Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 17/11/2015 08:04

I think that's good news, but a bit difficult to tell without actual revenue or profit estimates. As far as I can see:

Unit completions +8%. Pretty much in line with the June guidance of "upper single digit increase" and well ahead of the actual 1H +3% which was down because of the pattern of affordable sales.

ASP £309k - this is the same as that reported for 1H which I find a bit disappointing, but maybe it reflects mix.

The real good news is perhaps the Private Rental Sector development: "Crest Nicholson has recently contracted to deliver to M&G Real Estate a further 227 units at Faygate, near Gatwick for private rental."

My opinions only. Please do your own research.

[a1pappadingdong] 17/11/2015 07:29

Trading statement not showing yet on ADVFNLink below to Investegate:http://www.investegate.co.uk/crest-nicholson-hdgs--crst-/rns/trading-update/201511170700089168F/

[shekari] 16/11/2015 19:23

I've sold at after buying at 5.90 and selling at 5.00 i feel depressed

[1gw] 16/11/2015 16:32

Bought some more at 508p.

Good update from TW today, and I think Crest consensus estimates for FY15 may be too low given as far as I can see they still seem to be in line with the guidance given on 16th June of "20-25% growth" for the full year which I think would imply roughly 47p-49p.

This year strikes me as unusual in that Crest has not given an IMS update ahead of the year-end, so tomorrow's numbers will include all changes from 16th June up to the year-end of 31st October.

Not long to wait now.

[wilkie_hk] 14/11/2015 09:57

Good finish to the week for CRST as they held their ground from Wednesday against a 2.5% decline in FTSE. Topped up with a gross cost of 500p on Tuesday and pretty confident that on the next sustained push these will clear 600p. Not bothered about the pull back from previous high's as it is only natural that many will want to take their money off the table having seen these climb from a medium term level of 350p to the mid 500's within 12 months. With the UK population almost certain to top 70 million in the next 20 years and no largescale housebuilding program, prices will at least be sustained at current levels with units becoming smaller and therefore cheaper to build and there will be increasing encoutragement for the likes of CRST to ramp up the supply.

[1gw] 13/11/2015 16:38

Bought some more at 502p. Crest up to about 14% of my portfolio now.

I am hoping that Crest can beat expectations with their TU on Tuesday, based on continued house price inflation on their sites since their June update. There's perhaps an outside chance that they will update the market on progress with their private rental sector initiative as well, although maybe it is a bit too early for that.

[essentialinvestor] 12/11/2015 14:57

In fairness it's an ugly day market wise.

[1gw] 12/11/2015 14:52

So much for that hope. "Conviction Buy" perhaps not as meaningful as it once was...

[1gw] 12/11/2015 11:38

Nice. Doesn't seem to be much reaction so far (perhaps because they've cut the target from £7.90?), but hopefully that can keep it above £5 at least until the trading update comes out on Tuesday.

[aishah] 12/11/2015 09:21

Goldman Sachs reiterate CONVICTION BUY. Price target=760p

[sweep stock] 10/11/2015 15:36

Very nervous market

[shekari] 10/11/2015 15:30

why are they just falling after being upgraded by so many brokers

[piwood] 10/11/2015 15:17

A bid for the company has always been there in the back ground due to the land bank value.

[1gw] 10/11/2015 11:45

That's a nice rumour to start!

[ppreston1] 10/11/2015 11:33

Also heavily overweight in CRST. Sales growth has been impressive and they have a valuable land bank. Can't see results disappointing imo. I think the sector could be due for consolidation. I was thinking they are perhaps being pushed down to make way for a possible bid?

[1gw] 10/11/2015 11:14

Tempted to buy more, but it's already an uncomfortably large part of my portfolio (well over 10%).

When in doubt I compare the price trend against Barratt Developments. Although it is down relative to BDEV over 1 day and 5 days, it is up over 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 1 year (at least according to my interpretation of the Yahoo! Finance charts). So although it could be that news of bad results is leaking out, I think it is more probable that it is just a short period of being pulled back a bit after some outperformance.

[ppreston1] 10/11/2015 10:58

Below 500p now. Very cheap. Is this being marked down for a reason I wonder?

[deadly] 10/11/2015 09:49

Good TS from RDW today:
Sales up 18%
Sales per outlet up 5%
Average sales price up 28 %.

....but no impact on CRST unlike the rest of the sector.
Definitely cheap now.

[buffetteer] 09/11/2015 19:11

I guess that's why it will recover and more !

[gp1948] 09/11/2015 18:32

It's always easy to doubt a company when it's share price is tumbling, but as Salpara said - sentiment has turned against this sector.

All the house builders, including CRST, have good forward visibility - probably more so than other industries in the UK. They are all very profitable businesses, on low ratings and paying good returns to shareholders.

Interest rates are on hold until late 2016 at the earliest, according to the BBC this week.

I hold BVS, CRST, RDW and TEF and I shall continue to hold until the market corrects its view of this sector. Projected P/E for CRST for the current year to 31st Oct 2016 = 8.6, falling to 7.5 for the following year.

Where else can you find a company with these sort of figures, selling a product of which there is a nationwide shortage and where that product is rising in price year on year?

[rhubarbcrumble] 09/11/2015 17:32

My sentiment exactly Salpara111.

I have sold out of my principal house builder, GFRD, on the basis that it is embarking on low margin civil engineering work. The moving averages there are diabolical and suggest perhaps an ongoing downtrend. Having sold out, however, I suspect that there will now be a sharp recovery. The situation here is less clear cut, but even here I am beginning to feel uncomfortable as I watch my profits disappearing before my eyes. DYOR.

[salpara111] 09/11/2015 12:38

Sentiment has really turned against the sector.
You would think that interest rates were going to rise to 4% in the next 12 months!
Not sure what to do in that I have a good profit here but equally I don't like sitting on a flatlining stock, equally I have a horrible feeling that as soon as I sell out the share price will rocket back to £6.