Aberdeen Asset Management Share Discussion Threads

[jamielein] 04/12/2013 10:08

Ex-dividend 10p today

[steeplejack] 04/12/2013 09:24

Oops,I blame you for drawing attention to the stocks relative strength!

[its the oxman] 03/12/2013 19:45

Surprisingly strong today ending up slightly with Dow down well over 100 pts.

[its the oxman] 25/11/2013 13:01

Chart getting ready for next leg up through 500p.

[marksp2011] 19/11/2013 18:29

Topvest

Not as good an entry point as 5k @ 178 but not everything van be as good as LDC

[its the oxman] 18/11/2013 21:55

Consolidation just above 500p is my bet for now. But bigger gains to come so well worth holding onto for next few years as gains flow through. Just wish I had bought a bigger holding.

[topvest] 18/11/2013 20:14

Yes, you do get the feeling that they are managing expectations here. Take the pain now and then deliver slightly more. Some risk of further disappointment, but this is a good entry point here I think.

[topvest] 18/11/2013 20:06

Oh and great results as well + massive hike in the dividend.

[topvest] 18/11/2013 20:05

Great news today. I thought the deal had fallen through as the cash bidder was on the front foot. This really accelerates their growth. Very pleased to be in this quality asset.

[philo124] 18/11/2013 19:09

Thanks a lot MIATA, indebted to you, as always.

[miata] 18/11/2013 11:55

Credit Suisse.

The deal price is £550m consideration in shares and a potential further £100m performance related 5yr earn-out payment of up to £100m dependent on growth delivered by the strategic relationship with Lloyds. The AuM of SWIP is around £136bn which equates to a consideration to AUM of 0.4% or 0.5% including the additional £100m. The annualised revenue of the SWIP business is around £234m and it is expected that the marginal operating profit margin will be around 55%, we hence calculate that the deal should be around 12% earnings accretive. The deal is expected to close in Q114 and Lloyds will not be able to sell their c10% stake in Aberdeen for 12 months and will have to retail two-thirds of their stake for at least 2 years.

FY13 underlying PBT c3% beat on CSe, with higher revenues of £1,079m vs CSe £1,055m; both management and performance fees were ahead of our estimates.
■ AuM of £200.4bn was slightly weaker than CSe £204.8bn due to higher outflows; in 4Q13, net outflows were £3.6bn vs CSe £1.3bn outflows driven mainly by higher than expected outflows from fixed-income, money markets and Asia Pacfic equities, although GEM equities was better. The group notes that the momentum of flows has been biased towards higher margin pooled funds, which are now 49% of total AuM.

[miata] 18/11/2013 11:54

UBS


The deal is £560m in shares and up to £100m in deferred cash. This is higher than the £500m speculated in the press, but the £100m cash is dependent on future growth 5 years out rather than asset retention and SWIP profitability is better than expected. We therefore carry out our analysis on the £560m upfront; as we believe that the economics would probably look even better should SWIP actually see "growth delivered by the strategic relationship with Lloyds in the Investment Solutions business".

We have updated our merger model. Aberdeen is paying headline 8.4x P/E for SWIP, but taking into consideration the significant cost cutting opportunities (incremental assets would come on at 55% operating margin, vs ~21% currently), we estimate that they are paying 5.3x P/E (post restructuring costs) or a 19%
ROIC: we estimate 10.6% EPS accretion in FY15 (management guide the deal to be
significantly accretive). Previous in-market deals such as these (e.g Henderson /Gartmore) have generally achieved operating margins in excess of 50%. We are
assuming 85% retention of the captive assets (as they sign a "long-term contract to manage Lloyds insurance funds") and 75% for the third party managed money.

The deal gives Aberdeen diversification away from GEM in the long term. We think this helps Aberdeen become a global player and the diversification is why the likes of Schroders trade at a premium to peers. The SWIP deal means Aberdeen gains exposure to UK/European equities (currently the best-selling products in Europe) and better exposure to UK investors (though a Lloyds distribution deal).

Aberdeen trades at 11.2x CY14E EV/NOPAT, a 14% discount to peers. Aberdeen
continues to highlight its ability to return surplus capital to shareholders over time. This could take form in the way of ~£300m in buybacks which would deliver another 6% EPS accretion.

[miata] 18/11/2013 11:49

Aberdeen Asset Management has bought fund manager Scottish Widows Investment Partnership from Lloyds Banking Group in a £650m deal as part of a "strategic partnership" with the lender.

The fund manager is acquiring SWIP via the issue of 131.8m new shares to the state-backed bank worth £550m at 420p a share, giving it a 9.9pc stake in Aberdeen.

Aberdeen will also pay up to £100m to Lloyds depending on growth delivered by the "strategic relationship".

SWIP will add around £136bn of assets under management with annualised revenues of around £234m to the group.

Aberdeen is acquiring SWIP's related private equity and infrastructure fund management businesses as well as its Investment Solutions division which designs, develops and manages of investments for Lloyds' wealth clients.

Martin Gilbert, chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, said: "The formation of a strategic relationship with Lloyds Banking Group, which includes the acquisition of Scottish Widows Investment Partnership ... is an important step in cementing Aberdeen's position as one of the world's leading investment groups."

