Axis-shield Share Discussion Threads

[jpjp100] 02/9/2011 21:08

and, of course, why stop at diabetes & lipids

if the platform can manage multiple tests, ASD is surely working on others already

[edgar3] 02/9/2011 12:32

alftupper,

I don't think there is anything particularly special about ASD's lipid test. Conspicuous by its absence have been any direct comparison with competing products on test speed, accuracy etc (contrast this with the hullabaloo about their diabetes test).

The point is that with its introduction ASD will have a machine that undertakes both diabetes testing (market circa 300 mill test pa I think) and lipid testing (500 mill pa). Thus two of the most important PoC tests will be able to be done using one bit of kit.

If you were in the market, would you buy two separate machines, or one?

Worth remembering also that ASD 'place' Afinion in the US using the razor blade model. Thus, they make their money from test sales only. Once they get a dominant market position, presumably they will start selling the machine.

All things being equal it might be a reasonable expectation that Afinion will 'wipe out' all other competing PoC products capable of performing the two biggest tests POC tests. In an ever expanding market, this makes the capacity to undertake the lipid test gold dust, and has the potential to turn ASD into a very big player.

Edgar3

[hotfinance14] 02/9/2011 12:00

Alf..The Lipid assay will be a huge threat to Alere's lipid product.

It wont be their saviour...we have Afinion.

[alftupper] 02/9/2011 11:45

Someone tell me what is so special about ASD's lipid test that it is going to be their saviour ? Their Nycocard business is going to come under huge pressure as better and more competitive tests come into the market. There is a certain downside and an uncertain upside - what I cannot understand is why Alere want to buy it in the first place.

[edgar3] 02/9/2011 08:51

Dear All,

ASD's defence seems to be watertight. Surely if some of the big shareholders were going to accept, they would have done so by now...

So assuming the bid fails there are, presumably, three options:

1.Alere disappear completely;
2.They do nothing for 6 months, wait for the share price to drop, and then increase their bid hoping that the share price fall, and an increased bid, persuades more shareholders to accept;
3.They make an increased bid in the short term - leading to an increased share price in this period.

My inclination is option 3. Alere seem fairly intent on purchasing ASD - they have secured loan facilities for £300m - and the deal appears to make good commercial sense for them on a number of levels.

Their opening bid made great play of the 'certainty' the offer would give shareholders. I took this to mean they were playing on the 'uncertainty' about whether the lipid panel test would be rolled out on schedule (prior to 2012), and whether application (and approval) would be made (granted) by the FDA for the test. In the development of Afinion, ASD repeatedly missed deadlines, so this is a cause for concern. But we are now only 4 months before the end of 2011, and management keep repeating that the test is 'on track'. Taking them at face value, and they would now lose all credibility if the test isn't introduced on time, makes me believe an increased offer is likely in the short term. Once the test is introduced, Alere will lose the 'uncertainty' card, and I believe the value of the company will increase.

Agree / disagree?
Good luck!
Edgar3

[doc robinson] 02/9/2011 07:51

arefirsteagle buying for alere???

[doc robinson] 02/9/2011 07:51

arefirsteagle buying for alere???

[doc robinson] 02/9/2011 07:51

arefirsteagle buying for alere???

[jpjp100] 02/9/2011 07:32

So Alere has its hands on 9.09% and acceptances on 1.03% as of today's announcement

Extends acceptance date to 15 Sep

My message to them: Dream on my friends, dream on

[hotfinance14] 01/9/2011 17:43

Every little bit of news helps.

[scobiebreasley] 01/9/2011 17:10

09/01/2011 | 04:10 am

Axis-Shield enlisted Prevas' help to develop advanced analysis cartridge

Prevas has successfully concluded a development project for Axis-Shield PoC in Oslo. The assignment involved producing a new test cartridge for Afinion, a testing and analysis instrument. The new test cartridge will measure cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and triglyceride values. It is expected to reach the market in 2012.

