Bovis Homes Share Discussion Threads

[phillis] 18/5/2016 13:03

why
it went xd in March

[mfhmfh] 18/5/2016 12:10

might drop tomorrow when dividend paid

[wad collector] 18/5/2016 11:34

Traded some out at 940 ; 10% in a month seemed worth it , suspect will drop again in the short term.

[thomasthetank1] 11/5/2016 13:59

Read Beaufort Securities's note on BOVIS HOMES GROUP PLC (BVS), out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/GB0001859296

"The trading update in line with expectations with management saying that group is seeing good demand. The Company has repeated guidance that the year will be H2 weighted. Good to hear that build cost inflation is moderating compared to high levels seen in 2015. Shares are cheap compared to the peer group, however any re-rating may wait until successful..."

[wad collector] 11/5/2016 13:22

Yesterday's statement looks pretty positive to me but the market is unimpressed ; I especially like the 15% dividend rise.

David Ritchie, Chief Executive, commented:

"We have been trading well with positive market conditions supporting activity levels and we are on track to deliver our planned growth for 2016. We continue to drive improvements in our operations across the enlarged business with strong investment in our people and focus on delivering value across the Group."

Current trading

Housing market conditions remain positive with strong demand from home buyers who are benefitting from good access to mortgage finance. Our sales prices continue to show levels of sustainable growth driven by our improving mix of homes. Weekly sales rates have improved in recent weeks and in the year to date we have achieved 0.65 net private reservations per site, which is now in line with last year. We have launched 17 new sites for sale with many sites acquired in 2015 now launched and selling well. A number of sites have sold out earlier than expected and, as a result our total number of sales outlets has remained broadly constant over the year to date. The forthcoming EU referendum has had no discernible impact on our business with strong demand across all our operating areas.

As highlighted in February, the profile of legal completions in 2016 will be weighted to the second half year in a similar manner to 2015, whilst the anticipated increased overhead costs being incurred to manage the enlarged Group will be evenly spread over the year. We are continuing to make operating improvements across the business which are providing opportunities for higher profit margins in the future. We continue to see the level of cost inflation moderating compared to our experience in 2015.

Land

At this point in the cycle, adopting our normal disciplined approach to land investment, we continue to invest in high quality consented land. We have a strong pipeline with terms either agreed or progressing through strategic conversion to deliver the targeted level of new site acquisitions during 2016.

Dividend

Subject to shareholder approval at today's AGM, a final dividend of 26.3 pence per share (2014 final: 23 pence per share) will be paid on 20 May 2016, giving a total dividend for 2015 of 40 pence per share (2014 total: 35 pence per share).

[jdb2005] 25/4/2016 14:42

BVS up 2% today.

News out today that EU Investment Bank has decided to lend the UK £1 billion to be spent on new social housing projects.

[jdb2005] 21/4/2016 16:16

Looks like BVS & Builders are coming off their lows today

[wad collector] 20/4/2016 09:42

Housebuilding in Britain picked up to a record high in February but the rest of the construction sector struggled amid signs that uncertainty over the EU referendum and public spending cuts are denting activity, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics said private housebuilding rose 3.9% from January, the fastest growth for 10 months and taking it to the highest level since records began in 2010.

(last weeks news but not been posted)

[jdb2005] 19/4/2016 22:24

Spring & Summer are when those who can afford it will seek to trade upwards which should help BVS to recover from the lows we have seen in last 2/3 weeks.

Next update will show how well sales of new homes have progressed.

Given that new build now is focused on customers first putting down deposits on plots they have reserved the company results should show it is maintaining profitability.

[source] 14/4/2016 20:50

Seems fears of slowing sales and rising costs have emerged - Persimmon results also apparently showing the cooling and so are starting to hit the sector. Could be house builders may suffer a bit given these signs. RegardsSource.

[eastbourne1982] 14/4/2016 12:09

Joined you wad, I'm in at £8.54 with a short term target (4 - 6 weeks) of £9.50.

[wad collector] 14/4/2016 09:32

Picked up that 855 limit . What a fickle market this is ; what ultimately has changed in the long term fortunes of Bovis that has reduced the share price by 25% in the last year? Happy to trade on the volatility or hold long.

[closetinvestor] 12/4/2016 15:01

If you value house builders using P/NTAV (which historically was the preferred way of analysts valuing house builders, rather than using PE ratios), you get the following

BVS : 1.21
INL : 1.50
RDW : 1.54
TEF : 1.86
BDEV: 1.87
CRST: 2.15
TW. : 2.16
BKG : 2.38
PSN : 2.75

When you add in the prospective yield of over 5%, BVS looks incredibly cheap!

[wad collector] 12/4/2016 12:59

855 even better ; will have some more if gets there again ; just looked at 2017 predictions of 125p EPS. If correct , they are a bargain.

[wad collector] 11/4/2016 15:39

866 seems too cheap to me again ; eps 11% of share price - bought my trading stock back in .

