Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[acamas] 30/9/2016 08:16

But how much does that 291p represent of all the potential copper we can amass in the area? I become lost on this project when they use the word expansion. The reason I ask is that at 291p a share some long term investors may not be in profit judged by a number of the posts I have read over the last two years

[waterloo01] 30/9/2016 08:15

Good report and much more relaxed about costs. Not easy to compare between reports but seems sensible. I understand Alberto will be doing presentations in a couple of weeks where he'll explain the costs and Q3 performance.

[rougepierre] 30/9/2016 08:11

And on the strength of that I've bought another 5,000 at 86.1...

GLA

[cufes2] 30/9/2016 08:10

Based on a massive assumption . . .

[rougepierre] 30/9/2016 08:08

There seems to be one...simple...inescapable...conclusion from this report...

At an average copper price of $2.88/lb for a 16.5 year LOM...

The NPV of THIS MINE ALONE is $445m....

Or £340m...which is equivalent to...

291p per share...

[cufes2] 30/9/2016 07:05

Agreed, I would use the published actuals rather than some of the (currently incorrect) assumptions in this report to forecast short term results . . .

[charlieeee] 29/9/2016 21:27

It is an extremely technical report for LOM and making assumptions such as that the price of copper will be $2.88 per lb.

The $1.60 cost per lb seems to refer to site costs, rather than be all costs, although some of the others are in other tables.

It does clarify that the big 3 got all of the offtake.

Its purpose is to prove viability over the LOM, rather than Q3 guidance and in some ways, for near term projections, I would suggest that most are better working from the actuals already available in the published Qs, unless one has a lot of time on one's hands in which to really get to grips with such a weighty tomb.

C

[waterloo01] 29/9/2016 21:21

Cheers LLB.

[dofmeister] 29/9/2016 18:12

Operating cash costs are therefore $1.60. The $1.95 figure is life of mine after tax and capex.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/9/2016 17:56

A different consultancy waterloo01, using different measures, not Behr Dolbar as we suspected. Now using C1 cash costs, and AISC (all in cash costs net of Silver credits) / (C3)

But.. in summary, our projected AISC (C3) + EBITDA figures:

2016 - 1.93/lb / $17.8M
2017 - 1.71/lb / $56.9M
2018 - 1.76/lb / $66.7M
2019 - 1.82/lb / $79.9M
2020 - 1.94/lb / $86.4M
2021 - 1.99/lb / $79.8M
2022 - 2.12/lb / $64.2M
2022 - 1.97/lb / $81.6M
2023 - 2.14/lb / $62.4M
2023 - 1.95/lb / $86.1M
2024 - 1.92/lb / $88.0M
2025 - 2.10/lb / $65.5M
2026 - 2.09/lb / $60.8M
2027 - 2.30/lb / $39.5M
2028 - 2.14/lb / $48.6M
2029 - 1.90/lb / $69.5M
2030 - 3.02/lb / $1.00M

We are making money now in 2016 with $1.93 costs and B/E @ $2.03 payable copper, which is the important bit... NPV $445M

I found it interesting to note that the 43-101 report from Feb 2013 had C1 @ $1.57/lb, and C3 (or AISC) @ $1.90/lb, and 3.5 years later and accounting for inflation on costs these now rise a small amount to $1.60/$1.96/lb respectively, so the original Behre Dolbear report was pretty accurate.

Of course Charlieeee, forecasts are 1 thing and achieved results are another, Q3 closes tomorrow, so we will have a snapshot of more achieved results/costs in a couple of weeks time.

[iankn73] 29/9/2016 17:55

Taken from page 180 as the table on page 179 is completed blurred out.

22.1 Forecast Results and Sensitivities
Table 23.1 shows that the net cash flow for the life of the Project of $781M and an NPV of $445 M at a
discount rate of 8%. The Project’s key economic performance parameters are presented below in Table
22.2
Table 22.2 ‐ Key Performance Parameters
Parameter Units Value
Total Attributable Production t Cu in concentrate 574,000
Mine Life Years 17
Operating Cash Cost US$/lb. 1.60
NPV after tax @ 8 % US$M 445
Copper price US$/lb.   2.88
Sensitivity analyses on the project NPV were performed using a ± 5% and 10% variation of operating
costs, copper pricing, and the exchange rate for the Euro: US dollar. As expected, the copper price
variation has the greatest impact on the project NPV, positive and negative. However, the project NPV
remains positive regardless of the decreased copper price or increase in operating costs and exchange
rate differential.

[jwafc] 29/9/2016 17:42

Operating Cash Cost US$/lb. 1.60

[waterloo01] 29/9/2016 17:34

LLB, it's not clear. C1 costs $2.00. No C2 or C3 that I can find.

[shortarm] 29/9/2016 17:21

Why would you RNS that at five past four??

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 29/9/2016 17:21

Anyone else unable to read page 179, the cashflow forecast page..?, or is it my .pdf handler making a dogs breakfast of the download..!

[chelsea101] 29/9/2016 16:43

It's on the website
hxxp://atalayamining.com/blog/filing-of-ni-43-101-technical-report-for-the-riotinto-copper-project/

[waterloo01] 29/9/2016 16:15

Anyone access it? Edit: RNS too early as report no where to be found! Later maybe?

[husbod] 29/9/2016 15:24

Damn I was just going to mention my 12 year old vauxhall Zafira as it must have some copper in it.

Being a leek and dandelion man I am wondering whether anyone watched Coast last night - I should know my own heritage but I had absolutely no knowledge of the fact that at one time two thirds of the world's copper was produced in the Swansea area and that copper,on the bottom of our warships, made our speed and manouevrability superior to the French so that we could more easily give them the usual whipping.

Just a bit of historical info for my fellow posters.

GLEN, ANTO,VED etc up. Wonder how we're doing.

Please don't ban me Erric as I will be forced to post on the other board

[rougepierre] 29/9/2016 09:13

Somebody keeps selling between 3k and 5k at the bottom of the spread...87.001...85.001...