The new test cartridge has 8 divisions, and has space for more chemicals compared to the old test cartridge with 5 divisions, which enables more complicated analyses to be performed. One blood sample can be used to produce up to four different lipid values. Measuring lipids is important in order to diagnose various lifestyle illnesses.

"We are very pleased with Prevas' contribution in producing the new test cartridge with 8 divisions for our lipid panel. Different partial solutions that were produced over the course of the project can also be used to improve our test cartridge with five divisions," says Arve Strömsheim, who is the project manager at Axis-Shield PoC in Oslo.

"We have been working with Axis-Shield PoC since 2002. During this time, we have built up a high level of trust and cooperation with the customer. In this project, we supplemented the customer's expertise within chemistry and software development with our experience within high-volume production of plastic components," says Jonas Mann, Business Area Manager Product Development at Prevas.

Prevas has a leading position in Europe in the development of advanced devices for medical device products, biotechnology and in vitro diagnosis. Over the years, Prevas has developed several prize-winning products for customers in the Nordic Region, Europe and the U.S.

Brief information about Afinion Afinion AS100 is an advanced multi-test instrument for point-of-care analysis of blood and urine. The instrument was developed by Axis-Shield PoC in cooperation with Prevas. The device combines quick test results with a high degree of reliability, and is very easy to use. The instrument was awarded gold in the Medical Design Excellence Awards, which is a prestigious design prize for medical device instruments.

[jpjp100] 01/9/2011 07:51

I am more interested in the volumes that first eagle is buying on a daily basis

Always CFDs

Is the volume limited by what they can get their hands on or is theirs a drip drip strategy to add about that amount each day.

[slaterlpj] 01/9/2011 07:24

First Eagle appear to be very confident with their daily increased poition in asd. What do they know that's not being published? Or are they just gambling?

[slaterlpj] 31/8/2011 16:52

Is it usual for the trades to be dominated by Sells, and for the share price to rise in the face of it? That appears to be happening today.

[jpjp100] 31/8/2011 09:03

first eagle's daily nibble on CFDs long at 4.7667 this time....

[jpjp100] 30/8/2011 07:44

First Eagle nibbling again yesterday on more CFDs

I think another bidder needs to emerge if we are to get anything like true value this time. I think the Alere bid at this level is dead.

If no other bidder pops up, maybe Alere would be best advised to withdraw, drive down the share price, gather in some more ASD shares cheaper and come back with a bid later.

[scobiebreasley] 28/8/2011 11:23

Axis-Shield suitor 'can pay more'


Published Date: 28 August 2011
By Peter Ranscombe

AMERICAN analysts have weighed into life science giant Alere's takeover battle for Dundee-based rival Axis-Shield, saying that the US suitor will have to dig deeper into its £340 million warchest in order to buy its target.
New York-listed Alere, which was previously known as Inverness Medical, went hostile with its £230m cash offer earlier this month, having had an informal approach at the same price rejected by Axis-Shield's board in June.

Analysts in the UK have said that a more-acceptable price for the Scottish firm could be as high as £295m.

Now Alere-followers in the United States have said that such a figure would be well within the Massachusetts-based company's reach, with £340m in cash sitting on its balance sheet and further funds from cash flow expected to roll in during the second half of its financial year.

Nicholas Jansen, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates, said Alere's cash reserves are "more than enough to support a higher transaction price", although he stopped short of naming a figure.

Jansen added: "Ultimately, considering the strategic implications from the transaction - it eliminates a solid competitor - and the synergies that could be developed, we believe Alere will likely raise its bid in order to acquire Axis-Shield. "

Last week's interim results from Axis-Shield revealed the company was still on course to launch its lipid test - for heart and lung disease - in Europe before the end of the year and to apply for regulatory clearance for the US in the first part of next year.