[roddiemac2] 30/3/2016 09:21

Jdb,

Yes,rising prices are a poisoned chalice for the next generation; a sad indictment of this generation, if you believe that a society should be judged by what it leaves for the next generation.

Having said that, builders may attract my investment again, but only at lower prices. Builders are still in a sweet spot, but the big money has already been made. There are risks.

[jdb2005] 29/3/2016 19:05

Seems to me that home ownership is still a UK families main objective.
Rising House prices in London & rest of South East have made it merely a dream for majority of the younger generation unless they have well paid jobs.
Foreign buyers notably Chinese & Russians have rushed to London because they see that their investment there will give them better returns than their own country's.
So with demand still outstripping supply Builders cannot go far wrong.
Bank of England today has requested that Banks & Mortgage Lenders do rigorous tests on mortgage applicants ability to pay if mortgage rates were to rise to 5.5%. Particular focus now is also on curbing the Buy to Let market.
Don't think that is going to stop some because they will just form limited companies to reduce tax liabilities.

Hence I will continue to invest in Builders buying shares when they slip back from current levels.

[roddiemac2] 29/3/2016 12:24

Certainly shake hands. Your posts are interesting.

I think the nature of the obsession is more about seeing house ownership as an investment that cannot fail, which historically , over the long term, is true, but cannot go on at the current rate.

I did not imply that any change to this situation was imminent, but I think it will be good for everyone if ,in time ,houses become more affordable. Will it happen , and over what period of time-?------I think it needs to happen.

Take care

[dr_smith] 29/3/2016 11:25

roddiemac2:
IMV the situation is little change for 30+years and little evidence it is about to change.
As a PI I invest on that basis - supply and demand.
Having a safe home goes back thousands of years, so struggling to see your view that it is an 'obseession' with imminent change. I doubt anything I say will change your views, so would like to shake hands and leave it there. :-)

[roddiemac2] 29/3/2016 10:40

DR SMITH ,

My anecdote about bread in Tesco was slightly tongue in cheek.

Despite not being the driver of rates , now that rates are low, govt. is all too aware that raising them is very likely to dent house prices , reducing the asset backing of some of the big mortgage providers ; in that sense , coupled with " help" to buy schemes the " market " is a rigged deck.

Having most of the population`s " wealth " tied up in property , at current prices, is not a healthy situation. In a property obsessed society like the UK, it may only be a matter of time before the belief that you can`t go wrong with bricks and mortar is severely tested.

[dr_smith] 27/3/2016 14:43

Roddiemac:
Back in the 1970's I helped my Dad deliver Sunblest bread to tesco Kwik save, Fine fare etc. Well 2 of those 3 are now gone.
Buyers would always do what we called 'the squeeze test' to test for freshness.
This meant 'village' baked fresh crusty bread was left aside for factory line steam injected bread, so IMO bread choice isn't a good yard stick (or baguette) of the economy.

I can't remember why interest rates first dropped to the lows.
In a world economy where low interest from USA to Japan, we are not the drivers of rates, so not rigging, but Gov't target for house ownership could well be a welcomed benefit. In Europe there is less ownership, more rented, yet interest rates went down there too.

Having said that, 'Help to Buy' etc is crazy to me as it pushes demand for same limited supply, would be better to use that funding to address inefficiently used land, disused commercial sites, to faciliate more residential dwellings without losing green belt.

[roddiemac2] 27/3/2016 13:48

DR SMITH,

your point (2) is valid. One could argue that low interest rates were introduced , in part, to prop up house prices. IMO that is a very unhealthy situation; it is a rigged deck designed to protect the big lenders. Government is afraid of a crash.

You are also right to point out that building volume is persistently below demand, but, even so, there must be a limit to what people can afford to pay/ borrow, if wages don`t keep pace with prices. Long term , rising house prices reduce disposable income. My local Tesco store has stopped stocking some of their more expensive speciality bread because it simply does not sell enough now. I am told the trend is towards cheap white pap. There is ample evidence that many house " owners " can`t afford to eat well.

[dr_smith] 26/3/2016 14:49

roddiemac2.
I asked myself the same question when I bought a flat in on 1985.

Also, annual building volume is persistantly below demand (450,000 p.a. I believe) so no time soon IMO.

Also consider:
1) Many people are inheriting from the post war generation so earnings is not the only factor to drive prices, be it London or elsewhere.

2) Higher house price are less in real terms when you compare back to times of high interest rates, for each pound borrowed, now a higher proportion of monthly repayment is going to reducing the principal debt rather than interest acrrued.

Interesting chart here:
hxxp://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5568/housing/uk-house-price-affordability/

All IMO DYOR :-)

[roddiemac2] 26/3/2016 14:00

Jdb,

Help to buy at these prices is not help at all . the government has been " helping "people to get in debt at the wrong price. Their priority is to prevent a house price collapse thereby protecting the lenders.

How much longer do you think house price inflation can run ahead of wage inflation? ---