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Bacanora Min Share Discussion Threads
Showing 3601 to 3625 of 3625 messages
|Wonder what deal BCN will sort?
Private Placement: Ganfeng has agreed to purchase, by way of a private placement, 75,000,000 common shares at a price of C$0.85 per common share for gross proceeds of C$64 million (US$49 million). Following the close of the Private Placement, Ganfeng will own approximately 19.9% of the Company's issued and outstanding shares;
Project Debt Facility: Ganfeng and the Company have agreed to terms by which Ganfeng will provide to Lithium Americas a US$125 million Project Debt Facility to be used for the funding of Lithium Americas' share of Cauchari-Olaroz construction costs. The Project Debt Facility has a term of six years, with an interest rate of 8.0% for the first three years that increases to 8.5% in year four, 9.0% in year five and 9.5% in year six;
Offtake Entitlement: Ganfeng and the Company have agreed to terms for an Offtake Entitlement in favour of Ganfeng for the purchase of up to 70% of Lithium Americas' share of Cauchari-Olaroz Stage 1 lithium carbonate production at market prices;|
|I think after a +20% rerating, the only people to whom EMH is a good tip right now are those lucky enough to be in possession of a DeLorean with functioning flux capacitor.|
|From my understanding Bacanora is a much simpler mining operation than EMH as the Lithium we have is at the surface like picking candy.
With Tesla Giga factory now open they will be reducing the supply of Lithium from the market. In the grand scheme of things Litium looks like it will be in short supply. As this year runs on we should see a huge run for Bacanora|
|I noticed the comment on BCN thread & bought some of them (EMH) before the pop yesterday. I also doubled up on BCN.
Good times ahead.
|There are a couple of interesting articles on EMH (see their board) which imply that they are very seriously undervalued compared to their peers. BCN also not overvalued - but not so cheap as EMH. Some of the American producers, Nebraska Lithium in particular, very seriously overvalued. It's interesting reading. It won't make you pull money out of BCN, but it might interest you in putting money into EMH.|
|Off topic perhaps but notable that EMH (as identified above)has leapt near 20% this morning.Like some of that for BCN.|
|And back down we go. Daily Mail buyers dried up?|
|Look how much moneys people made!!! Bringin insane amounts of bacon!!! Now just see if it will continue higher, much more higher, about the time!!!|
|Yes it's a good article in the FT.Takes a long term view and wonders whether lithium won't ultimately prove vulnerable to oversupply as there's a rush to satisfy strongly rising demand.Thereagain,it predicates a substantial global supply deficit in the year 2025 of over 100,000 tonnes,so I don't think the cycle is going into a downturn anytime soon.The article is loath to suggest that lithium could prove to be a bubble like rare earths that fell sharply in price back in 2012.The demand is uncompromising for lithium.The article also draws attention to China's appetite for lithium,now even drilling for the resource (expensively)in Australia.|
|FT article is interesting. Points to meteoric demand forecasts - 175k tonnes to 775k tonnes by 2025 but then highlights "no shortage of lithium in the earth's crust" as well as it being "very difficult to mine and process".
So you might think that BCN is relatively advanced in its development and therefore might take full advantage of the rising demand before supply catches up.|
It has had a hell of run.|
|Yes that's all very intriguing but doesn't say who this low cost miner actually is!|
|Lest anyone be confused by the above comment from LSE,it's a comment commending the relative merits of EMH ,European Metals Holdings,attempting to lay out a case that EMH is better value than BCN.Shame the poster,who took someone else's comment from LSE,failed to recognise that there's no mention of the company in the post itself.|
|What share you referring to?|
|Great post from Xulu on LSE;
BCN having a nice revival. They are double our MCap now - and i'd be surprised if we don't come in with an NPV double their's when we publish our PFS in March.
If you take their $750M as a base case to work from in comparison:
We need $153M less Capex. Using the same 8% discount used by BCN, over 20 year initial LoM that is worth $600M extra on the NPV.
We are producing Lithium at >$1000/T cheaper. Assuming 35kT/y production as BCN, thats >$35M saving every year over 20 years = $700M without taking into account compound interest.
BCN went with $6000/t selling price... Well that's conservative even a year ago at the time. Let's assume $8000/t for a contract now as a conservative long-term figure given contracts are this year $11000. At 35kT/y that's an extra $70M/y. Over 20 years its $1.4 Billion before compound interest.
Now consider we will have cheaper transport to our customers. Consider the much higher payback/IRR. Consider no competition in Europe. Consider the 15% increased Lithium recoveries from our recent metalwork studies. Consider the shallow high-grade Lithium we've discovered to start our mine off on. Consider that Tin prices have fully recovered allowing further cost offsets.
These are obviously rough figures, but the point is, put all this together and the NPV that comes out of our PFS is going to be huge. It will dwarf BCN's. Both BCN and EMH's PFS will focus only on a small portion of their resource.
It will be +$2Billion because our margins are so high - Producing carbonate for $1000 and selling it for $8000. That means that for example if someone was to pay $2Billion
for us now - it'd be the same as them investing $2Billion in a managed fund that brings them a guaranteed constant 8% return for 20 years. Something that any large investor would be ecstatic about. The reason they use such a high figure is to provide security for the buyer.
Our current Mcap is $55M. This is the share tip of 2017, not BCN.
(for the record, BCN's revised FS due in the summer will also take into account higher lithium prices and thus a much larger NPV)|
|Article in today's ft about lithium bubble..|
|Talk of "news on the way", is bit of an old chestnut! Surely the rise is more to do with being tipped in the Mail, as a share for 2017, and the corporate activity elsewhere in the sector.|
|I think the Tesla GIGA factory commencing production has craeted renewed interest in lithium and lithium miners. I hold no position here but do hold EMH well placed to supply the Europeam market.|
|I guess with lithium prices significantly higher, and underlined by the Shandong - Birimian deal, as well as the mexican peso falling further, the economics seem to be moving in the right direction.|
|The daily volume since the New Year has been up around the half million mark,well above the Dec average.Slipped on low volume pre year end,rising on high volume since.This is an encouraging sign.|
|Thanks for all the informative replies. I am relatively new to AIM so perhaps a little naive! Well, a correction from the pre-xmas (silly) drop accounted for a return to 80p, stoked by the press tips. But today has far exceeded that so it is beginning to look like something else.
Perhaps someone with a higher-level account can get some clues from the types of trades compared with their volumes and get some idea of what's going on. I note that most of the trades are still very small, which suggests yet more PI's piling in, perhaps having seen tips in the press and noting the price is still below its 12 month highs and well below the few price targets out there (circa 120p), even now.
On a personal level, cursing myself for not trusting my original investment case for BCN and topping up last week at 65p.|
|Well,you're right of course and there's the old City comment that observes that "someone always knows and someone always tells".The problem lies in the fact that prop books and the like often stoke speculation that news is imminent pretending that they know something.As far as insider trading is concerned,it is not illegal to be in possession of insider information,it is only illegal if you use that info to make take unfair advantage and make a profit.I don't suppose that the price rise here is anymore than recovery from the fall seen pre Xmas plus a few paper and broker tips but it's nicer to think that a deal is imminent and news of this has leaked out.Most inside information is a bit like a First World War trench,A tells B who tells C etc with an appendage that this comes from a reliable source.Ultimately,it can all become a bit muddled.|
|Hi Simonsaid1 - yes, this does happen all the time, with the bad companies on AIM. The good companies are much more responsible with information. It's actually a tell-tale sign of trouble ahead.
I'll think more of the BoD of BCN if there ISN'T an RNS today!|
|Happens all the time Simon......welcome to AIM.|