Advanced Oncotherapy Share Discussion Threads

[pyglet] 07/7/2016 18:53

£50k from a NED.......nice!

[daijavu] 07/7/2016 16:10

One clue. The information is on the AVO website.

[daijavu] 07/7/2016 16:09

ydderF.

I can see that this discussion is likely to go around in circles. I am not a politician or your personal researcher/lackey.

Do your own research.

[ydderf] 07/7/2016 13:57

daijavu Please can you show your source for this statement? I don't think a working prototype was produced by ADAM before AVO got involved, I'm sure you will be able to correct me if i'm wrong.

Also, please correct me if I'm wrong, but the untested, unbuilt, unapproved machine could not be installed in the unbuilt Harley Street premises before it was shown to be safe and able to treat patients. I don't think it would be installed in Harley Street "and ready for submission for regulatory approval". This is not how its done. I think you will find the regulatory process involves much submission of data and papers for exhaustive review - and thank goodness for that, I am sure you would not like your loved ones treated by equipment that was not thoroughly approved and licenced. Could this be why the NHS is using Varian equipment in their proton therapy centres?

[daijavu] 07/7/2016 13:31

Igbert. I share your doubts on that one. I couldn't do it and I suspect that many organisations couldn't do it either. However, Howard de Walden seems a fairly experienced operation. If they have their plans in place and the right people lined up, they might do it.

Once the building is ready the machine can be istalled. The component parts of the LIGHT machine are each roughly the size of a medium sized dining table so, according to AVO, they are small enough to be carried into the building through the front door and down the stairs by four or five strong men. Alternatively, there might be little problem taking them in the back way on trollies and up in the lifts The entire machine is modular and designed to be taken apart for easy maintenance and put back together.

[daijavu] 07/7/2016 12:16

ydderF.
The first prototype was built and tested in Switzerland by ADAM prior to AVO taking the project on board. The fully testable clinically ready version is in the process of being assembled and tested and should be complete by the end of this year. All the component parts have already been tested prior to the assembly of the complete machine and have met the necessary criteria for power output. Provided the Harley Street is ready to receive it, it should be installed in Harley Street and ready for submission for regulatory approval by the beginning of 2017. Once regulatory approval is received, AVO plans to treat the first patient in Harley street towards the end of 2017.

I believe that the Harley Street operation will be used as a showcase to attract futher orders.

[ydderf] 07/7/2016 11:13

daijavu, thank you for the clarification. Do you know how when a fully testable prototype is going to be available for testing and the results submitted to the regulatory bodies for approval? As I understand it, the steps are 1) Complete the prototype, 2) test the prototype (does it produce north of 150 MeV for example?), 3) submit the test data to the regulatory bodies for approval 4) if approved, build the machine and take orders.

I know it can take a long time to get certain approvals, but you may be more expert than I about this. I wouldn't have thought it possible to build a prototype and then make a machine and treat people without some regulatory approval, but correct me if I'm wrong

[daijavu] 07/7/2016 10:54

ydderF

You are assuming everything starting from scratch which it isn't.

AVO already have a network of manufacturers of the components. They are listed in the investors' presentation.

[ydderf] 07/7/2016 10:36

The sequence of events you describe in your third paragraph could take 3-5 years, i.e. 2019-2022 surely?

[twirl] 07/7/2016 08:13

I agree Glibgibon but I may be wrong and satisfactory information is already availaable.

Its not unusual for planning approval to be conditional. So Walden could be converting at risk convinced that the sheilding will meet the planning conditions.

By the end of 2016 there will probably be information on emissions once testing is completed . I doubt that Walden will spend much prior to confirmation that LIGHT works.

The scenario I hope for is that LIGHT is tested successfully by the end of 2016 and a prototype can be observed by clinician clients leading to orders. This should improve the share price to enable the Metric contract to be fulfilled,Harley St converted and manufacturing facility to be created with Thales.

All depends on LIGHT

[glibgibon] 07/7/2016 02:01

I'm assuming they can't verify how much shielding is required until all the modules are tested, put together and tested as a finished unit. It would only be at that point that they could get an accurate reading of how much radiation is being produced and the necessary shielding required.

[daijavu] 06/7/2016 17:31

Igbert. I see your point but I think you are asking questions that only AVO can answer. Have you thought of asking them? It's better you do it because you know the questions you want answered better than anyone else.

If you do ask AVO, would you share their responses with us, please?

[igbertsponk] 06/7/2016 15:36

If the shielding is that easy, one would have thought that they'd have been able to detail how they intend to do it in the planning application. They haven't, it's outstanding.
I can't see how any planning officer is going to nail his testes to a planning report that doesn't have this properly covered off.

[waterloo01] 06/7/2016 15:31

Cheers, I'll look in again and consider once they get planning.

