Bunzl Share Discussion Threads

[ajbche] 07/1/2003 16:41

Hi Yas

Yes, I've been in and out of SHELL all day long. Finally closed my last short just before the market closed. Even my Vodaphone short has come into the money. The pullback has happened a little sooner than I expected. I even went long on Lloyds at around £4.17 and closed at around £4.22 for a quick win, so today has been a very good day (I promise you not all days are like this, but I do seem to get it more right than wrong).

Anyhow I'm totally flat going into tomorrow as I'm not sure how the markets are going to react after BUSH opens his bag of goodies. My feeling is that the US will fall as the markets really are buying the rumours and selling the facts at the moment....which is what may be happening to NEXT. I must stress I do not follow this share, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the sheep out there buying into any rumours that may be doing the rounds and then selling on tomorrow's trading statement. I suggest you keep a tight stop loss (which I think you are going to do) and see what tomorrow brings....but I stress again I don't track this share.

Good luck my friend, and I'll talk to you again tomorrow.

Andy

[yas0] 07/1/2003 15:55

Andy,

I see shell heading even lower...there is talk todaY THAT SAUDI /OPEC MAY BE INCREASING PRODUCTION IN EXCESS OF AMOUNTS ALREADY INDICATED.THIS MAY SERVE TO DEPRESS CRUDE PRICE..FURTHER IF THE WAR WITH iRAQ IS SWIFT (AS EXPECTED) THEN THIS WILL PUT DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON OIL...........AND TECHNICALLY YOUR TRADING IDEA WAS CERTAINLY RIGHT. tHE ONLY FAILURE WAS MINE NOT TO GET IN ON IT!!!

[yas0] 07/1/2003 15:29

Andy,

good to see you doing well at the moment.......

closed my long in lloyds....didnt lose much but it dents the confidence..

but the one that has caused problems today is next....it is running away..i am very nervous ahead of statement tomorrow.....if it shows trading has not been that bad then im stuffed....may have to set a tight stop on this tonight.....


i missed shell this morning , mainly because i was taking a pounding on next ...but i like the idea of shorting it in the 20's and selling it down towards 400 p ish.......lets wait for the next bounce on it.

i will look at boc, its not one i can recall trading b4

cheers

yas

[yas0] 07/1/2003 09:29

Andy,

I think some technical indicators do suggest
that dow may reach 9000 but for me it has run up too fast a nd a pullback is necessary.........with respect to Shell i see that back in May /June was a good time to go short (technically) but i just didnt notice this one..however as you point out since august it has had great difficulty going past 320-30 and has been a great range trade for those who noticed it. It is not far from those levels and i think if it goes a few pence higher i will put a short term short on it.

If there is a pullback in the states (and hence the uk) then i will be more than happy since i am mainly short...e.g. retailers (next), - trading statement tomorrow so we will see how that turns out, ba. sxs,longs are few and far between e.g. lloyds for short term trade.

cheers

yas

[yas0] 06/1/2003 10:15

Andy,

some good notes there,

i am still in bunzl but may soon get out.if it goes above 410p then i will accept defeat. Morgan stanley have today gone overweight from underweight. I am not perturbed by this as a broker upgrade is normally a good time to exit a stock (in my experience anyway, as by the way is a tip in the press.)

i am interestred in your calls in Shell and will monitor this closely.

I am short brit aero because i feel that there is a lot of uncertainty re their contracts, and there is tension in theior relationship with the MOD. There was a piece in the times yesterday 9or was it telelgraph) citing there may be another contract lost to the italians. I got this one right two days b4 the last profit warning, and the chart looks grim, but as always we will see.

p.s. are you neutral or long bunzl???

regards

yas

[ajbche] 03/1/2003 16:57

Hi Yas,

It's nice to talk to someone who doesn't want to ramp or de-ramp a stock. I don't mind sharing what sectors or stocks I deal with. Basically I too follow trends and a small amount of technical analysis to try and call over bought or under sold stocks, within a portfolio of about 25 stocks I monitor. For example one of my favourite trading stocks at present is SHELL. I tend to sell it in the 412 - 418 region, especially if there are lots of 'oil fear stories' doing the rounds and buy it in the 390-395 region. I have made a fair bit of money doing this over the last 2 months or so.

The other sector I like trading is the Banking sector, which has taken an aweful whack in the last year or so. Here I love trading RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland), although this is not one for the faint hearted !! Today around the 1550 mark I became a seller, whilst anything around 1380-1400 is a buy for me.
You must must however keep a very watchful eye and be ready to close out quickly, if it starts to move significantly against you.

I also track most of the other bank shares, but in particular trading Lloyds (whilst it remains so out of favour) and Barclays. I think this sector has a little further to fall, but don't be too over short here, as any Bull rally will see the stocks in this generally oversold sector bounce a long way back in a very very short space of time.

I don't track Brit Aerospace so I would be interested in why you are shorting this.

I'll leave it at that for now as there are other stocks I do the same as above with, but this would make this note too long. I'll share them with you if we continue communicating on this thread.

Have fun and be prosperous my friend !!

