Ashmore Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 29/4/2016 09:09

To put matters into perspective, Odey's short position was a whopping 6.74% on 11/2/16. This is now rapidly down to 4.72%.

The recent FT article referred to by me a few days ago highlights the bad start to the year for Odey.

Their position in Ashmore appears to me increasingly to be going against them and the question for me is how much more financial pain (and media embarrassment) they can stand if the Ashmore short position rapidly goes against them.

My guess is that Odey are considering their position with increasing focus, if not with increasing consternation.

Either way, market sentiment towards EM is far better and this feeds undoubtedly through to Ashmore.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 29/4/2016 08:48

My guess is that we shall see 325p ++ in fairly short order.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 29/4/2016 08:47

Some big chunks traded yesterday and my guess was that this was further closing of shorts.


And yes......new FCA short positions disclosed today reveal just that......



Odey down another 0.11% from 4.83% to 4.72%, and

Discovery down another 0.07% from 1.76% to 1.69%.



Very supportive of the price.



There appears to be a strong REPEAT PATTERN that Odey and Discovery are both actively now reducing their short positions.


This means a strong demand for stock.

A GREAT TIME to buy perhaps when there appears to be an entrenched demand to buy stock and an apparent desire to close out some very large short positions.

Apart from the likely demand for stock by shorters, the fundamental outlook for the sector appears to me to be rapidly on the turn to the postive phase of the EM cycle.


The Bear Squeeze likely to exert firmer pressure in my view in the near-term.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 28/4/2016 16:32

A very strong rebound from a low opening today for Ashmore with a close at c. 310p being a new high for the year.

Up 50% since the Feb lows and climbing.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[philo124] 28/4/2016 08:50

Good relative strength.

[quepassa] 28/4/2016 08:41

In my view, the historic yield for Ashmore of 5.42% looks very attractive against a strengthening market.

In my view only, going forward I see a great likelihood that the recent dividends (interim 15/16 4.45p and final 2015 of 12.10p) will at least be maintained, if not increased.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 28/4/2016 07:50

Very robust recent Q1 2016 trading statements from Big Brother Schroders and burgeoning Henderson ( who have a lot of Far East/EM AUM ) corroborate an improving market for asset managers.

The difficult start in Jan/Feb to 2016 is fading from memory as a new optimism returns to the sector.

The upcoming Rio Olympics should not be underestimated as a stimulant to interest in investing in LatAm.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[its the oxman] 27/4/2016 22:29

Be nice to see 400p again

[quepassa] 27/4/2016 15:04

If you read the latest Insights report on the AshmoreGroup website, it reads as pretty good news for Emerging markets. A great read-across for the Group as a whole.

Everyone knows that EM are highly cyclical.

The cycle is now firmly on the upturn.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 27/4/2016 08:39

Apart from Odey, the other big short on Ashmore is Discovery Capital Management LLC.

Clearly, Discovery are also changing their minds about Ashmore.

They have on 25th. April again just reduced their short by 0.23% from 1.99% to 1.76%.

Discovery's position was 2.5% at the beginning on the year and now steadily being reduced.

Seems to me that with oil back into the $40's and many commodities rebounding off a low base, combined with improving econo-data out of China, that the Emerging Markets will start attracting one heck of a lot more interest.

My view is that the outlook for Ashmore is increasingly positive.

It does not surprise that Odey and Discovery are continuing to close short positions.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[philo124] 25/4/2016 15:43

lol. He's a really nice Guy btw.

[quepassa] 25/4/2016 12:24

The Friday 22nd April FT says it all in an article on p.20 headed " Odey fund suffers dismal start to year".

As if 2015 wasn't bad enough where Odey European ended 2015 down 12.8% according to the FT, making it one of the worst performances among large hedge funds in the world that year, it seems that 2016 is even worse so far.

The FT article starts: " A brutal start to 2016 for Crispin Odey, the outspoken British investor, has wiped out almost half a decade of trading profits in his flagship hedge fund in less than four months".


Against such a terrible start, one cannot rule out the possibility that Odey's residual massive short in Ashmore may or may not continue to cause severe corporate angina.

