Bunzl Share Discussion Threads

[ajbche] 22/1/2003 00:15

Hi Doctorbird,

Well must agree with your views. Having watched the market this morning, it's now sold off for the second day in a row, off a fairly positive open. I'm convinced the FTSE is now heading for 3600 and that the banking sector has another 10 % fall left before it starts to level out. The only thing that will prevent these falls from happening is either 1. Saddam goes into exile or 2. we get consolidation in the banking sector to generate some excitement in what is at present a very gloomy sector.

I expect neither of these 2 things to happen soon, so I expect this sector to be further sold off, before the heavyweight bottom fishers start coming in.

Andy

[doctorbird] 21/1/2003 17:38

indalo, I am a great fan of triangles, mainly because my records confirm that they are profitable, unlike some other areas I have tried, to my cost. On the BOC chart I presume that the symmetrical triangle that you refer to started 27/8/02. I have been concentrating on the more recent ascending triangle that started 5/11/02 which has the same bottom trendline that has been challenged today. There is also a longer term descending/wedge which started 8/7/02. Other signals that encouraged my short were the preponderance of bearish candles recently and the narrowing Bollinger bands. The attraction of BNZL as a short is that H & S patterns are so reliable. However I am wary of a market rally just now. If the H & S break is a success there should still be plenty of time to short because the outcome could take many weeks.

[indalo] 21/1/2003 16:37

Doctorbird - BOC completed a symetrical triangle today by the break down on heavy volume...I am looking to short on a retest of the broken support at 875ish. Good call!

I am also short BNZL from 395...My only hesitation is the recent director buying. One of them bought £2.5m worth!!

Mind you, wouldn;t be the first time a director has misunderstood/misjudged his own business...Besides which the market doesn't seem to agree..and the cahrt is dire!

[yas0] 21/1/2003 15:51

Andy,

it certainly looks grim. im kicking mysaelf for not shorting boc yesterday, i was ready to go for it but just held off.oh well.

certainly the market has failed to break 4000 after many attempts and whilst i think at some stage we will slip back into a range the shorters certainly have the edge short term. But never rule out a bounce.

cheers

yas

gutted i closed my ba.e out too early as well, that would have been a good short.

[doctorbird] 21/1/2003 10:41

ajbche, thanks for those views. I also am wary of possible startling market moves and hold very little at present. Staying with BOC short for now. Watching BNZL. I am not surprised at BARC and would not try to catch the turn, it could well have a couple more down days before that.

[ajbche] 20/1/2003 19:10

Hi Yas,

I am currently neutral on BOC. Given the carnage of the last week or so the price has held up quite well, and at this level I have it at the bottom end of the short price trading range. If the markets drift lower over the course of the week (as I think they now might) and BOC breaks 860 then I may go long, but I definitely wouldn't be entertaining a short at these levels, at this moment in time.

Pre-occupied with the banking sector at the moment, feel many of the stocks are at the bottom of their ranges, but may get this horribly wrong so running with very tight stop losses.

Happy investing.....if you can in these very testing times !!!

Andy

[yas0] 20/1/2003 14:07

andy...


are you short BOC???

[yas0] 20/1/2003 13:33

Andy,

you may well be right...however i am staying out of the banking sector at the moment. They should be due a bounce since they have been hammered hard lately.

[ajbche] 20/1/2003 11:19

Hi Yas,

Welcome back. I trust you had a good holiday. Last week was an indifferent week for me, as I found it very hard to read the short term market trends. I must admit for the first time in a long time feeling very nervous in this market. On the one hand we have all the depressing economic and corporate data along with the threat of war, to pull back the markets, but on the other hand if Saddam decides to 'up and run' tomorrow, we would I feel have a HUGE short term relief rally.

I have as of this morning opened some fairly big longs in Barclays, Lloyds and Abbey National, as I feel the whole banking sector is totally oversold in the short term. These are riskier bets than I would normally undertake but I think the short term upside potential outweighs the downside one.......only time will tell.

Have fun and be profitable.

