Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[vish65] 10/2/2017 13:22

RP - think your over complicating here. Traf are just being " commercially astute" and have the drive/ aggression to do something about it.

Their motivation in ATYM IMHO is the what's beneath and around the Cerro pit. And then selling this higher grade ore into a copper bull market.

They want to get the show on the road ASAP hence the legal bid to avoid or renegotiate . We already have the supplier deferral payments agreed until 2018 which I suspect is for the agreed set up of complex ore processing facilities.

[jwafc] 10/2/2017 12:57

Are you perhaps overanalysing the situation rp? The "oversight" in the contract is so obvious even I can see it - so it's not surprising Traf are all over it. It would seem they're just chancing their arm and aiming for at least a re-negotiation of the terms - as has been previously postulated.

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 11:49

Here's my thinking...

If Traf really are behind the drive to fight the Astor case, what's their motivation....?

Clearly not to drive ATYM into the ground, so...

Given that they only hold 22% of the shares, either they must be driven by a belief that the shares will be worth very much are than this in the near future or...

They have a medium term predatory interest and want the Company to "spring clean" before their approach...

So here is the key paragraph from 2015...

"As security, inter alia, for the obligation to pay the Deferred Consideration to Astor, EMED Holdings (UK) Limited has granted a pledge to MRI Resources AG over the issued capital of EMED Tartessus and the Company has provided a parent company guarantee. The mining Permit Approval has been satisfied, however the Group has not entered into arrangements in connection with a Senior Debt Facility and, in the absence of drawdown of funds by the Group pursuant to a Senior Debt Facility, there is significant doubt concerning the legal obligation on the Company to pay any of the Deferred Consideration."

If I was interested in bidding for ATYM, I would want the Deferred Consideration matter cleared up and especially to get rid of the 15.9 million Euro liability or, at the very least crystallise it into a one-off liability, even if it had to be consolidated into the total Astor liability. If the Court rules that it is not due now or in the near future, that only leaves the matter of the pledge over the issued capital...

The question then becomes whether, on a takeover, the Astor debt would immediately crystallise...if it did, it simply effectively becomes part of the consideration, adding another 53/69 Euros (£45/60m), i.e. 40/50p).

However, the other shareholders would surely want at least 300p...

BUT...at $3/lb, I estimate that ATYM would be pulling a pre-tax profit of £65m pa, equivalent to 56p EPS so, even at an all-in consideration of, say 350p, a bidder would be getting the Company on an exit P/E of just over 6 times, which is hardly taxing...and that is without the additional drilled and undrilled resources...

Let me be clear that I am NOT forecasting a bid...I am simply asking what is in it for Traf to be pushing the Astor case...and what is in it for them in general, apart from the obvious fact that they have Aguas Tenidas mine only 47 minutes away and the new and exciting Mina Magdalena only 30 minutes away from Proyecto Rio Tinto....(hxxp://www.trafigura.com/about-us/structure/trafigura-mining-group/)

Doesn't that make sense as a portfolio...logistically...economies of scale...?

And with a copper price that many, including Goldmans, think is going to $3 and beyond, ATYM remains one of the brightest stars in the mining firmament, which is why so far I've bought back c15,000 of the c25k that I sold...

Anyhow, whatever the rhyme or reason, and especially at a copper price which keeps pushing $2.70 (and even if it drops back briefly on the Astor ruling) this share remains a no-brainer for me at these levels...or lower...

AIMHO as usual...

PS...of course I have an agenda...for these shares to go higher and keep going higher...isn't that what we all want...? (Except maybe if you're out or, like Mr O on LSE, want to buy back in at 100p...some chance... GLA ;-)

[acamas] 10/2/2017 10:10

I put in a reasonable sell yesterday and immediately the bid price was dropped to make my sell unattractive. They did not want my shares yesterday that is for sure. So I still hold them

[neilweymouth] 10/2/2017 10:06

It's interesting that after my buy of 4000 the offer went up to 144.95 then after the 5000 sell down to 143.7
It doesn't take much to move the price around, ANTO,KAZ,GLEN all going in the correct direction, fingers crossed.

