Aptamer Share Discussion Threads

[multibagger] 08/5/2024 12:30

Circa 4m+ sold over about 21min...looks like NS could be bailing out ?

Probably gone under 3% now and if my speculation is correct, a TR1 will land later today or within a day or two.

[multibagger] 08/5/2024 06:50

Good morning timbo003 and all :)

Thank you for kindly sharing this excellent Drug Delivery Solutions podcast which makes understanding the Optimer tech much easier to understand for non-scientific folk.

A Turner Pope (House Broker) Note from 05 Feb 2024 (apologies if it has been already posted before) talks about 2 x medium term opportunities totally worth circa £6m.

[multibagger] 06/5/2024 07:37

Good morning marinelife, timbo003 and all :)

I fully agree with you that the potential upside from the various irons in the fire far outweigh the risk of dilution IMHO. The size of upfront payments for gene delivery and aptamer conjugated drug delivery systems is huge and typically seems to several tens of million $. Even if it could be argued that these multi million $ payments were for "products" which were further down the clinical development pathway, it could follow that "proof of concept" products could generate at least single digit million payments be it in diagnostics, specialised reagents or therapeutics ?

In a recent online recent presentation relating to Metabolic Associated Steato-Hepatitis (MASH or "fatty liver" - a common liver condition globally that can sometimes progress to cirrhosis and liver failure) on potential drug delivery mechanisms , Dr DB displayed the selective and specific, non-toxic, profile of an APTA optimer targeting diseased "fatty cells" in the liver whilst not binding with healthy liver cells.

This to me is the scientific equivalent of a Holy Grail for drug delivery - from a company with a market cap of less than £3 million !

The Boehringer upfront deal with Ochre Bio for what appears a similar technology has been inked at $35m (for investigating a range of targets) and could finally end up around $1.3 Billion !



The APTA founders Dr Arron Tolley and Dr David Bunka have been far, far more diluted than any of us can ever be and I sincerely feel for them.

From each owning 50% of a very successful company which was doubling revenues every year till they IPOed at 117p to what they hold now and at the current share price is a travesty. So there will be zero appetite for equity dilution if at all it can be avoided. I hope they buy some shares from the market to instil more confidence in the Company and park them in their ISAs !! I am sure that they and APTA will overcome this unfortunate debacle and reach their former glory, if not exceed it.

Good luck all !

[timbo003] 06/5/2024 06:06

>>multibagger, I would have thought if Aptamer can sign a significant licencing deal with a large pharma (or consumer Healthcare company) the bend would most likely take the form of a hockey stick 🏑, rather than a gradual change in gradient

[multibagger] 05/5/2024 21:18

Many thanks bones698 and timbo003 !

Just to clarify the £2.1m was cash at the end of 31 Jan 2024, not 31 Dec 2023.

So one additional month of cash buffer they have and cash burn is circa £285k per month.

@timbo003...are you thinking of a mere "bend" or a potential "hockey stick" jump in market capitalisation on landing a significant pharma licensing deal ?

Good luck all !

[marinelife] 05/5/2024 21:15

When a company is worth only £3m a capital raise and dilution, whilst unwelcome, is not moving the dial very much because if sales gain traction the company will be worth >10 tines the current value. I’ve bought it on this basis.

[timbo003] 05/5/2024 17:04

Regarding the charts: the trend is your friend, but watch out for the bend at the end.

That bend at the end could be closer than many here think 🙂

[bones698] 05/5/2024 15:11

So 2.1m as of Dec. We can debate the input of revenue but running coats still remain in 200-300k range imo given a possible increase in revenue from the deals signed.
Using those figures it still pi ts to a raise before eoy and possible sooner imo. I guess we will see who is right down the line and I agree deals could. Lift the share price before hand but will they be in time. Is the question. You believe they will I don't. Each to their own. I would say the chart and share price point towards my way of thinking more but that could change. Whether it does we will see

Gl either way

[multibagger] 05/5/2024 14:23

Many thanks for your kind perspective and rationale....

I am not sure if you have seen this APTA webinar from March 2024



The financial and cash position discussion is from about 9m 20sec onwards.....

According to this slide the cash position was actually (better) at £2.1 as of 31st Jan 2024. So some revenues are coming in.