Andy

[yas0] 20/1/2003 10:25

Andy,

Hi there and hope you had a profitable week. I am back from tenerife and closed my emi long this morning for a good profit. I was going to sell last week whilst on holiday and would have made a lot more but i thought i would hold on till today.....there you have it.

i dont know quite what to trade at the moment. I am lookimg at a rolls royce short maybe but perhaps not so close to the 1 pound mark since it has bounced off this before.

what are you up to??

cheers

yas

[doctorbird] 19/1/2003 22:26

Hello ajbche, I saw you post on the Barc thread and came to have a look. Very interesting. I understand from what you say that you are working on a short timescale and don't consider the technical picture too relevant in the current market. Even so I have put up these charts of the broader view which show a two year head and shoulders formation that was confirmed by the sizeable fall in December. Only a small proportion of these fail although a high number have pullbacks, and that is quite possibly what is happening now. If so, this would be the time for a long term short. The recent movement has had shorter bars so I shall wait to see the direction of the break from this consolidation.
I am short BOC from just under 890, looking for a break of the trendline of the lows starting 11th Nov.

[ajbche] 10/1/2003 09:01

Hi Yas,

Hope you have a nice time in Tenerife. At least the weather will be better than it is here.

I decided this morning to open a small short on SHELL again. Ideally I would have liked it a little higher than the £412 I got, but my gut feel is that the UK market is pretty bearish at the moment, in the short term, as this is the second time in a week that the DOW has shown a near 200 point gain with very little or no follow through in our markets in the morning. This I feel does not bode well for the FTSE and we could test lows of 3600 - 3500 short term if there is a sell off in the US.

I am treading warily at the moment, and doing quick trades for quick gains until I see some difinitive direction in the market.

Anyhow have a good holiday and I'll talk to you soon.

Andy

[yas0] 09/1/2003 15:45

andy,

i did not go long boc but i am certainly waiting for it to move towards 900p for a short.there is strong resistance there, i think when i last loked since nov it has failed 4 times, and if you look further back one can see that there is more indication of resistance levels here. I notice the lows from 900p are becoming higher each time however.

my eyes are focused on shell(oil is coming off last few days as expected on posssible production increases from opec and higher than expected us inventory levels......

i am looking to cut back a few positions since i am away next week to tenerife for a week and would rather be out than in the market.

emi is going ok.....but am looing to get back in ba. as a short near 130 if possible.

[ajbche] 09/1/2003 15:09

Hi Yas,

Hang in there, spreadbetting on the markets can be very much like the gain and pain you have / are experiencing over the last few months. At one stage last year I lost half of my bank and really doubted I should be playing in the markets, as I was calling everything wrong. That was in October of last year.....and now, well I'm going through a purple patch, having regained all I lost and added another 50% on top.

Th important thing for me was to analyse what I did wrong and try and learn from those mistakes. I will still make msitakes but at least I minimise the downside.

Anyhow.....back to stocks....did you open a long on BOC this morning. I doubled last night's position this morning and am now sitting on a healthy gain with it trading around 872, I'll be closing soon as it's now in what I call the short term neutral zone.

Hope you have luck with your shorts and watch those banks !!

Regards,

Andy

P.S....I'm a little annoyed a didn't have the bottle to stay with my SHELL short a little longer....it too now sits in the neutral zone !

[yas0] 09/1/2003 14:18

i think i would have seen stocks fall a bit more yesterday if uk had been open a little longer like the dax, dow was off only 60 when uk closed but ended 145 down, but when ftse opened today us futures were indicatiing positive. But such is life.

[yas0] 09/1/2003 14:16

andy,

well after a very solid run at he back end of last year i have started 2003 badly. I have taken profits in BRIT aEROSPACE this morning, simply beacause i just had too many shortsopen, but i aim to be back in if it gets near 130 ish again for sure.

next gets more grim, and a few others are causing pain. I have EMI as a long, and will wait for boc to reach near 900p b4 shorting it.

i see your lloyds timing was spot on.........well done

[ajbche] 08/1/2003 20:32

Hi yaz,

Looks like I was right about the pullback after Bush's annoucements. This is what I hoped for, if we can get some of these stocks sold to ridiculous levels it may well be time to pile in for any type of bull run, which given time will come.

