Ashmore Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 17/4/2024 08:47

Given what is going on with global interest rates this weakness no surprise.A small consolation is that to the extent that the us dollar continues to strengthen against the pound, earnings expressed in pounds tends to increase.
I do not see myself selling and may buy on further weakness as I have v little EM exposure and use my ASHM holding as my EM holding.

[cerrito] 15/4/2024 21:56

City reaction as per FT

David McCann, an analyst at Numis, said he had a “negative stance” towards Ashmore based on “the weak medium to long-term investment performance”, which he said could “weigh on flows for the foreseeable future”
Analysts at Citi said these underlying trends would “remain weak,” noting that “investor bearishness” would continue. “We remain cautious on flow outlook over the near term and would wait for sustained improvement in relative performance before becoming more constructive,” they added.
Rae Maile, analyst at Panmure Gordon, said the reduction in interest rates should “bring about the long-awaited turn in the company’s flows”. He added that investment performance “remains good across a broad range of the company’s strategies”.

[cerrito] 15/4/2024 21:05

I see that late last week JP Morgan Cazenove were prescient and lowered the target price to 184.

[cerrito] 15/4/2024 15:57

If I have understood correctly, they will get performance fees of £16m this FY which if true would be great and comfortably the largest in the last few years.Please correct me if I have misread.
That said of course management fees are far more important and even in H1 of the current FY were £84m.H2 figures will probably be lower with today's news.Sobering to think that 2 years ago at 31.3.22 AUM was USD78m.

[mister md] 15/4/2024 12:53

I've taken a small initial position here this morning, mainly for the attractive dividend and recovery potential. That said, there are attractive dividends all over the place now ! No wonder the FTSE is attempting to cross the 8000 mark again ...

[cwa1] 15/4/2024 12:05

UBS cuts Ashmore price target to 190 (200) pence - 'neutral'

[davethehorse] 15/4/2024 08:17

Not a great update but wouldn't be too worried going forward either, looks a decent opportunity to buy at 180p level with interest rates eventually, (hopefully) falling later this year

[davethehorse] 12/4/2024 08:33

AuM update for Ashmore Group is on Monday....

[davethehorse] 11/4/2024 10:51

I believe the next AuM update is due next week...gl holders...

[davethehorse] 11/4/2024 10:11

Look at POLR today....positive inflows into its funds this year, inc Emerging Markets. Ashmore well placed to benefit too and the shares don't deserve to be where they are imo...300p target in 2024.

[davethehorse] 10/4/2024 13:15

Have bought a good chunk here today....can see loads of upside during 2024 as long term yields (eventually!) fall...gl holders....;-)

[cerrito] 16/2/2024 21:20

I have been looking at some broker notes after the interims.
UBS  is neutral with a 12 month tp of 205p.They comment that H1 24 adjusted EBITDA margin was the lowest ever. They note that the half year's variable compensation was 33pc higher than consensus. They have upped this year's eps to 14.95pc. They see no change in dividends in the years to come.
Numis have raised their target price from 165p to 180p and now have a reduce rather than sell. They see no obvious case to own the shares and that weak medium to long term investment performance will weigh on AUM sales and retention. They foresee a maintained dividend through to FY25/26.
Jefferies has a buy and a tp of 220p.They note the surplus capital.

[albert arthur] 12/2/2024 15:27

Exdivi on 29th circa 7% yield... nice..

[woozle1] 08/2/2024 16:06

Seems like investors waking up. I looked at LIO but was not convinced it has a defensible market position like Ashmore. It wants to charge active fees in a crowded market and quite frankly so many UK active managers don't deviate that far from their benchmark indicis. I know there are ETFs and low-cost options in EM but there are not that many specialists with the scale and reach of ASHM.

That said, it looks like a player that will roll up other FMs and assuming they pay decent prices the share price will do well.

[brucie5] 07/2/2024 15:07

I hold ASHM and LIO, among other financials. But these two look especially good for recovery. I was surprised to see the dip this morning; but seems to be recovering. Perhaps a weak attempt to shake out the flaky holders?

[woozle1] 07/2/2024 15:03

Coombs is an outstanding contrarian investor and I hope he's around for some time. You can not understate the value of experience in an asset class like EM. He'll not be easily spooked by volatile markets and he can see over the top of the waves to the horizon. Once US interest rates start to fall, investors will start looking around for riskier assets and the shares are an easy double on a 2-3 year basis. In the meantime, there is a juicy 8% DY. Happy days!

[1jat] 07/2/2024 14:42

One third of the market cap is cash.
This is very much a geared play on EM coming back into favour with institutional investors….current dividend is covered and Mr Coombes has a 30% interest which means he has effective control. He is 63, not a great age, but a time of life where he needs to consider succession and also his personal wealth management…..

Although Buffett has gone on through his 80s, Mr Coombes may not and he may be well advised to sell up soon….and start working on his legacy foundation.

[cerrito] 07/2/2024 09:44

Having looked at this morning's news my feeling is to do nothing.Agree with their comments that big picture EM promising but I see that in this last half net revenue was £94m compared to £138m in the same period in 2021. What saved them this time is interest income ie operating profit pre interest income in this last period was £34m compared to £118m in 2021.

[brucie5] 15/1/2024 13:15

Hopefully. Graham gives it benefit of the doubt on Stocko.


I hold.

[ih_841715] 15/1/2024 12:23

So AuM up driven by performance. Unless investor psychology has changed, they tend to move after performance and not before, which means inflows should follow, which means rerating, hopefully

[valuehurts] 06/1/2024 09:46

Usd strength

[rjmahan] 04/1/2024 11:26

Any idea why the big fall yesterday?

[davethehorse] 29/12/2023 10:27

POLR finally breaking out now....10% divi and PE of 9....looks very under valued and a AuM update due on the 12th Jan, ripe for a re rate...;-)