Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[s34icknote] 28/11/2016 13:30

Due a re rate then Aleman .Pe of 7 = 35 p

[aleman] 28/11/2016 12:20

I can't remember the old Numis forecast but the new one dated 22/11 apparently has EPS of 4.7p for 2017 and 5.2p for 2018 with both dividends at 2.5p.

The Post Office contract is DX's largest at around £20m per annum.

[s34icknote] 26/11/2016 11:53

Trd boom !Dx to catch up ?

[s34icknote] 22/11/2016 13:13

Happy days In at 17.13 and have the div to come ?Triad next !

[speedsgh] 22/11/2016 11:15

DX (Group) PLC Successful HMPO tender improves forecast certainty – Zeus Capital -

DX (Group) PLC (LON:DX) has confirmed that it has won the retendering of the HMPO contract. We understand that it was a highly competitive process so retaining the contract is especially pleasing and provides greater confidence looking forward. We leave forecasts unchanged but with materially increased certainty on being achieved. The successful retender highlights that the quality of service DX has delivered over the previous contract periods has been respected. The only disappointment in today’s statement is the announcement that the decision on the resubmission of planning permission for the central hub has been delayed until mid-February. Today’s announcement de-risks FY17 and FY18 earnings and net debt forecasts and highlights the attractiveness of the prospective 2.5p dividend in each year. We leave forecasts unchanged meaning DX is trading on just 3.6x FY17 earnings and yielding c.14% on last night’s 17.75p closing price. A conservative 7x short term recovery multiple would equate to a 35p share price offering 97% upside, this would still only equate to 4.0x EV/EBITDA.

* Passport contract importance greater than its size – In annual Group revenue terms the contract is worth a relatively small c. £20m – £25m but we believe the volume it provides for the important Secure division underpin the better economics of this area relative to other areas of the business. The Secure business grew at c.9.0% last year and should continue to grow strongly on the strength of its service offering and retaining HMPO volumes will underpin its economics. We understand it was a very competitive process and to win it shows the strength of DX’s Secure offering. The only material change would appear to be the movement in length from 3+1 year contract term to a 2+2 year.

* Improved visibility in FY17 – Whilst we don’t ignore the intense competition in all areas of the deliveries market, the HMPO tender win materially increases the certainty of achieving FY17 PBT estimate of £12.2m. In turn, this would increase certainty on our assumptions of net debt falling to just c.0.3x EBITDA. With this low level of gearing it increases the attractiveness of the 2.5p dividend which equates to a 14% yield and is twice covered by earnings. Further confidence across the forecast period will be taken should Exchange experience a benign renewals season in January, albeit with the April renewal period still to come before the period end.

* Valuation – Placing a recovery multiple of 7x on FY17 earnings would equate to a DX (Group) PLC share price of 35p, offering c.97% upside. Arguably, this multiple is supported by the greater certainty today’s announcement provides to earnings. The shares have recently gone ex-dividend 1.5p (10th Nov) leading to a 1.75p fall to 17.75p. At this level the prospective yield of c.14.0% is appealing on a balance sheet with little debt as net debt declines to just 0.3x EBITDA.

[tuftymatt] 22/11/2016 10:37

Yes it's good news for DX and it's holders as it keeps things stable in the long standing part of the business.

Smart move by the CEO to hide some negatives in amongst the positive as alone they may be viewed as more damaging then when mixed with a big positive.

[skinny] 22/11/2016 10:30

Numis Under Review 19.50 - - Under Review

[imgoingallin] 22/11/2016 07:30

shows they've performed well in HMPO's eyes over the course of the last contract. The only way has got to be up today. :)

[baticle] 22/11/2016 07:11

Its Great News that they've kept the contract if only a testament to the fact that they can and have the ability to win business, this hopefully should bode well for the future and subsequently the share price.

[mrbridgeruk] 22/11/2016 07:03

DX, the independent parcels, mail and logistics operator, announces the outcome of the tender process for the contract with Her Majesty's Passport Office ("HMPO") and provides an update on current trading, including its planning appeal and revised proposal for a new distribution centre in the West Midlands.Following the conclusion of the tender process for the Home Office contract covering secure delivery services for HMPO, UK Visas and Immigration, National Crime Agency and General Register Office, the Company has been notified that it has been provisionally awarded the contract, which remains subject only to the finalisation of documentation. The contract is for an initial two year period and may be extended by up to two years.Trading conditions over the first half of the financial year have remained challenging and there has been margin pressure mainly resulting from a change in revenue mix. Nonetheless, with a number of major new contracts due to commence and an encouraging pipeline of new business opportunities under active negotiation, management remains focused on meeting its existing expectations for the full year.The Company's planning appeal and revised application to develop a new central hub in the West Midlands remains under consideration by the local authority and DX now expects a decision by mid-February. A further update on this will be provided in due course.

[stemis] 22/11/2016 00:39

I can't see that decline in DX Exchange is a major cause of DX. profit fall in 2016. In 2013 revenue was £70m. Assuming it's declined by 6% pa (which seems to have been guidance to analysts) then by 2015 it would be about £61m. A 10% drop in revenue equates to £6m. Now I know margins are high in this area but they aren't 100%. EBITDA was down £15.7m year on year. Perhaps DX Exchange contributed a few million of that on a marginal basis? Interesting the FD walked. Suggests poor cost/forecast control was really the heart of it?

Anyone got a view on the size of the Passport Office contract? It forms part of DX Secure which was £43m revenue in 2013. So what, £15-25m? Assuming similar margin then that's upto £2m EBITDA?

[s34icknote] 21/11/2016 16:27

Breaking upwards

[mrbridgeruk] 21/11/2016 12:01

On the March today, rumours on the contract?

[s34icknote] 21/11/2016 08:51

News on po contract any day now ?

[s34icknote] 21/11/2016 08:50

Spread not keeping up again18.37paid

[wskill] 21/11/2016 07:18

Yes well done to the company this is a welcome change .

[mrbridgeruk] 21/11/2016 07:04

AGM now starting at 10.30. Shows the company is listening to investors.

[s34icknote] 17/11/2016 18:50

Spread all over place again !

[s34icknote] 16/11/2016 11:03

Lots of sells

[davidosh] 16/11/2016 09:44

Do contact the company and ask why ? They think nobody cares about Agms and asking questions !

[tuftymatt] 16/11/2016 09:07

You have to think that this is premeditated following the past years performance and the big boys don't want to face the heat from a number of PI's.

[davidosh] 16/11/2016 00:33

Shocking attitude towards investors and shareholders in DX....

DX's Annual General Meeting will be held on 6 December 2016 at 8.30am at DX House, Ridgeway, Iver, Bucks, SL0 9JQ.

Enquiries:


DX (Group) plc
Bob Holt, Chairman M: 07778 798816
Petar Cvetkovic, Chief Executive T: 01753 631
624
Daljit Basi, Finance Director


Last year the Agm was at 10am which is still early but at least shareholders could possibly get there if travelling from within 50 miles of Iver in Bucks but an 8.30am start means shareholders need to get up at 4am and probably travel through London before the rush hour at 7am to stand any chance of getting there this year.

ShareSoc will be challenging this on behalf of shareholders as standard times for Agms are 11am or 2pm in the afternoon. I am surprised they did not wait for Christmas Eve lol.

Any shareholders should complain on the telephone numbers provided. This sort of behaviour is very disrespectful of shareholders.

[mrbridgeruk] 14/11/2016 08:04

I don't see it as catastrophic if dx fail to secure the contract. If they retain it the price could move to 30p very fast. Does anyone have any news on the hub?