Bovis Homes Share Discussion Threads

[the_equaliser] 09/11/2016 08:38

All house builders will be same
Nothing to support slow down

Trump winning as hurt the rise in house builders
:(

[abarclay] 09/11/2016 06:25

Under 600p open?

[source] 04/11/2016 18:29

Seems a good addition of a Non-Executive by Bovis today. Shame the market doesn't believe so though given today's big falls. Regards,Source. +++++"...Nigel Keen is Property and Development Director of the John Lewis Partnership, the largest omni-channel retailer in the UK, with turnover of around GBP11 billion and circa GBP4 billion of freehold and leasehold property interests. Nigel has a strong construction and property background, with over twenty five years' experience in a consumer facing industry, and is responsible for the property strategy and portfolio across both John Lewis and Waitrose, including stores, supermarkets, distribution centres and manufacturing sites...."

[the_equaliser] 03/11/2016 09:46

Service sector pmi
Yet again shows growth to forcast
09:30 GBP Services PMI (Oct) 54.5 52.4 52.6

[source] 02/11/2016 18:34

Another strong data point about housebuilders specifically in today's higher than expected PMI. Regards,Source. "...Housebuilding drove the bulk of construction activity, with the commercial and civil engineering sectors broadly stagnant, the PMI showed...."

[the_equaliser] 01/11/2016 13:50

No probs Source

I maybe wrong but the way i look at it is
Buys > sells - price = negative - A Inst/major seller
Sells > Buys - Price = positive - An Insti/major buyer

Look at EOD for a the large trade

Good luck
Shame in missed on this one
10/11 trade update

10/14/15/16 November - 5 Builders with updates

If all bodes well, solid weeks for a rise

[source] 01/11/2016 10:18

Thanks equaliser. Hope so! Been garnering a LOT of pessimism over the last few months (unwarranted by the news flow in my view). Regards,Source.

[the_equaliser] 01/11/2016 09:50

Not a holder here but in PSN / Bdev
I am guessing an insti buying with large hike in Sp
From tomorrow news on all house builders next 15 days
If anything based on BWY news month ago
All should be good
Starts with PSN tomorrow

[roddiemac2] 27/10/2016 10:55

leading,

Your last paragraph sums the situation up well. life is a matter of alternatives, and as you correctly point out, a good dividend is worth having . I keep a large sum of money in cash these days , and I am not bothered by the fact it earns no interest; relatively speaking it is safe.I sold BVS earlier this year.I could be tempted back in at some point.

[leading] 27/10/2016 08:48

This certainly is an unloved share in an unloved sector.

I see a housing market that is structurally undersupplied. The builders by their own admission all seem to be saying that the government has become much more supportive on the planning front recently. There is a risk that the government might withdraw "Help to Buy" which is propping the market up, but they have confirmed this will continue until 2021. On top of that, the new Prime Minister wants to get the aspirational classes on side and I suspect she sees a property owning democracy as a good thing, much as a predecessor of hers, so I expect government support for the sector to continue.

The company itself is based primarily in the South East which is the most affluent region, but is also represented in the midlands and North West, so exposed to HS2 (shovels in the ground next year apparently), Midlands Engine, Northern Powerhouse etc. The company seems very conservatively run, with virtually no debt. At the same time, it has put in place the administrative structure to take annual volumes from 3635 in 2014 to an eventual target of 5,000-6,000pa. The current year should deliver 4,300 and capacity growth is about 400pa.

The share yields about 6% and is on a prospective PE of about 7. In addition, housebuilders are resilient. If there's a crash they just stop building, sell from stock and wait for the market to stabilise and start all over again.

The share price looks like a falling knife, but as a long term investor, its cheap enough for me and I have bought at 750p. Where else should I put my money? In a bank deposit paying 0.8%pa or should I buy a fancy internet marketing stock on a PE of 25 and wait for the inevitable profit warning carnage?

[source] 27/10/2016 08:30

That's certainly one view roddiemac , however it seems too pessimistic for housebuilders given long term structural deficits in house building over the years and relatively high affordability along with a better than expected economy (see excerpt below). While prices are indeed high I am not so sure that the cycle is anywhere near done yet. Hence why it may be worth considering the large growth still ahead of Bovis compared to its quite low shareprice. However admit that the overly pessimistic view is certainly in control currently. Regards,Source. "Britain escaped a severe economic slowdown in the three months after the Brexit referendum shock, official figures are expected to show on Thursday, further diminishing the chance of a fresh interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week...."