Andy

[yas0] 03/1/2003 14:54

ajbche,

i agree, these markets are very difficult to call.....one day economic data indicates doom and gloom and the next set of numbers are rather upbeat. I mean we had very bad retail numbers a few weeks ago, and this was confirmed by cbi report yeateray, but there is talk of buoyant last minute trading and post xmas shopping as indicated by asda s trading statement today. Who knows.

But back to bunzl. I am losing at the moment i admit, and may have called it wrong but ill stick by my forecast for now.

I have gone short brit aerospace again today......

What other stocks or sectors are you playing about with?? I understand if you do not share such info,

best regards

yas

[ajbche] 02/1/2003 20:32

Yas,

I understand your viewpoint, but in the current market climate technical trends, seem to be fairly irrelevant as we gyro between good and bad news eminating from across the pond. I do spreadbet trading and have been fairly successful in my trades, but you just cannot afford to be wrong in this market as the wild swings can destroy you.

Today we get a wildly destorted manufacturing number and the market goes wild, yet only a few days ago the consumer confidence number was aweful and the market seemed to discount it. This may be the start of either a false bullish trend or the start of a mini rally. Who knows...but to make money go with the short term trend and when you have made a percentage gain get out !

Good luck my friend

Andy

[yas0] 02/1/2003 15:42

Andy,

Thanks for that........at the moment it is going your way. I note since my last post the company have continued on their acquisition trail. My reasons for trading this stock are more technical than fundamental, though i cannot see how weakness in the dollar (which i think is inevitable and will take its toll), coupled with bunzl's significant exposure in the us can be avoided by the share price.

As always time will tell......

Cheers

Yas

[ajbche] 20/12/2002 18:29

Yas,

Be very careful with this stock, I was long up to a few days ago and now am neutral, not because I think it will drop significantly, but because it has fallen out of favour and in this market that loses you money. Having said that, this is a growth company with a high return on capital and which is highly cash generative. It has the ability as shown today to acquire strategic businesses.

I state again I am not long, but when the market comes to it senses I will be, so trade carefully my friend as, todays weakness in this market is tomorrow's strength.

I wish you luck on your downward journey to £2.80. Personally I see only small downside in the short term, as any movements over the next few days will be funds window dressing. I think the critical price will be £3.50. If it breaks that (and I don't think it will), you may see your £2.80.

Anyhow good luck once again, as we may be going in opposite directions on this one.

Andy

[yas0] 20/12/2002 15:36

it has to be added that continued weakness in the dollar would have a very detrimental effect on the bottom line of bunzl, as would weakness in the us economy since bunzl has significant exposure to the us.

[yas0] 20/12/2002 14:45

A broker upgrade is usually the time to sell.....the chart has broken support at 410 ..and the minor support around 375-80 also seems to have given way. Next stop 280p....eventually we will get there.

For the record, I remain short.

Views (short or long) appreciated (no rampers either way, just informed comment)

regards

yas

[miata] 19/12/2002 14:45

Salomon Smth Brny Upgrade Bunzl to Outperform.

[l2e] 18/12/2002 01:22

not doing to well in this index is it....where next?

[l2e] 18/12/2002 01:20

not doing to well in this index is it....where next?

[ajbche] 17/12/2002 19:05

Thanks guys for the info.....just my luck to be long on them today although I have successfully traded them between the 405 - 430 range for the last month or so......so I guess I shouldn't complain....I can see these dropping another 10% now, before recovering....will need to close out long tomorrow...thanks again

[jussyman] 17/12/2002 18:56

here it is

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in Bunzl PLC were weaker in reaction to a downgrade of
recommendation from Credit Suisse First Boston, with the broker citing valuation
grounds for its move, dealers said.
Bunzl was downgraded to 'underperform' from 'neutral' by CSFB.
It told clients it was concerned over the paper company's premium valuation
and its low growth relative to the Support Services sector.
This followed Bunzl's in-line trading statement yesterday which highlighted
robust in-line performance for the full year.
However, CSFB made small reductions to forecasts to reflect ongoing price
deflation and negative currency impact.
Its conversations with management yesterday suggested Bunzl was seeing
continued resilient volume growth in outsourcing services and filters and fibres
operations, while the plastics operations are still seeing volume downturn.
Negotiations over potential acquisitions have been more drawn out this year
and hence acquisition-driven growth has been relatively low, CSFB believes.
Ongoing price deflation and negative currency impact led the broker to
reduce current year pretax expectations by 1.5 pct to 205.5 mln stg, or an EPS
of 30 pence, with next year's forecasts lowered by 3.9 pct to 211.5 mln or 30.5
pence.
Expectations of lower medium term growth also led CSFB to reduce its price
target to 497 pence to 471.
At 1.14 pm, shares in Bunzl were down 17-1/2 pence to 413-1/2.
bge

[taximania] 17/12/2002 18:53

CSFB cuts from nuetral to underperform.

[ajbche] 17/12/2002 18:27

Thanks for the info, but which broker.....I didn't see any announcements....what price target did they have ?

[taximania] 17/12/2002 18:07

Broker Downgrade

[ajbche] 17/12/2002 17:57

Anyone see any reason for these showing such a large percentage loss on the day.....reaction to the trading statement ???

[zulu001] 15/11/2002 08:12

Bunzl jumped up 2.5% yesterday following unexpectedly good US retail sales figures. Further US numbers this afternoon should have a significant effect.