Chamberlin Share Discussion Threads

[kinwah] 08/5/2024 15:02

On a positive note, in the foundry industry news about financial problems very often leads to a sharp rise in orders and call-offs from ongoing contracts as customers want to ensure they have enough stock to cover any possible hiccup in supply. Every cloud etc.

[kinwah] 08/5/2024 14:05

Jellypbean, the 8-week adjournment is probably because CMH is quoted with until now supportive shareholders so it is not impossible that funds could be raised to bolster the balance sheet and pay off creditors. The court has to allow reasonable attempts to avoid winding-up. The issue is that after selling Petrel and the Chuckery freehold, there is nothing else left to sell that would bring funds into the company.

MRF, a pre-pack is where a business (without all the debts and liabilities) is sold immediately on the appointment of administrators to an already lined up buyer. I think that is very unlikely here. In this industry when a company fails the competitors pick up the useful bits such as the contracts and moulds for current work and leave the administrator to sort out the remaining mess. The UK with its high energy costs and strict environmental legislation is not where you'd choose to operate an iron foundry these days.

[rivaldo] 08/5/2024 08:58

So not dead yet, with CMH having until 2 July's adjourned Court hearing to sort matters out.

Amazing that CMH are in this position despite all the insider/director buying and from supposedly well-informed investors. Nothing is guaranteed in stock market investing.

Let's hope CMH come out the other side from this.

[jellypbean] 07/5/2024 22:08

Anyone willing to speculate as to what might be read into the granting of an 8 week adjournment to the hearing?

[my retirement fund] 07/5/2024 17:00

That's a point. I agree, it doesn't have to be a prepack. There may be a competitor who has existing capacity to take on the existing wip and doesn't care to preserve a name. However, for many, they will need the key personnel and existing shopfloor. For them, a prepack could deal with every headache, from debtors to employment contracts, from pensions to leases. Perhaps you are confused, by prepack I did not imply that could be for the existing board or its shareholders. Rather a solution for the administrators to resolve some value.

[kinwah] 07/5/2024 15:45

MRF if I'd responded, I'd have argued with you. Why would there be a pre-pack of the business? In the event of administration, competitors would buy the moulds, contracts and work in progress. Everything else would be left behind. Historically foundries haven't changed hands except for very nominal amounts just to be closed shortly afterwards. Sad that all that history looks as if it is coming to an end.

[my retirement fund] 07/5/2024 14:49

As I wrote in my post 1022 and 1027, this should come as no surprise. Sadly, as evidenced by the lack of sensible responses to my informative posts, I can only conclude there will be a number of private investors who have perhaps deservedly lost some significant sums of money. To them, I say, reap what you sow !!

[kinwah] 07/5/2024 12:50

My guess is orders have dried up over the last month. Relying on invoice discounting when sales are slumping is a disaster waiting to happen.

[tomboyb] 07/5/2024 11:54

Does not look good does it? -

[jaknife] 07/5/2024 11:53

^^ Suspended "pending clarification of the Company's financial position".

[tomboyb] 07/5/2024 11:52

Oh dear -

Is that the end of CMH - ?

[kneecaps2] 07/5/2024 11:52

No sunshine today!

[sunshine today] 02/5/2024 13:06

Umm, thats just the type of comment one hears at these tiny companies, when attending the AGM.

It’s always the same.

Often ( but not always )it's a buy signal.

[red army] 02/5/2024 12:58

These idiots in charge could not run a bath let alone a company. Market confidence being reflected in lack of competency.

[sunshine today] 21/4/2024 14:42

Lease liabilities are not a worry , they just show whats due over the years prior to an end, or extension of the lease.

The invoice facility will have been reduced substantially with the cash received.

Again on a monthly basis it’s not an issue.

[sunshine today] 21/4/2024 14:01

This mob keep buying, i can well understand why.

The company is in a far better position than 4 months ago, with growth within sight.

[sunshine today] 21/4/2024 13:52

The proceeds of the Disposal are expected to both reduce the Group's liabilities by approximately £2.6 million and contribute an exceptional profit of no less than £2.0 million, in FY24.

[sunshine today] 21/4/2024 13:44

Arthur_Lame_Stocks21 Apr '24 - 13:33 - 1041 of 1042

jellybean

You're absolutely correct, but I can guarantee you your post is going to be buried under a tidal wave of fabricated figures and irrelevant pseudo similes

NO : Just facts in print from the report and accounts and various RNS news items.

[sunshine today] 21/4/2024 13:38

jellypbean.


Umm, but you have kept some , so clearly you see the stock going up at some stage, ( like myself ).


Next up debt.

As previously announced, balance sheet debt following the sale of Petrel Ltd has greatly improved and the Company remains focused on paying off the remainder of its legacy debt within the next 12-month period (excluding the remaining pension deficit and HSBC invoice finance facility).


///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

The pension debt is a non issue, its tiny and may even turn into a surplus over the next 4 years.

The HSBC invoice facility has been running fine for the last 6 years.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 21/4/2024 13:33

jellybean

You're absolutely correct, but I can guarantee you your post is going to be buried under a tidal wave of fabricated figures and irrelevant pseudo similes.

[jellypbean] 21/4/2024 10:25

Look Sunshine, I hope it does as I still hold some shares. However because I've sold some recently I'll still be out of pocket until it reaches nearky 5p a share.

They have sold Petrel, which was making 0.5M+ p.a. profit. The debt interest is not going to fall nearly as much as you seem to have calculated (most of it is from lease liabilities and invoice financing).

So there is a fair bit of ground to make up before they make a decent profit, and very little leeway to the downside before they run out of cash again if anything goes wrong.

The Q3 update is problematic as there were no numbers provided, and numbers matter when things are so close to the wire.

[sunshine today] 20/4/2024 14:52

Lord Lee : uk”s first ISA Millionaire


Lord Lee’s largest holding, Treatt, the food chemicals company, typifies this long-term approach. “This has been a 25-bagger for me,” he said.

“I first bought shares in 1999 for around 30p and have topped up my position 30 times since. It is now around 40pc of my portfolio. It fits my investment approach perfectly: I buy established, profitable, small, conservatively managed companies with a large family holding.”

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

When CMH shows a profit , ( as i personally believe it will in 24 - 25,)I dear say Lord Lee, may run his slide rule over the company.

[sunshine today] 19/4/2024 13:15

Not for me it’s not, it’s got exactly the criteria to produce super returns.

£2M market cap

The market looks up and out, not in the rear view mirror.

[my retirement fund] 19/4/2024 13:08

Did you not read the update, I stated it was high-risk months ago! You can see the trajectory didn't change, it's too late now!

[sunshine today] 19/4/2024 12:38

Petrel sold , that company had low revenues in any event of £3.6M, these will now disappear from the total Chamberlin revenues

Target revenues of the group, previous to the sale, were £45M - £50M : Source:: last years placing RNS :

Deduct £5M of revenues for lost growth from Petrel = Min £40M of target revenues going forward

Market cap C £2M.

Also of note is the companies view that it will not take a huge amount of new investment in the foundries to hit those revenues.( they have cash that will be allocated for this , from the sale of Petrel) Source : Sale RNS use of funds.


Net margins of 10% would produce a profit double todays market cap

Poor below average margins of 5% would = £2M profit to equal today’s market cap.

For those prepared to look out, this company is dirt cheap, in my personal view, more so, since the directors told shareholders that within ten weeks of today profitability will be more robust : Source : April trading update