Cleantech Share Discussion Threads

[ianbrewster] 10/6/2009 21:12

pb

doh!! I was calculating using CBM bid and WTN offer to see if there was short term money to be made. Agree that CBM is still a cheap way into the 'new' WTN.

[waggle] 10/6/2009 20:10

pb, you are quite correct, IanB there has been money for nothing here as the discount (NOT PREMIUM) has narrowed from 35%+ to the current 5%ish level...

[pbracken] 10/6/2009 18:11

But it's not at a premium, Ian. The mid of WTN (LSE) equates to 68.25p for CBM. If I'm labouring under a misapprehension, please tell me.

[ianbrewster] 10/6/2009 18:00

Can't understand why CBM is at a premium to the WTN price on LSE (0.6%). Would expect there to some execution risk still in the CBM price.

[pbracken] 10/6/2009 15:17

170 cents in Toronto. It's only a matter of time....

[pbracken] 10/6/2009 12:08

Well, I wasn't long gone; can't overlook an opportunity to trade CBM at a 8% discount to yesterday's Canadian WTN close, given that today WTN will likely rise above 170 cents. Then again, WTFDIK?

[vizz] 07/6/2009 17:55

Coal stockpiles in West Virginia at record highs
Sunday, 07 Jun 2009
The top man with the West Virginia Coal Association said that the demand for coal is decreasing and is causing some companies to make adjustments.

This week Consol Energy idled it's longwall at the Blacksville 2 mine in Monongalia County until July. Consol will idle another operation in southern West Virginia.

Mr Bill Raney president of Coal Association said that's typical since stockpiles are full, electricity demand is down, and almost no metallurgical coal is being shipped overseas.

Mr Raney said that "When you lose an aluminum plant in Ravenswood that's 10% of the load at Appalachian. Multiply that across what's going on all across the country in reduced electricity needs and all of that is backing up."

He said that prices for coal have eroded tremendously since last year, but for the time being appear to have stabilized. Eventually the demand will pick back up once stockpiles, which are running at historically high levels, begin to be whittled down.

He added that "You can store so much at the mine and you can store so much at the power plant. Once you get all of that filled up you either have to burn it or quit supplying it."

[loafingchard] 05/6/2009 16:05

It appears the market was concerned by the lack of news on the merger , several posters here were expressing doubts even though both co's are under Audley's wing . Since the merger was confirmed on track both WTN and CBM's share price have performed well . My belief is that once the deal is complete and the dust settles some fresh broker notes will appear noting the potential of the enlarged group . By this time I reckon we will be over 120p , invested in a healthy diversified coalie with potential to produce 10,000,000 tons a year when the demand returns , and with a decent balance sheet many producers can only dream of .
There are noises to suggest China demand is reasonable for the foreseeable , and fingers crossed other BRIC and developing country and infrastructure spending can see us through to better times .
I remain long here and in WTN despite recent rises and have confidence the group will ride out this depression . I bought both on the way down , and averaged down along the way including CBM @ 20p . I'm in profit to a reasonable tune on my modest holdings and happy to wait for 200p in the next year or so . I expect coal and oil prices to continue slowly their recovery towards last years highs as inflation and money creation take hold , our profits here should start to move back up provided costs can be kept in check and demand remains reasonable .

All imho of course dyor . Long CBM/WTN

[crawford] 05/6/2009 13:52

Watch these soar this afternoon, 70p +

[lefrene] 05/6/2009 09:52

They must have read your comment kooba :¬)

[kooba] 05/6/2009 07:14

wtn close $c1.68 converts to 95p x .75 = 71.3p...should be a bit firmer 65-66p?

[ianbrewster] 03/6/2009 15:52

Don't understand why CBM is not tracking WTN price more closely

WTN down 3%, but CBM up 2%

CBM now only 4% off the takeover value

[assagai] 02/6/2009 16:00

WTN Flying over the pond +5%

[waggle] 02/6/2009 15:49

so we are back to a 10p spread between wtn canadian quote, adjusted by 75%, how can the MM's go on offering money for free??

[papillon] 02/6/2009 11:14

Well if pb put some of his "ill gotten gains" from CBM straight away into ATC his timing was good!! Up over 20% (I hold). I still like the look of good uranium stocks. I mentioned FTE yesterday; up 18% today.

[pbracken] 02/6/2009 09:48

Do think ATC has potential, bush, which is why I hold it. If the production issues are now sorted - and it has said they are - then the revenue and income figures make ATC a very attractive punt/investment.

[gowtn] 02/6/2009 02:09

By Jennifer Walter

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

TORONTO (Dow Jones)--Shares of Canada's coal-mining companies are higher Monday after a report said that China is emerging as a major coking coal importer.

In Toronto, Grande Cache Coal Corp. (GCE.T) is up 18 Canadian cents, or 12%, to C$1.67 on 3.6 million shares, while Western Canadian Coal Corp. (WTN.T) is up 14 Canadian cents, or 9.2%, to C$1.66 on 3.5 million shares. Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK), which owns Fording Canadian Coal, is up C$1.45, or 8.5%, to C$18.61 on 5.9 million shares.