The strategic relationship will operate across Lloyds' Wealth, Insurance, Commercial Banking and Retail businesses.
The FTSE 100 fund manager confirmed last month that it had made an approach to Lloyds about buying the fund management business. The fund manager at the same time disclosed that the talks also extended to setting up a so-called "strategic partnership" with the lender.

Shares in the FTSE 100 group jumped almost 6pc on the day Aberdeen confirmed it was in talks with Lloyds, but came under pressure on concerns that Macquarie would trump the deal with a competing cash bid.
Aberdeen has a large emerging markets business and a takeover of SWIP will boost its exposure to UK equities. The disposal will also help Lloyds meet stricter capital requirements.

Alongside the acquistion, Aberdeen released full-year results, showing a 44pc rise in pre-tax profits to 390.3m.

[miata] 18/11/2013 11:45

18-Nov-13 Aberdeen Asset... ADN RBC Capital Markets Outperform 484.1 426.8 - -
18-Nov-13 Aberdeen Asset... ADN Barclays Capital Overweight 484.1 426.8 500 500
18-Nov-13 Aberdeen Asset... ADN Espirito Santo Execution Noble Buy 484.1 426.8 461 461
18-Nov-13 Aberdeen Asset... ADN Numis Buy 484.1 426.8 - -
18-Nov-13 Aberdeen Asset... ADN Berenberg Buy 484.1 426.8 500 500

[pearlfisher] 18/11/2013 09:41

I am overweight ADN and added significantly to my position on the pull back back to the 360-380 range. I may reduce slightly at 500 but I plan to remain overweight as I think the real growth in ADN's price is going to come from recovery of certain asian markets. Can't predict when this will come but in the meantime I am content to bank the dividend.

[m1das_touch] 18/11/2013 09:04

Bought into these back in August at 365p - just thought they looked oversold technically and good value fundamentally.

Very happy with today's results and acquisition news - tempted to take some profits, but there again there's that 39% increase in the dividend and seemingly great long-term prospects as Europe's biggest listed fund manager.

[gorse] 18/11/2013 09:01

You can tell what a very small fraction of ADVFN users are in this stock by the quietness of this board on such a morning .... presume most people are following small miners, Chinese or other dodgy fly-by-night companies.

[felix99] 18/11/2013 08:33

worth a fiver all day long imho.

Those results were well ahead of forecasts even before the deal. You now have on top scale/economies of scale to reap, range of funds across all sectors not just emerging markets and to boot a Lloyds network of millions of customers to market too as well.

Can't write a better script imho

[gorse] 18/11/2013 08:14

Having suffered one or two blows last week from RSA and VLX, I'm glad to have these doing the business.

[broadwood] 18/11/2013 08:10

Wow. Up 12% on equity deal thought cheaper than expected.

[steeplejack] 18/11/2013 07:45

450p is my day's target but I'd settle for higher!

[broadwood] 18/11/2013 07:44

Called up 3-4% at the open.

[richtea1701] 18/11/2013 07:12

Close of play score today?

[calvin1947] 17/11/2013 18:06

Announcement Monday on the deal to takeover Scottish Widows from Lloyds TSB

Good news for the ADN Shareholders as NO cash call on the shareholders, could be well received by the market on Monday.
By Ben Martin

5:46PM GMT 17 Nov 2013



CommentsComments





Aberdeen Asset Management has seen off a rival bid from Australian group Macquarie to secure the acquisition of fund manager Scottish Widows Investment Partnership from Lloyds Banking Group.


A deal for SWIP, which would see state-backed Lloyds take a stake of approximately 10pc in Aberdeen, could be announced as soon as tomorrow.


The transaction is thought to be valued in the region of £500m, based on Aberdeen's market value at the end of last week. The FTSE 100 fund manager is understood to have been competing with Macquarie to take over SWIP.


Aberdeen confirmed last month that it had made an approach to Lloyds about buying the fund management business, and said it would pay for the deal by issuing new shares to the bank as well as performance-related deferred cash payments. The fund manager, led by chief executive Martin Gilbert, at the same time disclosed that the Lloyds talks also extended to setting up a so-called "strategic partnership" with the lender.


That relationship could see the FTSE 100 asset management firm take advantage of Lloyds' branch network to sell its funds.



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Investors in Aberdeen have been enthused by the prospect of the SWIP acquisition, which would boost the fund management group's assets to around £350bn and in turn make it Europe's largest listed fund manager.

Shares in the FTSE 100 group jumped almost 6pc on the day Aberdeen confirmed it was in talks with Lloyds, but have since come under pressure on concerns that Macquarie would trump the deal with a competing cash bid.

Aberdeen has said that a deal for SWIP would be "materially earnings-per-share enhancing" and rating agency Fitch has described the potential acquisition as "transformational" for the listed Scottish fund manager.

Aberdeen has a large emerging markets business and a takeover of SWIP would boost its exposure to UK equities.

Meanwhile, the disposal would help Lloyds Banking Group to meet stricter capital requirements.