Another more recent presentation and Andrew Rapson comes in around 13min 23 sec in with regards to finances




Different ways to time the entry into a stock. I am not good at getting the timing right, so I am aim for the "sweet 60%"...in other words I don't expect to buy in the lowest 20% of the share price or be able to sell in the highest 20% of the share price

APTA is publicly listed and hence the primary reason is to raise capital and I am sanguine about it. The only question I ask is it for "survival" or is it for "growth" and given how fund raises come about, it is often piggybacked to some excellent RNS news which propels the share price in the short term and allows a placing at a higher share price than previous level. At this time though money is tight, we are able to keep the lights on fwith about £1.3m in the labs (in production) and a £2.9m sales pipeline.

I accept that a fund raise is likely to happen in the future but not as early as you predict (based on the evidence above), but the way I see it given we are at around 0.68p, any good news of significance can propel this 200+% in the blink of an eye and I don't want to be chasing the buying then.

Good luck - we are all in the market to make money, though our thought processes and methods to get there are different.

[bones698] 05/5/2024 12:54

The group had 1.8m in cash as of 31st dec against a burn rate of 3.5m pa. That means the cash is almost gone even accounting for the income from the deal announced.
300k a month outgoings v 1.8m in the bank. Not hard to see why I say a cash raise is coming is it? We are in month 5 this year that's 1. 2 - 1..5m used although some monies from the new contract will mean slightly less depending on when funds are received.
As I said before the delays in r and d sending from customers has resulted in deals not getting signed and thus will put extra pressure on cash in the bank.

Given the time to organise a placing I would say it's more than a fair assumption based on the companies own figures in the results. Until after the event we can only summise, Until then it can't be fact that's simple logic so asking for facts is stupid tbh when looking forward Facts are historical by nature.

Sce just left it to the last minute to raise funds that didn't turn out well along with many other companies struggling to raise money. That's well known in this market.

They are getting closer here but it will take time and money to get there. Deals take many months to come through if at all and you need cash in the bank to last or raise

I'm not one to dive in listening to rampers I'd happily wait years until the point the company is in a position to no longer be vulnerable to multiple cash raises diluting shareholders at lower prices. There comes a tipping point in many shares I just think apta needs another fund raise or two before its at that point tto succeed and thus there are chances to buy in lower after the fund raise which will be at a discount more than likely.

At the end of the day the point is to make money and buying low selling high. Chance to buy in lower in the future if your willing to wait and maximise gains if you believe the company will succeed.

Revenues need to get to around 4m pa currently around 1.2m there will be a cash call before end of year imo . Some deals may get signed later this year but won't be enough

[multibagger] 05/5/2024 11:18

Hi Bones698,

"...Apata told us they will need money soon, not enough contract wind of any size to avoid that so as an investment it makes sense to wait for that before considering buying imo....

Not sure that I have heard/read that Dr AT or anyone else saying that APTA needs money soon, please can you provide a link to the source of that assertion ? I think AT had put out a tweet contrary to that !



Of course, if that your opinion that money will be needed soon enough that is fair enough - but does not make it a fact but mere speculation based on your reading of their financial situation.

I appreciate that we all have different viewpoints and perspectives and that is precisely what makes the buy and sell sides of the stock market, but it is important to distinguish between fact and opinion.

[bones698] 05/5/2024 10:33

Morning lal
Yes good points the type of clients apta are getting on oars with is very good and why it's on my radar. As you know though these things move very slowly in this sector whether it's contract talks or r and d it'just seems to take an age for things to move forward.

While the names are good the contracts are very small for now and apta does have a funding issue coming very soon. There are ways but for the majority thi reuskts in a big discount especially if its left late. At the bed of ye day it's about buying at The lowest point to maximise gains and when you know funding is coming that is likely the low point. Look at sce recently. Different sector but shows the problems with funding

Apata told us they will need money soon, not enough contract wind of any size to avoid that so as an investment it makes sense to wait for that before considering buying imo
.

[multibagger] 05/5/2024 08:07

Good morning timbo003 and all !

Hope you are having some great weather !

Many thanks for your kind words and warm welcome to your thread and for sharing your career earned insights from big Pharma R&D and Consumer care ! These are priceless to the likes of me :)

There was recent news (below) from Boehringer which is very heartening, as we have been told that APTA are also working in this area of MASH..one pharma licensing deal can be absolutely transformational for APTA and there seem to be number of irons in the fire. To me it is not a question of if, but when....that a big RNS lands and the share price could do several hundred % in a short time as we are starting from a very low share price Anyone remember NCYT during the Covid years going from 6p to £12 plus in a very short span of time ?



I fully agree with you that though some may view APTA with "suspicion" in terms of need to raise funds in the near future, the funding landscape is changing and evolving. There are other ways in which funds could be raised if needed and the likes of Unilever will not want to lose a "strategic technology edge" to the likes of P&G, L'oreal or Biersdorf.

