Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/9/2016 18:23

Copper $2.15+ I will take that for starters, and the tick up today on the share price too..!

By my calcs IF we are on a 45 day release date from the resource upgrade for a new 43-101 report, then it will be tomorrow (Friday), so we will soon find out..

[rougepierre] 15/9/2016 18:17

Retirement is the best thing ever invented...!

[manfrom] 15/9/2016 16:22

They've got their foot firmly on the BID, they do not want their client to pay any more than they have to.

[acamas] 15/9/2016 16:04

canaries2,

I have been retired 20 years and I can tell you the only downside is that you never get a day off and every Monday can be a Bank Holiday. So you never have a Bank Holiday Monday to yearn for.

All those people you know that still work are aware you are at home and you can become a candidate to stand in for them. Such as "Dad can you do so and so I cannot get the day off". If you do retire young make sure you tell them all about "me time" and you will not surrender that at any price.

[waterloo01] 15/9/2016 15:51

I see the report mentions 12mpta as a future option out of working capital

[canaries2] 15/9/2016 15:41

Lets hope copper get to $3 then, I'll be mega happy, boosts the retirement fund to more than I need, roll on age 55 when I can start to enjoy the fruits of my investments/gambling ha ha

[tedoby2] 15/9/2016 12:32

rouge FWIW this looks way out to me "At an average copper price of $3 the share price should be c250p/share."

At nameplate we should be producing approximately 100m lb's of cu annualised at a total unit cost of say $1.75/lb. If that's right then the annual PBT should be around $100m and £76m after discounts,off-takes, the Rumbo 5 deal etc.

Given we have a corporation tax holiday initially that would give us an EPS of around 63p and with a P/E of say 10 the share price should be more like £6.30 not £2.50.

AIMHO

GLA

[rougepierre] 15/9/2016 11:38

I've read the Mirabaud report in detail.

The immediate key points are:

Net operations cash outflow for 2016 is $2m, which means they conclude net positive cashflow for H2 of c$1.5m. Year end cash balances $6m after drawing the first Transamine tranche of $14m...

At an average copper price of $3 the share price should be c250p/share.

Here is a brief extract re the H2 Forecast:

Revised 2016 forecast

Costs in H1 were reported at US$2.31/lb mainly due to the higher stripping and the lower recoveries during Phase 1 and the expansion ramp-up period. However, we believe that the cost numbers during the commissioning period are not indicative. Costs will be stabilised
For H2 2016, we are calculating a throughput of ~4.1Mtpa (or 8.2Mt annualised - an average of 6.8Mtpa at end-June and 9.5Mtpa when in full production), increasing to a consistent 9.5Mtpa rate from 2017 onwards. Thus, for H2 2016 we are forecasting production of ~17kt at a total cash cost of ~US$1.95/lb.
We have revised downwards our 2016 production estimate to ~25.5kt of payable copper, while increasing our total C1 cash cost assumption to ~US$2.10/lb, from 30kt and US$1.61/lb respectively in our previous note. That is in-line with the company’s 2016 production guidance of 23.5-27.0kt of fine copper which is based on a targeted throughput range of 6.7-7.1Mt (vs. our estimate of ~6.6Mt).
Against this, the lower-than-expected capital cost of the expansion project (to 9.5Mtpa) has further reduced the Rio Tinto project’s already low capital intensity to an average of US$15.8/tpa. Rio Tinto enjoys low levels of capital intensity of copper production of US$3,947/t (or ~US$1.8/lb of annual copper capacity - well- below its peers, see graphs below), mainly due to existing on-site infrastructure (ie crushing and flotation circuit), resulting in a high project IRR.

[manfrom] 15/9/2016 10:57

look at that spread........86-91, it must be an Aim special,do me a favour!!

[rougepierre] 15/9/2016 10:37

December N.Y. copper closed up 490 points at 215.05 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a three-week high today. The copper bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls gained upside momentum today, to suggest a market bottom is in place. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 225.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 206.40 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 216.15 cents and then at 218.00 cents. First support is seen at 214.00 cents and then at 212.00 cents.

[waterloo01] 15/9/2016 08:16

The imminent positive cash flow (at current copper prices we expect Rio Tinto to break even
during H2) combined with our medium to long-term positive view on copper (see p8), makes
Atalaya an attractive proposition in the London market.
Although not a low-cost producer (we calculate LoM all-in sustaining cash costs at
~US$2.00/lb), Atalaya (a pure-play debt-free Cu producer) is among our top-pick copper
recovery stories as the earlier-than-expected comme

[chelsea101] 15/9/2016 07:49

LLB, could this be the reason?



