Central African Mining Share Discussion Threads

[max101] 17/9/2009 16:36

Anyone got an opinion on our current management.

If "all the lights are on" and they're not a bunch of dodgy backhand deal cowboys, then there is no way they could consider trying to sell for pitiful 20p / share.

if another party shows an interest then we should be looking at double that easily.

[darklord2] 17/9/2009 15:15

Interesting...

Fot the first time in about 2 weeks the total volumn on the bid exceeds the offer 9.3m v 6.1m!!!

[dealy] 17/9/2009 15:08

They should add (3): market continuing to rocket

[darklord2] 17/9/2009 14:41

continued...

"We always considered a position in CAMEC to have downside protection with upside optionality, so are disappointed with the former coming to bear rather than the latter, and also not to see a higher premium. Certainly, if the stock trades materially below 20p we see value as we think that a bid is more likely than not given the quality of the assets.
Two key factors could trigger improved returns: (1) CAMEC shareholders holding out for a higher bid; or (2) a counter bid, notably from Chinese parties which, in our view, would see the cobalt off-take as a key strategic holding. However, we would expect any Chinese bid to be for only 29.9% of the company (or alternatively offer to fund an equity raise to take them to 29.9%), as the Chinese typically prefer off-take in exchange for an equity stake rather than outright control of mining companies."

[darklord2] 17/9/2009 14:40

Ambrian

"After increasing press speculation this certainly doesn't come out of the blue; however, we had previously expected a higher premium. The bid price of 20p compares with our SOTP DCF valuation of 28p de-risked (ie, with growth projects funded) or 21p risked (higher discount on unfunded growth projects). Thus, we see fair value closer to 25p in the short term, but this does have to be compared with the valuation that the market would give to CAMEC in the absence of any bid."

[darklord2] 17/9/2009 14:38

It seems 18p is a level on the bid, 3.9m sat there thats about 66% of the total bid volumn

[darklord2] 17/9/2009 14:37

If the board, the investors and teh wider market view 20p as a fair price then its a fair price...

What would make you happier 20p or 30p ;o)

[strangeglow] 17/9/2009 14:34

ldmachin

agreed.

I think I would be happy with 20p.

[ldmachin] 17/9/2009 14:29

dealy,

They've announced their intentions... so no really 'insider' dealing. As long as they declare any holding change over the 1% threhold, their should be no problem.

[dealy] 17/9/2009 14:26

LD

They can't do that as that would be insider dealing.

[ldmachin] 17/9/2009 13:56

Of course, what ENRC should be doing now is buying as many CFM shares on the open market as possible. The more shares they buy at sub 20p, the less they will have to pay out if their 20p offer gets the go ahead. They could save quite a few £million.

[dealy] 17/9/2009 13:49

The board are right to ensure that shareholders get the opportunity to consider an offer of 20p per share. The board would be crazy to reject such an offer off hand. Given how screwed up everything has been over the last 12 months shareholders maybe satisfied with 20p.

[josels] 17/9/2009 13:45

now shorters have a reason more to buy cfm, the negotiations are for real

[armsteel] 17/9/2009 13:39

well at least enrc prefers us to african minerals, any guess why, culd it be that 20p is to cheap

[darklord2] 17/9/2009 13:28

For your info strangeglow the above quote was from Ambrian

[darklord2] 17/9/2009 13:25

Im not sure of the relevance of mentioning BSY and ITV. As you are aware BSY bought into ITV as a spoiling tactic to stop Virgin from making a bid. This later fell foul of the CC...

If your questioning what i wrote by all means i will find the broker and you can call them as they are the words of the analyst not me

Im not sure why you think Im worrying either all im doing is stating facts and quoting others to back those facts up. 3p is a bit late isnt it i know many who bought at 2p..!! What took you lol..

[strangeglow] 17/9/2009 13:15

darklord

bskyb held well in excess of 30 percent of itv for months after their bid was turned down,and it was only after they were forced to dispose of the excess they complied.

if enrc are the only game on,and they walk then 10p is imminent.

I said all along that 20p looked about top dollar against market cap and pe.

we all hoped for more but that looks unlikely at present.some of us like me who made a good take from 3p came back in for the t/o on a reduced holding.

seems its the ones who came to the party late who are worrying ,and so they should.