Take for example the recent news from a Japanese pharma consortium looking at an Incubator Fund. From the company power point presentations and logos of partners advertised, I guess we have worked with Takeda in the past and may be doing so currently ?



Another company is called Orchard Therapeutics which recently announced breakthrough therapy for an orphan condition MLD and is reputed to being sold at over $4 million per patient per year....precision medicine solutions are very expensive.





So IMHO the market is grossly mis-pricing the value of precision medicine therapies in a company like APTA and they seem to be working with top 5, top 10 and top 15 pharmas already. I believe that the upside is potentially huge and will act accordingly !

Good luck all :)

[timbo003] 05/5/2024 02:19

Good evening Multibagger (from Palm Springs, Ca), it is good to have you on board.

You may be correct in your analysis bones698, but on the other hand this current dire funding environment will not continue indefinitely. My own view is that we are close to the bottom (if not already off the bottom) of the cycle as far as sentiment towards funding this sort of venture is concerned. As and when sentiment improves, investors will need to change their mindset from expecting a lower price for each successive raise to anticipating upwardly ratcheting prices for each fund raise which will more accurately reflect the (increased) value of the business as projects are progressed and more potential customers are taken on board. Aptamer have sufficient cash until the end of the year, so I suspect they will not need to approach potential funders until Q4, that means there are 4+ months to sign up more deals with the likes of Unilever and the top 15 pharma (precision liver medicine deveopment).

It is also worth noting that in the case of Unilever, the project has now moved to the next stage. In my experience (25+ years R&D big pharma/Consumer Healthcare) this step normally represents a significant ratchet up in effort and resources by the customer. Aptamer they will now have an internal champion within Unilever and they have now evidently managed to compete successfully against other (in house and external) Unilever pojects to secure internal resource.

One other point to consider, many of Apta's current and prospective customers have very deep pockets and many have an established venture funding arm (including Unilever) so do not rule out one (or more) of them taking a strategic stake in Apta at some stage in the not too distant future.

[bones698] 05/5/2024 00:59

Good deal but no jumbwrs attached and apta soon running low on cash so another rights ts issue coming probably sub 0.5p this time. Unfortunately progress is slow signing deals and getting revenue up quick enough to avoid it. Back down it goes

[multibagger] 04/5/2024 20:06

Good evening and many thanks for sharing timbo003 !

It is very heartening to hear of the immense potential of Optimers from someone at the frontline of cancer research therapeutics. The flexibility and ability to tailor the solution are real gamechangers it would appear.

[timbo003] 04/5/2024 15:13

A bit of light reading for the long weekend:

[washingmachine] 01/5/2024 07:45

Some big hitter traders / investors
Have been caught out here
In deep
Turner pope in the mix
What could go wrong ..

[multibagger] 01/5/2024 07:34

Good morning porky9 and all :)

Many thanks for a very thorough and considered reply with your perspectives- much appreciated ! I have taken a small position relative to some of the TR1 big hitters we have been hearing of late.

I have been doing some digging and asking around: the York scientific community is a small one ! You are right that the previous Board was profligate with Other People's Money. The failing expensive BoD was ejected in Aug 2023 and funding secured at deep discount - the two are interconnected I was told.

I was very surprised to learn that neither Prof.Dr. Arron Tolley nor Prof.Dr. David Bunka had a partial cash exit at the time of the IPO as is the norm for founders - they have "lost £ millions" rather than actually made money. They have not enriched themselves, but sadly have been victims of the shenanigans/poor advice of the City folk it would appear (from what I gather). It looks like they went from each controlling 50% of the pre-IPO business to their current equity holdings in low single figures at the current share price - I estimate their personal losses from the current situation to be in the £tens of millions each. Rumour has it that one of the founders challenged the post IPO BoD about profligate spending and was "pushed out".

From a scientific and business process, APTA can only initiate work when their customers give them the "target of interest" sample to develop an affinity ligand for. Sometimes the customers themselves are unable to provide the sample it would appear or delays occur. So it would follow that work and contract revenues are lumpy and can convey the impression of a business that is sitting around for orders. Not quite from the stream of news that is being put out and Investor presentations.

I am intrigued and my appetite has been whetted - I shall try and learn more in the next few weeks but my gut instinct is that the market is punishing APTA for legacy issues that the current BoD had little to do with. I have a background in science so some of their technical briefings are more understandable to me. A single deal can be £££ transformational and their affinity ligand portfolio/suite seems to be very IP rich and I have been doing Patent searches and love what I see.