Copper Rises Most in 3 Months on Signs of Better Chinese Growth

Copper posted the biggest gain in almost three months as strong economic data from China fueled speculation that demand will strengthen in the Asian nation, the world’s largest metals consumer. An index of global mining stocks advanced for the first time in six days.

China’s broadest measure of new credit exceeded estimates in August, rebounding from a month earlier and bolstering evidence that growth is stabilizing. Chinese reports this week on factory output, investment and retail sales all exceeded economist estimates.

“The Chinese data is improved,” Michael Turek, the head of base metals at BGC Partners Inc. in New York, said in an e-mail. “Credit has been easier. That enables manufacturing to operate more smoothly and profitably and reduces bankruptcies.”

Copper for delivery in three months rose 2.6 percent to $4,771.50 a metric ton ($2.16 a pound) at 5:50 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, the biggest increase since June 15.

The Bloomberg World Mining index of producers added 0.4 percent, heading for its first gain since Sept. 6.

Users, including power-wiring companies, are stepping up purchases of copper ahead of China’s autumn festival after prices fell, Xu Maili, an analyst with Everbright Futures Ltd., said by phone from Shanghai. The three-day Chinese holiday starts Thursday.

In other metals news:

Copper stockpiles fell in Shanghai and London.
Aluminum, zinc, lead and tin gained on the LME, while nickel dropped.
Glencore added 2.5 percent in London trading. Societe Generale SA raised its share-price estimate, citing supportive commodity prices and the possibility that the company may resume dividend payments next year.
The Yangshan copper premium, a barometer of supply and demand in bonded warehouses in the city, has also recovered from a record low, indicating increased demand for imports.
Copper futures for December delivery gained 2.5 percent to $2.155 a pound on the Comex in New York.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/9/2016 18:03

Copper through $2.15, excellent, now we're heading the right direction again, but what was the trigger, shorts closing at the bottom @ $2.07...?.. and a tick up for us in the morning on the back of it too.. The sooner we see $2.25/2.35 the better clearly for B/E..

[rougepierre] 14/9/2016 17:09

Looks like the spike is breaking out of the top of the Pennant formation that tracks back to June...

There's a bigger/longer Pennant that track back to October 2015...$2.20 would bust us out of that and then next resistance is around $2.25/2.28...

Above $2.40 and we're definitely off to the races...!

AIMHO as usual...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/9/2016 16:42

We will get a lift tomorrow Specks.., always seems to be a day behind at ATYM...!

[spcecks] 14/9/2016 16:36

Thought we would rise today with the copper price.

[canaries2] 14/9/2016 16:30

nice to see copper up 2.5% i,m quite heavy in Copper plus ATYM which isn't following copper at the moment, should do if copper holds or even increase to 2.22-2.25 area.

[rougepierre] 14/9/2016 16:27

Copper $2.1522 up over 2.5%....

[rougepierre] 14/9/2016 13:36

Always read your posts with interest LLB...

Copper $2.1343...

Just ploughed my modest profits from the last couple of weeks trading in ATYM into WRES...Spain/Portugal based; on the verge of major mining like us; could be a takeover target for us in due course (as the BoD has targeted expansion and acquisitions...

tungsten/copper/gold play...geographics make great sense...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/9/2016 13:24

I see you noticed my attempt at humour RP..!

We are tracking copper now, simple as that.., the technical traders will do what they do.., levels will break out, buyers will pile in on the chart, and movements in the share price will happen..

I accept tho', that if enough people trade the charts, they can be a very good indicator, and predictions can be made, but for me I just don't have the time to keep revisiting decisions, that's what can beat you up mentally. I make a bet, and sit on it..

[rougepierre] 14/9/2016 13:02

As do trading algorithms....

Oh and Dillinger was guns...not Bollinger bands...

[canaries2] 14/9/2016 13:00

Charts are a bit like iphones a lot of people follow and that makes them work.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 14/9/2016 12:49

I'm not a chartist RP, and make my bets on fundamentals, not technical Dillinger band movement and breakouts...., this is a derisked copper play now.., and we're back in the $2 and teens..., keep on rolling...!

[rougepierre] 14/9/2016 11:58

200 day MA bottomed out late August...now sits at 94p...20 day MA moved up a week ago...50 day next....then on to a Golden Triangle...?

Price chart breaking out of downward Bollinger Band, Price Channel and Moving Average envelope, suggests a new uptrend established...

Barchart.com supports all of that, with the next resistance level at 94, which is major as it coincides with the 200 Day MA...

AIMHO as usual...