Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[larva] 13/10/2016 16:01

Christmas is coming


Another profit warning coming as per usual?

[s34icknote] 11/10/2016 20:27

I really can't make the spreads out on this one and the little movements are strange

[s34icknote] 10/10/2016 09:07

Some early buying !

[s34icknote] 07/10/2016 15:58

Gate more increasing holding all good news Some one else finding value and a div too !!!

[rickyvader] 07/10/2016 15:36

Interesting skinny. About my only blue share today

[s34icknote] 07/10/2016 10:06

About to move up !

[freddie ferret] 06/10/2016 16:53

1.5p final divi to come. It will be interesting to see at what level they set next years interim divi.

[s34icknote] 05/10/2016 13:25

Seller clearing?

[s34icknote] 05/10/2016 12:35

Some one selling Pi or institution ?

[mrbridgeruk] 05/10/2016 08:26

Time to top up!

[mrbridgeruk] 05/10/2016 08:06

Time to top up!

[aleman] 28/9/2016 14:48

Massively undervaued for a consolidator. Only 2.1 x EBITDA and 0.5 x debt. An oportunist bid might try 30p but a competition between two could be much higher with 50-60p easily being rationalised by EBITDA multiples, without even considering strategic value.

[dangersimpson2] 28/9/2016 11:36

Given the economies of scale consolidation has to be the way this sector is going. DX. are acting as consolidator with smaller companies like Legal Post. Think it is only a matter of time before they become consolidatee though. With activist investors coming on board, long term investors annoyed at where the share price is, and management only owning <2% of the shareholding there is little to stop any offer being successful.

[davebowler] 28/9/2016 10:51

Zeus;
Deutsche Post DHL to acquire UK Mail for a 43% premium
UK Mail has announced a recommended cash offer by Deutsche Post valuing the business at c. £243m equating to 440p a share. This is a 43% premium to last night’s closing price of 307.5p and a 43.2% premium to the weighted average price over the previous three months. The offer assumes UK Mail shareholders will receive the interim dividend of 5.5p. Deutsche Post DHL has received irrevocable undertakings of c. 60% from shareholders and UK Mail management. On current year consensus UK Mail forecasts, the 440p offer price equates to a PER of c.20x earnings and c.10x EV/EBITDA. This compares with Deutsche Post trading on c. 13.5x PER and 7.7x EV/EBITDA
§ Deal rationale – The UK is Europe’s largest e-commerce market and will continue to see strong growth. Deutsche Post intends to leverage its e-commerce and parcel delivery expertise to drive efficiencies across the enhanced network. UK Mail has invested heavily in the recent past in both capacity and IT to offer potential growth and enhanced returns. The addition of Deutsche Post volumes into the network will, it is anticipated, drive economies of scale and allow for improved overhead recovery.
§ Potential for further sector consolidation to come – As highlighted below, the 440p offer price for UK Mail values it at a substantial premium to its three closest UK listed peers and highlights the strategic value of the asset, post several profit warnings. Even against Royal Mail, a potential consolidator, the current year PER premium stands c. 46%. We have seen several high profile deals in the wider sector over the last couple of years (Toll Group, Japan Post and TNT Express, FedEx) with companies looking to acquire growth and drive efficiencies. This is likely to continue as markets remain highly competitive, particularly in the UK.
§ DX valuation stands out – DX offers a prospective yield of c.13% on the 2.5p FY dividend announced at the FY results (21st September) on a balance sheet with just 0.5x net debt to EBITDA. Whilst there remains earnings risk, the current PER of c.4.0x appears to be discounting further disappointments. A positive announcement in November regarding the HMPO contract would alleviate a degree of the risk.

[s34icknote] 28/9/2016 09:56

Hi alemanDecided to buy in this morning Looks interesting . Fingers crossed for po contract .Sicknote

[aleman] 28/9/2016 09:12

I see the bid from Deutsche Post for UK Mail at a 43% premium has added interest to the sector today. I haven't heard anyone mention European consilidation with respect to DX. yet. Just something else to add into the mix.

[boonkoh] 26/9/2016 19:10

Gatemore further increased stake on Friday. Wonder when they will start their activist agenda and demand a shakeup.

[tuftymatt] 26/9/2016 12:50

Short term profit taking going on based on the fact all the news is out there and November / contract news is some way off??

[the patient investor] 22/9/2016 09:20

Ok , thanks, now very clear
Newbie ish

[aleman] 22/9/2016 09:16

Don't know what you mean by range. It's 5.2p eps 2.5p dividend.

[the patient investor] 22/9/2016 09:09

Sorry for my thickness
Whats the range (zeus example) 5-2.5? Etc

[jbat] 22/9/2016 09:08

Thanks Aleman.

11.9% (where we are now) is a silly dividend yield for a company if the market believes that it is not going to go bust, so once a little more confidence returns, it's likely we'll see a re-rating. If the price was to rise to push the yield to a more sensible 6%, then we'd be looking at a share price of circa 42p. This is still a long way down from the pre-collapse highs, but well off the ridiculous lows of 14p we've seen.

Thoughts?

[aleman] 22/9/2016 08:51

Some updated forecasts:

...... 2017 ....... 2018

Cantor .. 4.4p 2.5p
Zeus .... 5.0p 2.5p ... 5.2p 2.5p
Numis ... 5.2p 2.5p ... 5.7p 2.5p

[imranawan] 21/9/2016 14:30

Indeed speedsgh. They don't provide a segmental breakdown for op profits, they do for sales, so its difficult to ascertain the impact. We know that DX Exchange is the most profitable element, but don't know how much.