Ashmore Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 01/5/2015 22:03

Odey have, out of interest, started to capitulate on a different and significant short position on TalkTalk which is not going their way. They don't always get it right.

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP.

[philo124] 01/5/2015 21:11

Odey , pretty sharp guy and nice but as you say he might have got this wrong.

[quepassa] 01/5/2015 13:30

Interesting.

Odey's significant short position is beginning to go against them significantly in my view.

Odey Asset Management increased their large short position in Ashmore to c. 5% in December 2014. - Then steadily further to a whopping 6.45% by 24th. February this year.

Since then nothing.

The incremental short of approx. 1.5% between December and February will, according to my calculations, be significantly under water by now.

And indeed some of the earlier shorts may also be being tested. ( If I find time, I will do a full analysis of the approx. cost of the shorts over time ).

Is this another short position which Odey have hung onto for too long?

Personally, I see this share going up. I think Odey are sitting on a deteriorating short position.


The thesis of an emerging markets crash may prove incorrect. It appears to me that many, many EM economies will benefit enormously from the massive recent falls in oil and commodities prices which will stimulate them. This will perhaps more than off-set those which suffer marginally.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[alphahunter] 18/4/2015 23:23

Share Buy Backs to support the share price when the s^^^t starts hitting the emerging market debt fan.

Good play on US tightening, but already heavily shorted.
Debt vol + Short/Squeeze vol = trading stock.

my tworupees

[philo124] 16/4/2015 21:01

ASHM is a long term hold and my view is that overtime, say the next 12-18 months the share price will recover to £4+.

[quepassa] 16/4/2015 20:38

Let's hope so. But DYOR.
What's your view and opinion please?

QP

[philo124] 16/4/2015 18:54

Hope ur right; in SIPP and Isa.

[quepassa] 15/4/2015 08:55

Based on a thesis of greater future inflows of funds into emerging markets and a re-rating of existing markets due to overdone political concerns, my personal target is higher than the brokers.

My personal guess is much nearer 400p+ within six months.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 14/4/2015 10:37

Broker notes and Recommendations today following the Trading Update:-


- Cantor Fitzgerald Retains their BUY reco with an unchanged Target Price at 375p

- Numis Retains their BUY reco with an INCREASED Target Price of 340p (332p)

- JPM Caz Retains their Underweight reco but INCREASES their Target Price to 290p (280)p


Cantors see 20% upside to share price. Numis see 10% upside.


ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 14/4/2015 08:54

Hold a rubber band between your two fingers and start pulling it back.

When it has gone as far as it will go, one of two things happens.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 14/4/2015 08:31

The announcement overall seems positive in my view.

The Trading Update gives a three month view of AUM. - Shame that there is no breakdown between Jan, Feb and March as it would be fascinating to see the split and trend over each of those three months.

One can speculate that the AUM movements for January may look very different to March in certain sectors.

It is noteworthy that there was no outflow in the equities category.

This is what the CEO says in closing his outlook statement:-

"In our experience, while flows tend to lag investment performance, the absolute and relative value opportunities across the range of Emerging Markets asset classes will increasingly be recognised by investors."


Personally, that's what I think too. The recent markets for EM equities remain increasingly buoyant in my view.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 10/4/2015 12:29

Strong price increase this week.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 10/4/2015 11:15

This recent Motley Fool article from 30/3 is interesting:




ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 10/4/2015 11:02

This share has definitely lagged the recent pick-up in emerging markets.

After getting knocked back heavily in the downturn last year and caught/tarnished with the Russo-Ukraine scares, it may now have some legs to it.

Looking like a very interesting play perhaps.

Good, reliable yield.

The company Outlook talk about near-term gains.

Russia has improved, Shanghai Index dramatic rise, Southern Europe strong gainer. All this perhaps indicates that risk money may soon again start looking for value in the Emerging Markets

When others are fearful......

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[cwa1] 16/3/2015 14:32

Not currently invested here but thought holders might be interested:-

[speedsgh] 16/3/2015 12:23

Ashmore: 66% Margins And £547m Net Cash -

[busthief2] 24/2/2015 10:31

yes, ditto, happy to hold, price should rise to the mid 320's for the divi.....

[gostevie63] 24/2/2015 08:37

Yes, pleased with the increase in profit and dividend. Happy to hold.

[philo124] 24/2/2015 08:13

Yes, good.

[its the oxman] 24/2/2015 08:10

Fairly positive results and dividend today. Could help get us to 330p

[its the oxman] 20/2/2015 22:04

Could well recover quickly on any good news but still well down myself on this one. Hoping for a move upto 330p near term.

[philo124] 20/2/2015 16:27

Good recovery.

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[philo124] 22/1/2015 20:20

Fair enough. I've missed further gains on 3 stocks recently where I sold too soon, but all were in profit.