Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[tinman] 04/9/2018 18:00

This is intriguing, may add some of these. I think it fits well with the new 'clean power' ethos prevalent today.

[jonwig] 03/9/2018 06:37

andyj - it does look that way!

A major nuclear accident (low probability, high impact) is the only thing I can imagine. But in a general market crash, even this could be sold off - temporarily.

[andyj] 02/9/2018 12:45

Unless I'm missing something, it's difficult to see what the downside risk is here.

[jonwig] 30/8/2018 19:57

Dav - no, the share price was 252p when they wrote the piece ... I think!

[davr0s] 30/8/2018 19:26

Crikey there sticking their neck - a buy with a whole 4p profit target

[jonwig] 30/8/2018 18:44

IC 'buy at 252p'. Summary:

Broker Berenberg reckons $50-a-pound uranium prices are needed to incentivise new mine supply, which is a necessity if the uranium market is to function smoothly in the long term and one which Yellow Cake is arguably helping to accelerate by taking stock off the market. As we have previously flagged, nuclear is a crucial, but often overlooked part of the low-carbon energy transition. Yellow Cake is a low-risk bet on that future. Buy.

[kristini2] 26/8/2018 10:40

looks a bit overbought so may buy if it drops back a bit

[jonwig] 24/8/2018 06:45

@ kristini - post #61 shows the make-up of URA.

@ bmcb5 - post #76 - good stuff, yes, and shows the range of views on the upside prospects for U.

[bmcb5] 23/8/2018 23:01

Can't argue with that Kristini. Geiger Counter is my largest single holding. I'm a little surprised it hasn't started to move yet.

[kristini2] 23/8/2018 22:15

I bought geiger counter which i think is a fund that invests in the miners, the etf URA i think is linked to the uranium price and on Amex;

Global X Uranium Etf

AMEX:URA


Global X Uranium Etf (URA)
Global X Uranium Etf (URA)

Delayed

Get real time


Follow URA
Name Symbol Mkt Delay 15 Mins Type ISIN Description
Global X Uranium Etf AMEX:URA American Stock Exchange Fund
Change % Chg Cur Bid Offer High Low Open Volume Chg Time RN NRN
-0.09 -0.7% 12.54 12.66 12.53 12.63 131,129 21:40:10
*quotes are delayed by at least 20 minutes

Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE ratio Mkt Cap (m) NMS
Closed-End Fund - Equity 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 N/A

Type Size Price Time Units
9 1 12.58 Closed USD



Pre-Market and After-Hours
Change % Chg Price Bid Offer
0.0%

Recent News
Date Time Source
Headline
16/03/2018 21:00 PRNUS Global X Funds Announces Index Change for Uranium ETF
Set a News Alert for URA
More URA News

[bmcb5] 23/8/2018 21:44

As an example of the great insight you can pick up on twitter, take a look at this extended conversation:

[bmcb5] 23/8/2018 19:56

@kristini, hi. I would expect a correlation of 1, and it feels like the price has got ahead of itself. But looking at the volume today, it seems that institutions want in.
Market pricing in uranium is opaque, and the spot price is only an indicator. I suspect we will run at a premium to spot price for some time, due to expectation of future supply/demand crunch and resultant increases in the underlying price.
How much of a premium, and for how long, is anybody’s guess. I am relaxed about it, as I see it as a multi-year play and we’re only in the very early stages. It may well soften from here, but I’d rather be holding than watching.

[jonwig] 23/8/2018 18:42

@ kristini - is there a pure metal U etf, or are they all miner-holders?

As all the links I've posted recently point out, the spot price today doesn't represent long-term demand which will be through contracts negotiated separately. The spot market is no more than a clearing house for surplus, and when that surplus vanishes?

[kristini2] 23/8/2018 17:12

Jwig, an etf can track the spot price of uranium just like other commodity etf 's for example track gold, copper etc

why is this powering ahead of the commodity, you would expect a correlation of One as mentioned earlier by another poster

[jonwig] 23/8/2018 16:33

@ bmcb5 - yes, thanks, I'd be obliged. Send via a private message if you prefer. (Click on my name and follow the link.)

[bmcb5] 23/8/2018 13:37

There is a group of very knowledgeable people on twitter. Some fantastic insights and links. If you don't already, i'd recommend following a few. AlexMiningGuy was CEO of Paladin until recently, I believe. I'd be happy to post a list of my favs, if it helps. @quakes99 is a great place to start

[jonwig] 23/8/2018 12:33

Thanks - there seem to be some knowledgeable people on that thread!

Cameco could of course borrow ours ... for a small fee.

[bmcb5] 23/8/2018 12:05

Some big trades today. Already the highest volume day.

Looks like Cameco are in the market, wanting to buy. Small volume atm, but another nice bullish event :-)

[jonwig] 22/8/2018 07:14

"Uranium has endured a brutal decade-long bear market exacerbated by numerous calls for an imminent price rise over the last couple of years – and we’re still waiting for that to happen. The early stages of a bull market are often inconspicuous as the market gradually rises despite negative sentiment – it climbs the proverbial wall of worry. Are we starting to climb? The last nine months suggest that we are."

More:

[bmcb5] 21/8/2018 08:33

Cheers Jon. I read (somewhere) that Kazatomprom were planning to launch on AIM. I would have expected FTSE, but there you go. It will get some of my money, I'm sure.

[jonwig] 21/8/2018 07:06

@ bmcb5 - on your para 1, a doubling is my base level assumption, as I've read that the next long-term contracts are likely to span the $50-75 range. (It's in one of the links.)

On para 2, you're probably right. The prospectus has: ... purchase, sell and trade U3O8 in the spot market, through the Kazatomprom Contract and through any other long-term contracts entered into by the Company to generate value for Shareholders; ... [pdf p18]
There's also an option held by URC to purchase from YCA which then makes further purchases from Kazatomprom.

On para 3, Kazatomprom is planning an IPO (likely London) for Q4 2018 provided the spot price makes a share issue attractive. It's one of the lowest cost producers and might be worth looking at as an alternative investment.

[bmcb5] 20/8/2018 20:50

I expect the U price to bounce considerably higher than $50, even if only for a short time. Long term U price needs to be around $50, just to promote enough US-based production to meet their proposed s232 targets.

Pricing will likely split at some point, with a US price, and a global (ex US) price, to facilitate s232, AIUI. But I assume that the YCA stock, being sourced from KAZ, could only be sold at the global price.

It's still early days, with a lot of developments still to play out. I'm looking to buy more on weakness, but ultimately looking to recycle profits into GCL or specific companies

[jonwig] 20/8/2018 20:06

@ cbeadle - because the spot market is illiquid and doesn't reflect future demand relative to reducing supply. Most of the links I've posted recently explain why there's a convincing case for a much higher price level in the future. [EDIT: at least double: $50. So share price here around 400p.] Could be a two-year wait in worst case, though!

[bmcb5] 20/8/2018 20:03

U chart switched to Dec18