Celsius Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davydoo] 17/1/2014 09:42

15p! wow that's good business for the company, and therefore the other shareholders.

Interesting though that Jeff didnt buy himself, he has previously bought substantial amounts of SKYW and AVAP at below mid when prices were already low.

[russman] 16/1/2014 19:55

I am wary of putting a NAV value on AVAP's options.

[davydoo] 16/1/2014 14:35

I doubt you'll see an offer at NAV, but I agree a share swap is the likely option, its what they did previously with the hedge fund Oceanwood, and it keeps AVAPs existing cash and finance facilities available for their ongoing ATR roll out to Virgin.

[davebowler] 16/1/2014 13:43

Yes as AVAP trades I think at a premium to its asset value it would be best to offer NAV to us by way of a share swap in my opinion.

[davydoo] 15/1/2014 08:10

Following AVAP growth and recent share price rises, their share in CLA is equivalent to less than 15% of their market cap now. Or put another way, buying what they dont own is less than 10% of their current market cap.

Time to take it out Jeff.

[albanyvillas] 13/1/2014 11:41

Liberum;
Avation plc (BUY, TP 150p)

New finance facility improves balance sheet flexibility

Event

Avation has agreed a new loan facility secured on the company's fleet of 5 unencumbered Fokker 100 aircraft. The funds are on standby and can be drawn to a maximum of $9.5m. The loan facility has been provided by an Australian-based institution on "usual commercial terms".

Liberum view

The new debt facility is important for Avation as it demonstrates the company's balance sheet flexibility to to fund the capital requirement arising from the acquisition pipeline. We previously estimated that there is $32m of equity that could be released from refinancing / new debt facilities. The new debt facility follows the recent sale of two ATR72-600 aircraft to a third party at the end of November 2013 which enhanced Avation's liquidity position and highlighted the hidden value on the balance sheet from the 27 remaining purchase options / purchase rights.

Avation is trading on a CY14 EV/EBITDA of 7.84x which represents an 30% discount to US-listed aircraft leasing companies. Our 150p price target implies 23% upside.

[harrogate] 13/1/2014 10:15

Only kidding I know what the angle on CLA is!!

[davebowler] 13/1/2014 10:04

Discount to NAV - I can't resist a bargain.Anyway if AVAP is good so is CLA, and I hope and expect in due course that AVAP will take it over.

[harrogate] 13/1/2014 09:59

So why you all holding CLA and not AVAP !!

[davebowler] 13/1/2014 09:57

That note might be out of date -if you look at the header it says 9 Sept.
Liberum has a note today on AVAP;
Avation plc (BUY, TP 150p)

New finance facility improves balance sheet flexibility

Event

Avation has agreed a new loan facility secured on the company's fleet of 5 unencumbered Fokker 100 aircraft. The funds are on standby and can be drawn to a maximum of $9.5m. The loan facility has been provided by an Australian-based institution on "usual commercial terms".

Liberum view

The new debt facility is important for Avation as it demonstrates the company's balance sheet flexibility to to fund the capital requirement arising from the acquisition pipeline. We previously estimated that there is $32m of equity that could be released from refinancing / new debt facilities. The new debt facility follows the recent sale of two ATR72-600 aircraft to a third party at the end of November 2013 which enhanced Avation's liquidity position and highlighted the hidden value on the balance sheet from the 27 remaining purchase options / purchase rights.

Avation is trading on a CY14 EV/EBITDA of 7.84x which represents an 30% discount to US-listed aircraft leasing companies. Our 150p price target implies 23% upside.

[russman] 10/1/2014 20:18

Annual Report 2013: Report of Directors Page 5 > 7,039,490 to 8,855,365. Shares in the holding company.

[davydoo] 10/1/2014 12:16

Thanks davebowler

davs, i presume theyre assuming Thomas Cook leases ended in 2015, and maybe continue at a lower rate?

Ive only just scanned it and already seen an error, CLA havent paid 0.5c divs in the last 2 years.

[dasv] 10/1/2014 12:09

thanks for the note from the house broker.

