Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[mrbridgeruk] 12/9/2016 11:03

This share is currently undervalue. There has been an announcement that profits are as expected. I would expect a large rise with the release of the annual accounts next week along with the dividend announcement.

[jbat] 08/9/2016 16:54

Fair points Aleman!

[aleman] 08/9/2016 16:04

And ereaders were the deathknell of book sales.



Ereader kills off traditional book publisher - you could have bought these for 55p in 2009 with a 7p dividend. The dividend has grown to 10p this year. Banshees wailed that book sales were dying throughout this period but Quarto paid out more then the market cap in dividends and rose 400% in that time.



DX exchange revenue fell 20% between 2006 and 2015. Call it 2% per year. I think some folk are getting overobsessed with this decline. Companies adapt. DX is profitable and making enough cash to pay the dividend and reinvest. The new supersite that opened last month shows they are modernising and they've just expanded with the aquisition of a couple of Scottish companies. They don't appear to be sitting about twiddling their thumbs. There are risks in execution and competition but the shares seem to offer a good risk/reward balance on current info if you are not a widow or orphan..

[speedsgh] 08/9/2016 15:09

Big question mark over the crebility of the current management imo. No room for any further slip ups. Await results with some trepidation which I hope will prove to be unfounded.

[my retirement fund] 08/9/2016 15:08

You summed it up well there imo

[hays1] 08/9/2016 14:47

The Net Asset Value of this business excluding intangibles is close to ZERO and the current market capitalisation is close to 35M. Therefore, people are betting £35M for the longevity of this business.DX is used by the legal profession and this is kind of dwindling by 5% per annum but I believe this could be offset by parcel delivery as people will nowadays ditch the high street and buy online. If DX takes this path then this will become a mini UPS or DHL and I don't think the company is big enough to compete with the big boys.I'm not invested in this company but it has all the credentials of the recovery companies that I invest in, which also pays dividend.I'm in two minds with regards to the future of this company?

[jbat] 08/9/2016 14:24

I wanted to poll peoples opinions here about the structural decline in the market for some aspects of DX's service offering. The board has already said that it expects higher volumes in some parts of the DX Exchange business to offset the long term decline in demand for legal documents to be sent in hardcopy form (it calls this 'e-substitution'), which it estimates will happen at a rate of 5%pa.

What is the long term outlook for DX shareholders, in your view? Is this a company that is inevitably going to get squashed in 15 years, or do we think there is a realistic prospect of it flourishing as far as the eye can see by adaptation?

[boonkoh] 08/9/2016 11:52

Big question mark is retaining the passport office contract for dx secure. Presume if that is lost or lower rates, we will see some profit pain. The question is though, is there any other logistics company in the UK who is a credible competitor for the passport contract?

[aleman] 08/9/2016 11:50

4 sites merged into newly opened supersite in the last month.

[jbat] 08/9/2016 11:34

D'oh! Should have seen that first - thanks speedsgh.

[aleman] 08/9/2016 11:05

A more simple way of looking at sustainability of the £5m/2.5p dividend is just to look at forecasts. Arden, Numis, Cantor and Zeus all show PTP and earnings rising for 2016 to 2017. Consensus is about £11.6m to £12.6m and 4.6p to 5.0p. Where's the problem with a 2.5p dividend there?

It's quite clear the market does not believe these forecasts. There could be quite a rerating if the consensus is met or exceeded. It's worth remembering we already had a June update, saying trading is in line. The shares are up a bit since then but it looks like the market is only really going to digest a potentially improving outlook when the final results are issued.

[speedsgh] 08/9/2016 10:33

DX website is currently showing 21/9 for release of Final Results...



EDIT - At least they haven't got them scheduled for a Friday. Let's hope they are released at 7am, not 4.30pm!

[jbat] 08/9/2016 10:24

When are the final results out?

[aleman] 07/9/2016 17:24

If you look at operating cashflow pre-working capital in note 10 of the interims, you see it looks set to possibly halve this year. I'd guess about £18m but H1 is a weak half and estimating the carry over of reduced margins into H2 is very much guesswork. The projected dividend of 2.5p costs £5m. Interest, tax and capex look like they could be maybe £6m or so? Seems to be plenty to pay the dividend on my guesswork but we need to see what level margins stabilise at. Receivables have come down to payables and that might reverse a bit and soak up a few £m. Assuming no further pressure on margins into next year, I think they've set the dividend fairly conservatively so they might actually be able to increase it - but that is a big assumption at the start of the sentence. Who knows what competitive pressures are doing?

[hays1] 07/9/2016 12:45

Is the dividend still guaranteed for this company? I'm not sure how they can sustain the dividend at this level?

[aleman] 01/9/2016 09:52

Thanks.

This will help save a few seconds.

[tallprawn] 31/8/2016 20:25

DX have mail shot the Essington village and surrounding areas to advise a revised planning application will be submitted for their proposed new DC.An exhibition for local residents has been setup for 8th Sept... They have also setup a new website at www.dxessington.com (Posting off an iPhone so apologies this isn't a link)

[neilyb675] 16/8/2016 21:13

Ummmmmm

resistance at 20.15 and 21.05, with a 4wk high 19.76, 13wk high 23.50....

Going up further IMO.

hxxp://www.barchart.com/cheatsheet.php?sym=DX..LS

[pictureframe] 12/8/2016 13:03

added - looking for another rise this afternoon

[andymunchkin] 11/8/2016 17:26

150000 sell fire exit

[andymunchkin] 11/8/2016 17:25

andymunchkin 11 Aug'16 - 15:30 - 1135 of 1154 0 0 edit

jbat


price movement suspicious alright,being pumped by alamaison et al the goons

[dangersimpson2] 11/8/2016 16:42

I doubt it's a short squeeze. In general the market is very squeezy at the moment - there is plenty of rubbish with highly 'adjusted' accounts on ridiculous ratings that keeps going up every day. Just that people don't short illiquid small caps on very low ratings with little debt like DX.

Whether it's insider trading I guess we will have to wait to find out.

[jbat] 11/8/2016 16:26

Right you are Aleman. There should be a statement, but even short squeezes need something to trigger them off. It's probably more likely that there is something in the news that is waiting to be declared, and somebody just couldn't resist putting on a few fat positions with their stockbroker or spreadbet provider. I hate insider traders.