[darklord2] 17/9/2009 12:34

Simple primrose dont invest in UK shares

[darklord2] 17/9/2009 12:34

Broker note... new price target 20p down from 28p

"As such, given that: any counter-bid is completely speculative at this stage; institutional shareholders are in a minority (ie, it will be difficult to force a higher bid); and a 20p cash bid crystallises value for all shareholders, we update our Buy recommendation and 28p target price to a HOLD recommendation with a 20p target until ENRC clarifies its position"

Ladies and gents we have facts i.e management have been very happy to take talks to an advanced stage @ 20p and we have speculation i.e a white knight

[primrose] 17/9/2009 12:18

This has been going on for weeks... There is no chance of a counteroffer
and 20p is the maximum.

At least your earlier post MM was spot on. PI's aren't that unimportant
though - or at least whilst PI's are, their money isn't.. and yet
again the corrupt market/MMs will steal PIs money. All uk shares are
a casino scam and have been for years..

Market reform was promised this time last year.. Nothings changed - why ?

Because the system is controlled and perverse. Why should HMG care ? They
get stamp duty on every share buy. If most PI's studied their share trading
accounts over the last year, they'd find that on average they had around
25000 pounds, which is currently still 20% to 45% down, but that they've
paid in stamp duty around 15000 pounds... (!) - And thats if they've just
bought and sold shares trading around 2-3 times per week. Some people
buy and sell shares more often than that per day. So your 25000 pounds
is up to 10000 pounds down, yet you've still paid stamp duty tax to HMG
of around 15000 pounds, and bent MMs have stolen your 10000 pounds lost..

Uk shares is a timewaster. Average PIs with around 25k have also paid
around 5000 pounds to brokers like selftrade over the last year who are
in MMs pockets too... HMG/MMs and brokers only ever make money out of
the markets. PIs are forever only being fleeced and robbed. Plus for the
4 in 100 PIs who actually do make any good money from shares - they then
have to pay tax on any gain.. lol !

[midasx] 17/9/2009 12:04

Not if Vale come in for a full bid. Next week will be interesting.

I would guess we will settle here until further news.

[eish] 17/9/2009 11:45

ditto:
BEI like the line about any counterbid being unattractive as it would leave the current management in place.

[utterly pointless] 17/9/2009 11:44

From Markets Live Alphaville

MJAnother "interesting" story we have followed here also came around yesterday
BEYou mean Camec?
MJI do.
BEAlthough the price caught people off guard.
MJIt was a full 10 pence lower than rumoured
BEYup
BECan you give us a Camec price Miles?
MJDown 0.25p at 18.5p
MJAs Cityunslicker notes, this one was, how should it be put, was already widely priced in
BEAmbrian stuck out a note on this last night, which explains in slightly euphemistic terms why retail shareholders are unlikely to chisel out any more cash.
BEAfter increasing press speculation this certainly doesn't come out of the blue; however, we had previously expected a higher premium. The bid price of 20p compares with our SOTP DCF valuation of 28p de-risked (ie, with growth projects funded) or 21p risked (higher discount on unfunded growth projects). Thus, we see fair value closer to 25p in the short term, but this does have to be compared with the valuation that the market would give to CAMEC in the absence of any bid.
BEWe always considered a position in CAMEC to have downside protection with upside optionality, so are disappointed with the former coming to bear rather than the latter, and also not to see a higher premium. Certainly, if the stock trades materially below 20p we see value as we think that a bid is more likely than not given the quality of the assets.
Two key factors could trigger improved returns: (1) CAMEC shareholders holding out for a higher bid; or (2) a counter bid, notably from Chinese parties which, in our view, would see the cobalt off-take as a key strategic holding. However, we would expect any Chinese bid to be for only 29.9% of the company (or alternatively offer to fund an equity raise to take them to 29.9%), as the Chinese typically prefer off-take in exchange for an equity stake rather than outright control of mining companies.
BEGiven that a counter-bid would leave existing CAMEC management in place, and wouldn't necessarily leave the company with new cash to develop projects, there is an argument that a 100% cash bid would be preferable to some shareholders. Also, 20p does offer a premium to CAMEC's share price since the beginning of the year (although obviously at a discount to last year's share price).
BEAs such, given that: any counter-bid is completely speculative at this stage; institutional shareholders are in a minority (ie, it will be difficult to force a higher bid); and a 20p cash bid crystallises value for all shareholders, we update our Buy recommendation and 28p target price to a HOLD recommendation with a 20p target until ENRC clarifies its position.