Did you trade BOC today. I opened a short at around 886 then closed around 862 and then opened a long right near the end of the day at 8.54. Great trading stock, wish they were all this easy to predict.

Good luck and have fun tomorrow.

Andy

[ajbche] 08/1/2003 13:40

Hi Yaz,

Sorry to hear about your Next shorts. I guess you are going to need a couple of pretty negative days to offset the trading statement. I think all retailers once they have discounted their 'sales' period are going to have a tough time over the coming year, so hopefully the gloss will come off next's share price for you soon.

In general I see the markets treading water until the Iraq situation is resolved one way or another. Personally I'm doing quick in and out trades, such as with Lloyds and Barclays, buying them at the lows this morning and selling for a quick profit and lunchtime.

I see Bunzl sideways trading in a similar vain to the main markets until the war issue is resolved, so I would not expect much movement either way from its current levels. I agree that £4 looks like it's short term upside resistance point (which is why I closed my long at this level the other day).

As always good luck with your trading and I'll speak to you later

Regards,

Andy

[yas0] 08/1/2003 09:45

andy,

next looking slightly better now........ubs repeats buy advice and hsbc downgrades from add to reduce following todays statement. I have put a stop at 805 since if the 800p resistance is breached then i can see it moving sharply higher. I have rerad the trading statement carefully and note that like for like sales were actually down outside the discount period so this does not bode well going forward in my view especially if the consumer tightens. But the fact is i am nursing a loss and thats that.

back to bunzl. I notice it has had difficulty breaching 400p in the past few days...morgan stanley gave it a boost the other day, but my view is sell a day or two after a broker recommendation. I would not short anymore of these but am holding on for the moment.

any view??


cheers

[yas0] 08/1/2003 08:43

morning andy.....

yes i must admit i am being made to look rather foolish.....i had two shorts on next but have been closed out on one.there will be resistance at 800p since this was a suport level previously..........we will see...what i need is a down day in the states and no silly write ups from brokers raising their estimtes.this normally is a sure fire sign to sell but on the day boosts the stock.

i have closed my long in lloyds yesterday..am not opening anymore positions today until i get this next short sorted either way....

the rest of my screen is looking red which is okay....just next is proving to be the thorn in my side..

good luck today and i will post again soon..

cheers

yas

[ajbche] 08/1/2003 08:28

By the way Yas.....went long on Lloyds and Barclays this morning, as I see limited downside but huge upside potential.

Good luck with your plays today

Andy

[ajbche] 08/1/2003 08:18

Whoops Yas.....just seen NEXT's trading statement and share price.....I hope you tight stop loss in place.

Speak to you later.

Andy

[ajbche] 08/1/2003 00:27

Hi Yas,

Sorry about all the typo's in the previous note. I was typing to quickly and then didn't review the note. Hope you get the gist of what I was meaning to say anyway.

Have fun,

Andy

[ajbche] 08/1/2003 00:24

Hi Yas,

Much better day today. I too am predominantly short, as I think the US markets have risen too far too fast on basically inconclusive economic evidence and a lot of hot air. As for our market, well it longs very bearish short term especially if the US pulls back as I think will happen towards the end of this week.

Hope you opened a short on SHELL at around 422 this morning. I piled in and closed out not long ago at 415. 7p in one day is a big enough profit for me. Keep an eye on this one I think there will be more shorting opportunites in the next few days.

I decided to keep my big Vodaphone short open, as I think it will succumb to downward pressure towards the end of the week.

By the way another good trading range stock is BOC. Shell it around the £9-£9.10 mark and buy it around the £8.60-£8.70 mark. I've made good money on this one too and trade it like I do with shell.

Good luck with the shorts (I'll be watching NEXT to see how they get on tomorrow).

Regards,

Andy