That product will put the Scots firm in direct competition with Alere, which is also understood to be interested in Axis-Shield's Afinion machine, which can run several tests on a single sample.

The lipid-testing market is expected to be worth some $500m (£305m) by 2013, bigger than Axis-Shield's current largest market, diabetes, at $350m. Alere has said its all-cash offer gives shareholders certainty on a return from their investment, pointing out that no other bidders had emerged since news of the informal approach became public in July.

Analysts had linked a number of big names - including Abbot, Roche and Siemens - with possible counter-bids for Axis-Shield but no offers have emerged.

In its strongly-worded defence document, the Scottish firm - which was created in 1999 through the merger of Shield Diagnostics and Norway's Axis Group - accused Alere of trying to buy it on the cheap.

Chairman John Brown - a life sciences veteran and joint chairman of the Scottish Life Sciences Advisory Board, created to bring industry and government together to grow the sector - branded the bid as "opportunistic and wholly inadequate".

Inverness Medical sold its Lifescan business in the Highland capital to Johnson & Johnson in 2001 for $1.3bn before changing its name to Alere.

[hotfinance14] 26/8/2011 15:12

Great news Gerd.

[gerd212] 26/8/2011 14:28

RNS - FDA clearance for new anti-CCP assay

[scobiebreasley] 26/8/2011 11:56

Innovation is the key to Axis-Shield survival


Published Date: 26 August 2011
By PETER RANSCOMBE

MEDICAL testing kit maker Axis-Shield is more "innovative and nimble" than US suitor Alere and better-placed in emerging markets, its chairman yesterday claimed.
John Brown yesterday told investors that the New York-listed firm "wants to buy their company cheaply" and that its offer was "opportunistic and wholly inadequate". In a strongly-worded defence document, Brown highlighted the rise in sales of the firm's Afinion machine, the expected introduction of a new lipids test - for heart and lung diseases - before the end of the year and the growth of the diabetes testing market in Asia.

The lipids test market is expected to be worth $500 million (£305m) by 2013, bigger than Axis-Shield's largest existing market, diabetes, at $350m.

Brown told The Scotsman: "To be successful you have to be innovative and nimble. We don't feel we need anything more to exploit Afinion. We use a strong sales force in the US and chief executive Ian Gilham and his team have put together a strong strategy for emerging markets."

Alere made an informal approach in June and went hostile earlier this month with its cash offer at 460p-a-share, valuing Dundee-based Axis-Shield at about £230m. Analysts have said a "more appropriate" price could be up to £295m.

Alere yesterday reiterated that its offer gave shareholders certainty on the return from their investment.

[edgar222] 26/8/2011 11:47

Hot

As i said to edgar3 recently I have sold most of my holding, realising a nice profit. I have some left. I have held ASD for years. it went from being a potential blue-sky multi-bagger to a safer company that actually had a product everyone wanted and is now paying a dividend (!) That is unbelievable given the Company I bought into all those years ago.

Given that I continue to believe in Afinion and the business model for it and that we the shareholders have paid for it to happen, I would not want to sell below £10. But, given my smaller holding now that is easy to say. If the shareholders will wait some more the price will get there.

[slaterlpj] 25/8/2011 16:55

As far as I understand the bid is dead in the water, because at least 3 institutional investors who have a significant percentage of the shares, have already said they side with the board and reject the offer. This was in the news the other day. See one of the links above, not sure which it was.

Would be quite a while if ever for 10 quid imo hf. But maybe you'll see 500+ from a bid long before that anyway.

10 years is a long time, thats why I dipped in out after holding for too long myself. At least now I have made my money back and am thus ok sbout 500ish for the take out.

I'd like to see more though so that's why I'm gambling that when the bid fails formally, the share price will hold up. And even if the share price dives, I will buy more as they'ed be very cheap now if they were to fall back to sub 400.

[hotfinance14] 25/8/2011 16:44

I have also held for over 10 yrs and was expecting to see the share price at £10 one day.