I am a contrarian and an outlier in many ways and invest accordingly and it has worked for me over the last 3 decades or so...so I have cautiously dipped my toe :)

Good luck all !

[porky9] 01/5/2024 05:05

@Multibagger

Hey good luck to you, IMO it’s a total punt. This is my brief precis but its only MY opinion and you need to do your own research. If you are going to punt, go for red or black at the casino the odds are better IMO.

From my own research and own perspective, this is my two pennies worth:-

I consider that historically, it had EXTREMELY expensive directors living a champagne lifestyle sucking the financial life blood out of the business. I always think that once they get used to that level of cash squander and extravagant lifestyles it’s a hard habit to break and often revert back to type moment there are any signs of cash improving but nonetheless…

Having practically busted the business they agreed massive pay cuts, a board restructure, staff reduction program and a real focus on getting costs under control.

After the restructure July 23 they had a nice chunk of capital raised (£3.6M before costs) to turn the business around and a revised business plan to take the business forward. This came about because its £4m Revenue to the FY end June 22 had fallen to £1.75m in its FY end to June 23.

They pledged to get their obscene level of spending down from £6.4m to £3.5m a year see RNS 31/7/23 on strategy and moreover work to deliver £3m of sales (Had this amazing pipeline of contracts) with a view to BE the following year with £6m of sales.

IMO, they talk a real good talk about big deals, how amazing the potential is but for whatever reason what is perceived as a secured order in the pipeline isn’t translating to actual cash in the bank. I can’t put my finger on it as I’m not close enough to the company, but it looks like its an issue to do with delivery of products by clients to them to work on before they actually get paid. Maybe someone here can comment further?

Anyhow, roll on to its H1 results to 31st December 23 confirmed in March we find that its Revenues had tanked even further now to £300k (H1 in the 23 FY was £1m) less than my local subway sandwich bar and its loss was £1.8m and it had £1.8m of cash left from the placing. The delivery was shocking IMO but there were at least signs spending had come down.

So my perception is that they talk a bloody good talk about how great this tech is but the financials indicate the contrary that clients are not taking up the tech, in fact worse they are not continuing with them for what ever reason as revenues continue to decline but there is yet more talk of great potential deals (Jam tomorrow) but so far they are not delivering on any of it.

Not sure when they will release the Full FY to 30/6/24 figures but based on the current cash burn unless a major deal lands imminently of at least £3m to £5m and further that’s fully paid up now as cash in the bank, despite BOD pledges that they don’t want to be raising further cash at discount, I cant see how it can be avoided, their current cash runway only sees them into the next FY i.e. into July 24 so they have only a few weeks cash runway left to pull a rabbit out the hat. Personally, I think a top up raise at .50 or less will be on the cards any moment if they can secure it.

Hence, my call that this is now a pure speculative binary play: either the cash lands from a signed deal in time or SH will have to dig deep again to support a further discounted placing to give them more time to deliver. That’s how I see it anyhow.

So, lets see, there are some speculating that like this play. For me having seen so so many AIM directors talking big and delivering nothing, I want to see some actual proof of delivery but each to their own. It’s certainly not a play for widows or orphans that’s for sure.

Good luck

[multibagger] 30/4/2024 16:16

Hi porky9,

I am new to this share so don't know much about its past other than it has had a torrid time since listing share price trajectory wise.

The technology looks superb and from the Investor Presentations there seems to be 6 or so months worth of cash at a burn of £300k per month if there are no new deals bringing revenue in. At this very low SP, I think that the upside far outweighs the downside risks.

For Aptamer Group, a company of less than £3m market cap to be filing for joint Patent Applications with Unilever (personal care division revenues alone circa $23 Billion annually) tells me that there is a lot more than meets the eye.

Each to his own and I firmly believe that "Fortuna adjuaces iuvat" !

Good luck all !

[porky9] 28/4/2024 11:33

Binary outcome:

Either a fully paid up substantial order lands within the next 6 weeks of at least £5m OR they raise the cash via a further placing at best price to ensure sufficient cash runway to meet the objectives,

I think there is a genuine desire from the BOD to try and avoid a further placing but realistically I don’t see it as being possible. Even if they confirmed a mega licensing deal signed on Monday there would be slim chance of a cash payment landing in time for the continued operations.

What has screwed this is the dire level of actual invoiced and collected cash in H1 and the continued loss of existing contracts. To recover from that is going to take time.