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 10:03

The two at 142.5 are sells reba IMO....

The buys are at 144/144.5, including two of mine...

Remember it is not the MMs that book them as Sells/Buys...the algorithm simply divides the spread by two and then allocates accordingly...but that in my opinion is how the MMs can manipulate...
When the spread was 145/150 the bid was actually c145 but the offer was c148.5, so the true mid price should have been 146.75 and we wouldn't have this problem...

AIMHO as usual...

[shortarm] 10/2/2017 09:22

Copper over 2.70 again...Maybe it will stick this time!?

[reba] 10/2/2017 09:19

Why when there is a trade shown, and the price sold is the current figure, do they always show it as a sell. Never a buy.? Two this morning at 142.5 ( current price )are shown as sells. Questionable.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/2/2017 09:11

The head of the union at the world’s biggest copper mine says he’s never seen owner BHP Billiton Ltd. this reluctant to cede ground over wages. That’s why he’s preparing for a long strike..



The Escondida shutdown comes as exports are halted from Freeport McMoRan Inc.’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, threatening supplies just as prices recover to the highest level since June 2015. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the two mines are set to produce almost 9 percent of global mine supply this year and the disruptions may coincide with stronger demand from China to drive prices higher in the second quarter.

[rougepierre] 10/2/2017 08:31

Brilliant...pocketed another 5k at 144/144.5...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 09/2/2017 18:12

That note puts our little mine in perspective RP..

Analysts expect the strike to last 1 or 2 weeks, and reduce global supply by 45KT of Copper.. more than we make a year..!

The Freeport Indonesia export ban is still in place, and all these supply outages will add up driving prices.., sooner or later we will see fair value..

[rougepierre] 09/2/2017 17:35

Goldmans bullish on copper...(having been caught short last year...)

[acamas] 09/2/2017 16:02

martincc,

Can you explain a little more, on todays volume it would take ten weeks to accumulate one and half million shares. What do you classify as a position?

[acamas] 09/2/2017 15:58

waterloo01,

Good point just what is Astor's view on holding these shares?

My thinking in relation to MM's actions if they are building volume on their book and they do not want to increase their holding in ATYM still further. Then apply the brakes by dropping the bid price so that sellers dry up for a while

[martincc] 09/2/2017 15:58

Someone trying to build a position without moving the price?

[waterloo01] 09/2/2017 15:53

Not convinced it works that way. MM just make a market. Suspect either or both no buyers in volume and a seller?

Do Astor still hold any shares? Just a thought.

[acamas] 09/2/2017 15:50

Not many buyers about they have just dropped the bid price by 2p. So I assume the MM's do not wish to buy

[waterloo01] 09/2/2017 15:39

Who buys 1 share?

[waterloo01] 09/2/2017 15:39

Who buys 1 share?

[husbod] 09/2/2017 13:47

Confirmed strike at Escondida Chile which is the world's largest copper mine producing 5% of the world supply.

The owners have confirmed there will be no production during the strike - not a great surprise perhaps.

In the meantime we sink a little further.

[waterloo01] 09/2/2017 13:03

Appeal.Haven't had judgement yet!

[jwafc] 09/2/2017 12:51

Oh god, the Court of Appeal. Please save us from this...

[waterloo01] 09/2/2017 09:19

O'T. How rigged is AIM? On another share which I hold across 2 different platforms I've put in a sell order and said I want it displayed. It hasn't been on L2. So I tried a dummy buy on a different platform for the same amount of shares and was offered to buy at a higher price than my sell order.

Hardly a level playing field.

[waterloo01] 09/2/2017 07:46

Stock etc, cheers. Only snippets indeed. Next time I'll record it as my note taking and hearing are poor(just joking about recording naturally).

Definition of senior debt was certainly discussed at some length, and think the judge had a fairly clear view on it, but guess we'll find out when we get his judgement.

[shortarm] 09/2/2017 07:34

I've also spent a lot of time in bars :-)