[daijavu] 06/7/2016 15:27

waterll01. All I can suggest is that you compare the timetable for Harley Street with that of the much more substantial and more complex UCLH cyclotron installation that is planned for completion in 2018

[waterloo01] 06/7/2016 15:08

daijavu, don't disagree with any of that, I just don't see, even if they get planning, that this will be anywhere near opening before 2018, and that has consequences for AVO.

[gerhart] 06/7/2016 15:06

Thanks Twirl and Daijavu for all that detail. Don't suppose either of you can do anything about the share price Looks like more than the, common, post-consolidation drop.

[daijavu] 06/7/2016 14:49

In addition to what twirl has stated, AVO already has two contracts with Sinophi for hospitals in China.

ADAM produced a prototype prior to the final version of the LIGHT machine that is being assembled and tested for use in Harley Street. At the beginning of the project AVO issued a schedule setting out the timescale for the production and installation of the first LIGHT machine for Harley Street. They have stuck to the timetable for the completion of each stage on the schedule and there has been no indication of any delays or setbacks at any point.

Howard de Walden's who own much of Marylebone as well as most of Harley Street and have done for centuries, appear to be well used to adapting their buildings in Harley Street for medical use. They say on their website that they have a long term plan to develop Harley Street as a major medical hub of international standing and state that they have sought out high quality medical providers to enhance the status of Harley Street. They say that AVO fits into that plan.

They have submitted a detailed and comprehensive planning application and, as far as I can see, cover just about every conceivable issue in the application. The application and accompanying documents can be read on the City of Westminster website. They have been advised that a decision is likely to be forthcoming around the middle of August.

Unlike cyclotrons, the LIGHT machine is designed so that there is little or no leakage of radiation outside the track of the beam intended for medical use. That means that less shielding is necessary than for cyclotrons. The very substantial shielding that cyclotrons require helps explain the substantial building works and high costs associated with installing a cyclotron.

I think it likely that AVO might have discussed the issues with Howard de Waldon and they would have jointly agreed a timetable for the building work and installation at the very beginning of the project. As far as I am aware, the only thing to have changed is the plan to create more treatment rooms than initially intended. That appears to have delayed the submission of the planning application.

All the facts I have outlined can be read, either on the AVO website, the Howard de Waldon website or the City of Westminster Planning Department website.
The suppositions, such as whether AVO and Howard de Waldon talked through everything, are all mine.

[twirl] 06/7/2016 12:12

I attended the AGM and the following are points worth reporting.

1 Development of LIGHT remains as planned. 5 CCL delivered and 6 soon to be delivered. Each CCL is more complex than I thought including around 1000 copper plates. There will be an update in Q4.
2 There are Memoranda of Understanding for around 30 treatment rooms which seems a great deal more than previously advised. Approx 8 in N America, 15 in Europe and 6 in SE Asia. Intention for LIGHT machine for Pebble Mill, Birmingham to be operated by Circle.
3 Metric undertook extensive due diligence including engaging their own technical experts. They were selected from 3 financiers keen to lend to AVO.
4 Thales intend to reduce production time from 18 months to 12 months.
5 Apart from Harley St AVOwill not be involved with providing care/treatment.
6 Brexit has no effect on regulatory issues and once development concluded fall in value of sterling will be poitive as sales are in $

[twirl] 06/7/2016 12:08

Waterloo001>> thanks
kate saint>> most of the matters you raise are covered in the various rns. Obviously there is no prototype as 2 years ago their plan forecast testing would not be complete until the end of 2016.

[kate saint] 06/7/2016 10:05

twirl, I know you are a committed supporter of AVO, but in the interests of objectivity, can you demonstrate that value of any actual orders (i.e. not letters of intent and other pseudo-orders) for the LIGHT product. As you will appreciate for there to be an order there needs to be an actual definable object to order, with a specification (otherwise how would you know you were getting what you ordered)?

We are now well into 2016 where are the orders? It is surprising that there has been so little interest in this 'product' after so many years. A little alarming when the market cap is where it is and a substantial amount of the opportunistic placing money seems to have been spent on huge boardroom costs, the key directors seem to have been there from when it was Care Capital, so ostensibly making no input into the LIGHT project, though paying themselves as if that were the case

Isn't it true that nobody has seen a completed machine, and though it has been in development for some time, and the production date keeps slipping, there has yet to be a completed prototype proving an effective MeV output?

We are now well into 2016, so where is the specification of a tested, approved and deliverable machine - difficult to imagine it would be possible to order one without being defining the 'thing' being ordered?

If there were a prototype, with a useful MeV output it would still need to be tested to be granted regulatory approval before it could be used for treatment - do you know how long that would take? If you do, advise us all, if you do not, it would be useful to find out before you make the assertions you have been making about delivery estimates questioned by "Waterloo1" above

"clothes""no" "emperor" and "has" put the words into a sentence......