Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 07/4/2019 19:43

A major BUY tip in this week's IC:



NAV estimates (Numis?) for 2019, '20, '21 are 272p, 331p 409p.

Conclusion: the uranium price rally appears to have stalled ahead of what Numis expects will be a “significant spike in long-term contracting” in the US, once the DoC review concludes this month. Should that push the spot price towards Cameco’s long-term price forecast, Yellow Cake’s NAV rises to 277p, which in turn could provide the momentum for Yellow Cake to buy another $100m of uranium. Chief executive Andre Liebenberg tells us investor demand is there should this happen, suggesting plenty of other commodity watchers share our view. Buy.

[the bull] 29/3/2019 00:41

This is the entry point from the first moneyweek article I read last year, may nibble soon

[ifthecapfits] 20/3/2019 11:29

Not taken a position yet - but on the watch list.

[andyforster1] 06/3/2019 09:13

Anybody listen to the Kazatomprom call today ???

[jonwig] 10/2/2019 06:04

IC, Friday -

Mr Liebenberg [CEO] wants to exercise an annual option to buy up to $100m-worth of uranium from the Kazakh miner.

That would require a placing equivalent to 42 per cent of Yellow Cake’s existing market capitalisation, although Mr Liebenberg says that the demand is there. “If we were trading at a 10 per cent premium to NAV, we could do that tomorrow,” he told Investors Chronicle, citing feedback from recent meetings with dozens of existing and prospective investors. “We’ve got a lot of people keen to play.”
IC view: "We remain buyers at 239p."

[andyforster1] 05/2/2019 10:48

YCA is a new entry into the URA underlying index, the accumulation continues until the required amount is obtained (the amount I do not know) enjoy the re-rate folks.

[jonwig] 01/2/2019 11:16

Interesting, Livewire. Thanks!
Here's detail:

[livewireplus] 01/2/2019 10:46

AURA have recently signed a binding off-take agreement which obtains an average price of over $44 / lb albeit over 7 years - so let us see if we get a gentle but consistent rise in YCA share price if a further rise in Cake prices does indeed follow-on ...

[jonwig] 16/1/2019 08:59

JAF - sorry, my post was a bit garbled. Yes, at the moment it's hard to explain the premium at GCL. If the U price moves a lot, miners will be geared to that, and a premium justified.

[jaf111] 16/1/2019 08:16

yes indeed.....but it seems to me that either GCL is very overvalued or YCA very undervalued.....so if i wanted to further increase my U exposure I would certainly go for YCA over GCL

[jonwig] 16/1/2019 08:12

JAF - that's the difference between holding a pile of metal and mining it. With the latter, costs can be higher than revenue. Plus the management fees.

[jaf111] 16/1/2019 08:07

Pretty satisfactory update.

Strange price disparity between Yellowcake and Geiger Counter

GCL - NAV 18.5p - share price 20.5p

YCA - NAV 253p - share price 222p.........

[jonwig] 16/1/2019 07:07

Quarterly update:



Stand-out number is NAV of 253p (so 12.6% disc.). Discount control measures suggested.

[jonwig] 11/1/2019 16:32

That's great news - if only companies would always do this!

Halifax, I can't say, but if you get no useful response, raise an official complaint with them and be prepared to go to the Ombudsman. They won't like that and might be spurred into action.

[0x3f] 11/1/2019 16:24

Hi Jonwig, I got a super quick response from Bacchus and them from YellowCake who have followed it up with Halifax - I'll wait and see what Helifax* do now. Cheers, 0x3F.

* Noticed the typo, then thought I'd leave it in.

[bmcb5] 11/1/2019 14:46

#uranium seems to be capped at $29/lb for now, why? 1 It appears Cameco currently is resisting moving their bid above the theoretical all-in for McArthur River. 2 Without more of a move higher in mid/long term, the carry trade bid is around $25-26/lb for now (1/3)

[0x3f] 11/1/2019 14:28

Great, thanks for that.

[jonwig] 11/1/2019 14:21

Possibly it doesn't have to have a KID as it's Jersey-incorporated. Or possibly Halifax are taking the easy route. I'm sure I bought mine without being provided with one (Interactive Investor).

You could try contacting their advisors (who essentially run the company), but even then Halifax may not budge: [e-mail]

[0x3f] 11/1/2019 13:57

I'm having trouble buying these via Halifax Sharedealing. They're not trading them as they have no KID. I queried this and was told it was being classed as a PRIIP. Anyone else having problems with other brokers?

Their website doesn't have email contact details for me to query it with them, which I consider to be poor.

[jonwig] 11/1/2019 10:35

The bull case, dated 20/12:

[jonwig] 07/1/2019 08:17

BKY - no known reason, but a seller has been cleared.

[jonwig] 05/1/2019 07:12

Yes, BKY was a surprise. I got the impression a few days ago that permits would be denied, and of course that could still be the case, and the last two days just unfounded rumour. Anyway, I decided not to chase it.

[bmcb5] 04/1/2019 11:44

@jonwig big move in BKY today

[jonwig] 03/1/2019 15:22

bmcb5 - great, many thanks!

JAF - that's a factor, I'm sure. But there's also the KZT/USD to consider (KZT has fallen a bit recently).

The purest mining play (KAP) is pretty firm at $14, but the IT, Geiger Counter is weaker, maybe because many miners will still be losing money.

There's an interesting situation with BKY in Spain, where it's allegedly failed to get mining permits. If it does secure them, it would move fast, and it has decent cash.

[jaf111] 03/1/2019 15:06

If nothing else surely this is a solid play on the continued weakness of £ vs US$?