[roddiemac2] 26/10/2016 19:57

I reckon that the housing market is slowing down now : not before time. the argument that low mortgage rates make it " affordable " to buy overpriced houses is a stupid one . sadly , in a property obsessed society like the UK , boom and bust is considered almost normal. At current prices , house buyers will have nothing left to pay the ever increasing running costs. inflation will inevitably erode any spare capacity they have.

[deadly] 25/10/2016 20:50

So when will that be: in a month, a year, ten years????

[roddiemac2] 25/10/2016 20:09

House prices do very well until just about nobody can afford them , then they crash.

[source] 25/10/2016 14:11

House prices do very well in inflationary environments I believe. Bovis is unloved, that much is clear to me unfortunately. However I think it's performance will change people's minds as we progress into the new year and if the management doesn't trip itself over again. Sounds from all builders has been very positive after Brexit, but Bovis hasn't fully benefited from all that yet. Regards,Source.

[roddiemac2] 25/10/2016 12:03

House prices are simply way too dear ----Demand must at some point falter----inflation cometh.

[source] 16/10/2016 12:51

Nice to see brokers starting to correct their eps forecasts upwards for both 2016 and also 2017. As I posted before, it seemed odd to me that that brokers dropped their forecasts drastically after Brexit for no real good reason. Still lots more upgrades need to be done if it normalises back to its normal pre-Brexit eps forecasts alone let alone the improved prospects Bovis has since modestly repo, so should hopefully much more normalisation is to come on this. The current low share-price has obviously a long way up to go if/when that correction process continues. Regards,Source.

[jdb2005] 10/10/2016 13:32

Think there are two viewpoints with Builders:

High-end properties will come down & with fall in value of £ make them more attractive for foreign buyers. Conversely the uncertainty about Brexit & possible loss of some jobs in the financial sector could put any movement upmarket on hold for high-earners.

Yet more talk at Tory Conference about need to encourage building of new homes - focus seems to be on 250k more per annum.

[source] 04/10/2016 23:44

Thanks Aishah.

[aishah] 04/10/2016 22:04

And then in latest issue:

Bovis - Shares make strong recovery

918p Epic code: BVS
(Momentum Investor) Our Buy tip two issues ago at 660p looks well-timed with the shares rallying with the house building sector, helped by strong results elsewhere (notably Persimmon).
First half results for period ending 30 June were bang in line with revenues, pretax profit and eps up 18%, 15% and 14% to £413m, £61.7m and 36.5p, respectively. Net debt fell from £59m to £8m. Sales price inflation and cost inflation were broadly aligned so gross margin was unchanged at 24.3%. However, operating margin rose from 14.7% to 15.5% due to better overhead utilisation.
Bovis achieved 5% growth in legal completions to 1,601 homes (H1 ’15: 1,525) while the average sales price increased 14% to £254,000.
In the first half it invested 1,267 consented plots across 11 new sites and now has a consented land bank of 19,477 plots across 138 sites.
Crucially, current trading has not been weakened by Brexit with over 90% of planned home sales for 2016 achieved (as at 12 August), while reservation rates are improving after a short term slow down in July. Its southern focus, excluding London, also leaves it well positioned. Eps forecasts are unchanged for this year at 108.8p but clipped a little from 111.9p to 105.3p. The dividend is expected to rise to 46p. Keep holding.

[aishah] 04/10/2016 22:03

The Momentum Investor wrote back in August: UK Housebuilders- Once-in-a-decade ultra low PEs:

Bovis Homes (BVS; 660p)
Bovis Homes famously entered the credit crunch with one of the most conservative balance sheets after overstretching in the mid 1970s banking crisis and this time round it’s also solid with net cash currently £30m.


Today Bovis is the UK’s sixth largest house builder and specialises in green field locations in the south, typically edge of towns and within large villages. 56% of dwellings are 3-4 bedroom family homes with 14% 5-6 beds, 23% social housing and just 7% apartments. Customers are a mix of first-time buyers and families moving up the housing ladder, while Help-to-Buy was used by 35% of customers.


It has a healthy land bank of almost 20,000 plots (c. 5 years supply) and plans to expand output from 3,935 homes in FY’15 to 6,000 in the medium term, although this may now be revised down.


Deutsche Bank forecasts eps of 114.1p this year, dropping the forward PE to just 5.8, while the price to book value is only 0.8 times. The dividend yield of 6.8% (45p) also provides support. Buy.

[source] 04/10/2016 21:10

So we can see Standard Life's sells are likely to have been holding Bovis down a tad then?Read elsewhere Standard Life (like other pension funds) were getting a lot of money pulled out of them so maybe this is related to that?They still have a large holding for them though so hopefully with that sale done this can start to get focus back on the positives increasingly emerging around housebuilders. Hopefully! :)...also still seems a rather large gap to fill around 960p too!Regards,Source.