Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[iankn73] 13/1/2017 16:17

Looks like $2.70 will get taken out soon. Looking forward to getting Astor case out of the way.

What do you reckon a late flurry of buys before the closing bell. In the event that a RNS is released Monday morning.


Have a good weekend all.

[pawsche] 13/1/2017 16:15

@rougepierre: 13 Jan '17 - 13:56 - 4761

If anyone has L2 you can find out the identity of which MMs are bidding which prices...

Bids at the time of posting...

151.00 - BMCM CFEP
150.00 - SCAP PEEL NUMS CANA
147.00 - WINS
142.00 - INV

(Edited to add) all blocks of 2500.
(Further edited) CFEP was probably the culprit, the time on the buy order listing was 15:28 which probably means they dropped the bid from 153 to 151.

HTH.. :-)

[rougepierre] 13/1/2017 16:13

So...the APPARENT Bid drops to 151 only 5 minutes after one of the MMs pays 155.4 for 1440 shares...do they think we're stupid?

The current ACTUAL Bid is 154.36 BTW and the ACTUAL Offer is 156.95 in NMS of 2500...

None of the MMs is offering more than 5000 shares within the 'Quote' of 157p, BUT....

They'll still buy 50,000 shares inside the 'Quote' of 151...

Jeez!!!

I'm more and more convinced this is ready to pop...irrespective of what happens in the next 20 minutes...unless the copper price drops back sharply...

Currently $2.67...

[pawsche] 13/1/2017 16:09

I find it remarkable that with copper at 2.67 we're down 1p...

[rougepierre] 13/1/2017 15:55

Done! (the admin cost change)...

waterloo...I've waited all the way from sub 80...I'm still going to keep half indefinitely...I am very happy to wait for the last £13,000 or so...

after all I've promised the friend who tipped me originally a case of Champagne...

and my wife has a big birthday this year and I would love to treat her...

cheers!

[rougepierre] 13/1/2017 15:51

According to you CuFe I post nonsense most of the time... ;-)

Meanwhile Super Bob...sorry that was a typo. Obviously the Operating Costs are subsumed in the Gross Margin...

It should have said Admin Costs which were 4645 in Q3...

Hope that helps and I'll change the descriptor above...

Cheers

[rougepierre] 13/1/2017 15:48

Aha! The MMs are trying a tree shake...

Somebody probably thinks that because I keep trying a sell on 50,000 or more I am keen to sell...

WRONG suckers!!!

So transparent...dropped the bid but still prepared to buy 50k at 151 and 30k at 154...

Who are they kidding!!!

Surely nobody would be stupid enough to be spooked out by this obvious ploy?

Assuming we all hold our nerve surely this will go higher again either before the close or on Monday?

COPPER IS NOW NEARLY $2.68...it rose 4 cents in under an hour!!!

AIMHO as usual...

[cufes2] 13/1/2017 15:40

Oh dear . . . Resorting to the old MM "signal" nonsense now . . .

[superbobtaylor] 13/1/2017 15:31

RP,

Where are you getting "Operating Costs of 4.500" from?

SBT

[husbod] 13/1/2017 15:16

That's a nice trajectory isn't it. Pity our share price isn't replicating it......yet.

[rougepierre] 13/1/2017 15:03

Copper up 2c in less than an hour...pushing $2.66

[rougepierre] 13/1/2017 14:59

Ah now was that a signal...?

99 at 156...?

Bidding me 154.3 for the lot and 156 for 30k...10k offered at 158p...

Who says there's no liquidity...

Greater liquidity helps the share price to trade higher...

[sirmoori] 13/1/2017 14:55

About 13Ks worth sold at £1.56 since 11:28 this morning and still 2 vs 1 so there is clearly a limit buyer scooping these all up.

[husbod] 13/1/2017 14:50

Maybe the mystery seller is having second thoughts on his 160 target. Waddya reckon rouge?

[waterloo01] 13/1/2017 14:29

£1.60 will do it!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/1/2017 14:27

I've just been bid 156p on a 'sell all' too, they are going to have to raise their prices to shake out some sellers..!

[acamas] 13/1/2017 14:21

LLB,

I would favour the latter over the former. The world and its dog is expecting good news from the Q4 figures so there should be buyers after what stock is available

[rougepierre] 13/1/2017 14:17

See post 4762 above LLB...

[rougepierre] 13/1/2017 14:15

Meanwhile I've looked at the possible financials for Q4 and FY 2016...

Calculated an average copper price for Q4 of $2.38, so...

Assuming 10,000 tonnes of ore produced, and an average cost of production of $1.88, gives a Gross margin of $0.50, so Gross Profit is:

10,000*2205*0.5/1.08 (average Q4 value of Euro) = 10.208m Euros

Less Admin Costs of 4.500 and Exploration costs of say 0.200 for the quarter, leaves EBITDA at 5.508m Euros

Accumulated EBITDA for the first 9 months was (1.577m) Euros so I calculate that we have positive EBITDA for FY 2016 of

3.931m Euros, equivalent to £3.350m (translated at a period end 0.85)

Meanwhile, looking at Q4 figures alone, after Depreciation and Amortisation of say 2.5m we have a Pre Tax PROFIT for the quarter of 3.008m Euros, or £2.556m

And the accumulated loss for the year would be just under 5m Euros, or £4.25m....

Pretty damn good!

Using EBITDA as a proxy for net operating cashflows, we've generated almost 4m Euros from trading, which certainly mitigates any borrowing requirement...

Indeed even at my Q4 estimate, we are generating the annual equivalent of 22m Euros or almost £19m pa net positive cashflow...

No wonder AL is looking at acquisitions...and who says we won't declare a maiden dividend for 2017...?

Finally...if the MMs are willing to buy 30,000 shares at 1.56 and any amount at 1.54, that suggests to me either a big buy being worked or they anticipate a positive RNS imminently and a consequent rush to buy...!

AIMHO as usual and PLEASE dissect the calculations and assumptions...

Cheers

[shortarm] 13/1/2017 12:49

You still can't buy 10k despite all the pokey little sells

[husbod] 13/1/2017 12:45

An irritating number of PIs taking small profits today.

I know, I know "there's nothing wrong in taking a profit". Well there is if you could take a bigger profit!