Scotia Capital analyst Na Liu said in a research note that China's overall coal imports have increased this year to a record high of 9.16 million metric tons in April, a 3.4-million-ton increase from March.

China has traditionally relied on domestic coking coal for its steel production, but the Scotia Capital report said a number of factors are forcing the country to look to international markets.

The report focuses on the China coal market and doesn't mention any specific Canadian coal companies.

Liu said three main factors are driving the Chinese demand for imported coking coal. The report noted that Chinese production of coking coal has declined after the government closed several small mines due to safety concerns. Liu said these supply constraints have pushed local Chinese spot market prices higher than international prices, making imports the less-expensive option.

Liu also cited the Chinese government's "Revival Plan for the Steel Industry" report, which promoted increased steel production in China's coastal regions. Liu contends that this move towards more facilities on the coast will push more Chinese steelmakers away from the domestic coal producers, and make imported coking coal a more viable alternative.

David Jan, manager of investor relations at Western Canadian Coal, said the increase in demand from China for metallurgical coal is good news for Canadian producers.

"Producers in British Columbia in particular will benefit because we produce high-quality metallurgical coal, and we're very close to the Chinese market," Jan said. Jan said his company started to see an increase in demand for coking coal from China in early 2009.

"In our opinion, China's strong coking-coal import demands are likely to continue, and this year might represent a structural shift in the global coking-coal market, with China becoming a major importer," Liu said.

The Scotia Capital report said China has been sucking up most of the market surplus, but Liu noted that a sustained increase in demand for coking coal and iron ore will only begin once steel mills in the rest of the world begin to increase production.

[papillon] 01/6/2009 23:56

WTN did well on the TSE. DOW continues to rise. Some interesting posts there bushman and vizz. I favour good U3O8 stocks like KAH, URU, FTE, PRL, NU.. I think that nuclear fission has a great future because of the climate changing problems associated with fossil fuels and the unreliability of the wind!!

[vizz] 01/6/2009 19:19

Quite a list of negatives there Bush and still room for more! The huge gov spend explains much of the reason for the market rise, but this can only have a finite life and in due course must be repaid...by us! Also, with interest rates so low, the usual retreat of cash deposits provides little joy for investors and therefore the sight of stock prices continuing to rise is difficult for many punters to ignore. This is especially so with the backdrop of politicians and professionals with vested interests providing a positive spin that the media echos to the public who naturally want to believe it. It can all become self-fulfilling for awhile as we know from experience, but as your list of negatives highlights, it looks like a castle built on sand.

I'm also in favour of gold miners in the longer run, but the pog has a habit of drifting down over the northern summer months and I'm concerned the juniors could be treated like the baby with the bathwater in any sharp overall market correction, instead of offering a secure refuge. Ya win some, ya lose some and life goes on!

[bushtuckaman] 01/6/2009 17:30

Vizzy, I wouldn't be surprised if he's been using his ill gotten gains from here on ATC, I notice the volumes picked up today and I believe he is rather fond of them ;-)

Nice to see the regulars here have been enjoying the rally. I tend to agree with you though that it does have the look of a bear market rally.

The markets does seem irrational at present, or is it just forward looking markets see beyond the range of my binoculars. Massive US deficit, massive unemployment, declining house prices, plummeting gov tax receipts, huge gov spending/bailouts, insolvent or solvent banks - accountancy shenanigans, collapsing dollar, inflation/deflation, china growth/commodity stockpiling, huge printing like its going out of fashion. Lots to consider.

I've had the best results in the smallcap gold sector over the last few months and with pog knocking on the door on $1000 again the fundementals look great on alot of overlooked juniors. In the event of another market collapse it seems a safer place than bulk commodities and in the event of a new bull market inflation should go through the roof with all the QE so gold should also do well.

Time for a beer in the garden :-)
ATB

[vizz] 01/6/2009 13:04

I would seriously doubt Bushy that pb has done anything other than lock in his gain while it was available and at the first market opportunity he'll be back in like a tall dog! I also closed my position Fri afternoon in anticipation that WTN would fall back before the close over the pond as this was overdue after a good run. In my case though, I've been opening and closing my CBM position on an almost daily basis (seldom open more than a few days), as has been the case with other stocks I trade as Buy & Hold went out of favour with me early in this general market rally.

I view the whole market as being in a toppy Bear rally that's due for correction at some time, but meanwhile I'm not amiss to trade it as long as I'm not too exposed and standing close to the exit.

[bushtuckaman] 01/6/2009 12:21

Congrats Pb, thats a good 2 and a half months bit of work. Enjoy the Champagne/retirement, and dont forget to tell folks where you se your next multibagger ;-) All the breast.


Interesting bit on China today may help

[lizzie ii] 01/6/2009 08:51

But it is not yet directly linked, in the sense that CBM is still less than 75% of the WTN share price.

So buying CSM is still a cheap way into WTN.

[borchardt] 31/5/2009 10:56

WTN has always been a volatile stock and CBM now directly linked. WTN now on a powerful rising trend and CBM will follow. Expect volatility along the way.

[volvo] 30/5/2009 20:31

The 10pc drop on Friday for WTN from its highs will see this down Monday.It has risen to much.