Does anyone know the reason for the tail off in revenue/profit in WHIrelands projections for 2015 and 2016?

[davebowler] 10/1/2014 11:44

09/01/14 WHIreland UK Equity Research:
Capital Lease Aviation - 2013FY results highlight valuation anomaly - Download report



hxxp://cl-aviation.com/files/CLA_WHIreland_short_note_9_sep_2013.pdf

[davydoo] 10/1/2014 09:37

Russman, where have you seen Jeffs deemed interest at 1.8m?

I mentioned previously that CLA and AVAP no longer publish lease rates, however I have tried to calculate the lease income on the recent purchase which is leased to Condor.

Page 51 of the 2013 accounts shows lease income expected 'within one year'. The difference between 2013 and 2012 is $2.23m p.a or $185k a month. (they bought the fifth plane just before year end and sold the old fokkers just before the previous year end, so i think the numbers are reliable)

They paid $26.5m for it.

If correct, less than a 10% yield sounds high considering it is not a new plane. At the recent AVAP roadshow management talked about leasing planes (mainly describing the ATRs i think) at a monthly rate of 1% of the purchase price. Then describing the residual value at the back end of the plane's life.

Only back of an envelope calculations, but interesting.

[russman] 09/1/2014 18:31

I am wondering how Jeff's deemed interest has escalated by 1.8m shares in the year when share capital and % has remained static. I assume it is deemed to be immaterial. I presume it is a movement at Epsom Assets held by Vidacos nominees.

[envirovision] 09/1/2014 15:43

Certainly seems to be plenty of free stock available to buy though

[davydoo] 08/1/2014 19:38

They've bought 1 plane in the last 5 years, I'm not expecting, or buying because of, expected fleet growth anytime soon

[russman] 08/1/2014 19:09

They need a high cash float to cover the timing issues, overheads & any mishaps on interest payable and receivable. Gross Cash Yield 12%. You would have to wait 2 years to rake up the equity to acquire another plane. 4 Aircraft, overhead $1m, m/cost of their loan finance 9.75%. Something needs to change.

[harrogate] 08/1/2014 16:35

I have been an AVAP holder for years and always shied away from CLA since all the action is in AVAP. There has almost been no period when this wasn't the right decision. I can see that CLA is now getting a lot of attention and I am looking again. I still feel that all the buys keep getting soaked up and without AVAP doing the buyout I could be stuck here for a long time. I could imagine all the cost savings you talk about getting cancelled by recharges from AVAP to CLA. I am not sure that the buyout is on the agenda actively either.

[davebowler] 08/1/2014 16:21

And higher profits - by c.$500k

[dasv] 08/1/2014 09:28

Yes - exactly - high cash balance and reduced admin costs.

[davydoo] 08/1/2014 09:16

looking at the last accounts again, they may not even need to refinance to repay the loans, they had over $5m cash at year end, and have a plane on lease to US Airways generating cashflow with no debt against that aircraft, plus no more wages to Mr Ferre!

[davydoo] 08/1/2014 09:08

Originally loans were due to repaid in March, possibly extended until June (details below)

I would have thought they could easily refinance the 2 A321s on lease to Thomas Cook following the recent lease extentions.

APPENDIX
Further disclosures made pursuant to AIM Rule 13 in relation to the Bridge loan provided by the Junior Lenders (the "Junior Loans"):
- The Junior Loans are comprised of three separate loans advanced by each of Soeren Ferré, Fleet Solution Consulting Pte Ltd and Epsom Assets Ltd, and are all on the same terms.
- Soeren Ferré is a director of the Company.
- Soeren Ferré is a director of Fleet Solution Consulting Pte Ltd a company he controls.
- Robert Jeffries Chatfield, a director of the Company, is also a director of Epsom Assets Ltd.
- The total amount of the Junior Loans were $5.0m.
- The Junior Loans have an interest rate of 9.75% per annum.
- The Junior Loans are for a term of nine months extendable up to 12 months at the option of the Company.
- The Junior Loans are unsecured.