Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[aa29] 07/12/2015 21:38

DS - a new excuse for non recurring income?!!

[sg31] 07/12/2015 14:13

Perhaps he was right, just that he doesn't know what "no brainier" means.

Oh I don't know, perfectly qualified to give no brainer comments.

[jadeticl3] 07/12/2015 12:48

Shaunstar, I am amused by your comment that TW is good at finding dodgy companies. You are correct of course, but unfortunately many of the dodgy companies he finds are (in my experience) his star buy recommendations. AVN is one of many gems that he saw as "no brainers". Perhaps he was right, just that he doesn't know what "no brainier" means.

[nw99] 07/12/2015 10:45

Chart looks like a treble bottom I've filled my boots fingers crossed this news is just the start .

[sg31] 07/12/2015 10:34

It's compelling and the latest suggest they are providing the communications capability for ISIS!

I sincerely hope they are.

If they use Avanti for comms you can be assured GCHQ are all over it like a rash.

[nw99] 07/12/2015 08:17

Difficult to buy any size at the moment

[nw99] 07/12/2015 07:58

Expansion in the UK big story

[michaelmouse] 07/12/2015 07:57

Avanti win BT contract.

[nw99] 07/12/2015 07:54

Beat news this am buy

[pennyfalls] 06/12/2015 21:55

Yes, looks like a good deal.

Let's hope there isn't a denial tomorrow! Seems like a certain tie-up the way Sky worded it.

[inscrutable ted] 06/12/2015 18:39

tut tut Whitehall, price sensitive leak?

TW wont be happy about that

[estienne] 06/12/2015 18:38

When it comes to analysis of the share price I don't have your expertise but I do have expert knowledge of satellite communications and I can't see any other comms bearer providing the service offered by Avanti. It ticks all the boxes for performance, reliability and cost.

[yupawiese2010] 06/12/2015 18:37

Possible link up with BT.

[pennyfalls] 06/12/2015 12:46

Just out of interest, Estienne, the phrase is "changed tack", but one of those words that has been misquoted and morphed over time.

Not sure about TW...he seems like a self-serving odious egotist (like the above link - I think he revels in the limelight of being important, albeit on a very small stage) , and I think his shorting mates have certainly got their teeth into Avanti - and he's obviously helping their cause with this self-serving missive.

I think it remains to be seen whether Avanti works or not. I also have my doubts.
Very short-term this looks very oversold on the stoichs and Rsi, and is a tempting buy to bounce back, but could the shorters drive it lower still?

[estienne] 04/12/2015 14:52

I missed the dip to 180 but can't resist buying at this level.

[bulltradept] 03/12/2015 15:54

Market's drifting now soon to be the year low at this rate.

[dangersimpson2] 02/12/2015 17:35

I've read the FY15 annual report but not the FY14 tbf - only the results RNS where they trumpet the revenue growth in the headline and then somewhere later in the RNS say some revenue is project-based but even then don't quantify it.

But that kind of re-iterates my point - it is impossible to tell how they are performing because they move their comparatives all the time - sometimes it's the last quarter, sometimes it's the same quarter in the previous year. They include exceptionals in the year that they occur but strip them out in the prior year comparative. In my experience when companies play these games they are rarely performing well.

As far as I can tell they seem to have the following different types of revenue in order of quality:

1. Data sales - these are the true gold - they should be high margin and paid in normal terms.

2. Equipment sales where they are paid in cash, again good quality but variable in nature.

3. Project sales - where they are paid to do work for a client, good quality but non-recurring.

4. Equipment sales where they are paid over a number of years - presumably they are intended to allow cash strapped customers to generate data sales they couldn't otherwise however these are particularly poor quality earnings since the revenue is booked in year 1 with the cash coming in much later and the risk of bad debt (of which they have had some.) Also since they are lending the money to the customers at about half of their cost of debt capital the longer the terms the worse the deal.

5. Spectrum sales - as far as I can tell these seem to be completely non-cash since there is no up-front payment to them and no accrual in the balance sheet.

Avanti would like you to believe that most of their revenue has been type 1, with a bit of type 2 & 3. But in my opinion a lot more has been 2, 3 & 4 than they would like us to believe with type 5 brought out when they have a really big miss.

Q1 2016 shows the real level of type 1 & 2 revenue imo.