One notes how Odey have actively been reducing the short. My guess is that they will continue to do so with alacrity.

Maybe Ashmore should consider shorting Odey funds??

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 22/4/2016 08:19

Odey has further significantly reduced their short position on Ashmore.

On 19th. they reduced from 5.49% by 0.66% to a short position of 4.83%.


Supportive for the share price.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 20/4/2016 16:07

Strong recovery for Ashmore into significantly positive territory at close, after a market pullback at open on a generally negative day.

The Brazil effect not to be underestimated.

Rebound in Brazilian real is helping all investors exposed to this country. Not just Ashmore (but look for example at how leading spanish insurance company MAPFRE is surging with big operations in Brazil).

The Brazil stock market is up a whopping 30% since Feb and the real up 13%.

This 2 day old article in the WSJ makes important and fascinating reading, headed

"Brazil’s Political Turmoil Doesn’t Scare Off International Investors"



All bodes very well for Ashmore.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 20/4/2016 08:13

re post 243.

Odey yet again reduced their short position on 13/4 by another 0.23% from 5.725 to 5.49%.


Good for share price.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[philo124] 19/4/2016 12:55

Yes very good. Broker reckons should see 325p soon.

[quepassa] 19/4/2016 08:32

Very upbeat and positive Trading Update.

Overall a robust performance considering how poor the market was overall in Jan and Feb.

Bodes very well indeed in my view for the prospects of Ashmore.

Brazilian markets are surging on the prospect of a new government with the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff.

In many ways, Brazil has been a bellwether for emerging markets. When you see money going back into Brazil, it is frequently a positive sign for risk appetite returning for other EM countries.

Very encouraging.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 14/4/2016 09:49

UPDATE.
IMPORTANT.

More concrete evidence that shorts are closing.

Both Odey and and Discovery further reduce their short positions on Ashmore
.

On 12th April.

Odey reduced by 0.34% from 6.06% short to 5.72% short, and

Discovery reduced by 0.10% from 2.09% short to 1.99% short.




This would appear to me to be further evidence that a squeeze is happening and may or may not account for the big spike in price earlier this week.


Of course , it would hard for shorts to reduce positions of this size in one go, so bit by bit.


However, my guess is that if the market keeps buying Ashmore stock, there may be or may not be a scramble to buy stock by shorters.

George Soros, where are you?

Would-be George Soros's may also apply.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 14/4/2016 08:47

Since 22nd March when Discovery Capital management had a declarable short on Ashmore of 2.41%, they have steadily been reducing their position.

As at 7th. April, they were down to 2.09%.

A reduction of some 13% in some three weeks.

Since the last reduction in their short on 7th. April, the share price has further surged and further gone against their short position.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 13/4/2016 09:12

In my opinion only, Odey have got it wrong big time.

The surging oil price will stimulate oil- producing emerging markets.

Even highly-conservative Triple-A rated Morton are buying Ashmore




ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[philo124] 12/4/2016 18:29

Very pleased.

[quepassa] 12/4/2016 16:23

All it would need, in my view and guess only, is a number of hedge funds to come in and start buying and this may or may not go super-nova.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 12/4/2016 16:12

Odey have a 6.06% short position on Ashmore according to Short-tracker.
- ADVFN analytics show that Ashmore have c.707million shares in issue, meaning that Odey control approx 42.8million shares of Ashmore.

With a near 15 pence uptick in today's sp, Odey have, if my calculations are correct, lost approx £6.4million on their short position so far today at time of writing.

One cannot rule out the possibility that Odey may or may not be contemplating the wisdom or otherwise of maintaining their short position on ASHM against the ongoing surge in share price.

A major bear-squeeze may or may not be a possibility.

Discovery Capital Management are short on ASHM by 2.09%. A similar situation perhaps.

A fascinating tussle between bulls and bears, shorts and longs.

It would not surprise me if the shorts get a real caning by the market on Ashmore.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 12/4/2016 11:04

300-310p will trigger, in my opinion only, A LOT of closing-out of short positions.

A real scramble for stock is likely already building.

I hate saying it but I really wouldn't like to be caught short on this one.


Good luck to all investors.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP