Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[bmcb5] 03/1/2019 14:31

Berenberg research note.

[jonwig] 12/12/2018 20:18

Summary of current trends:



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[yupawiese2010] 11/12/2018 08:21

Potential cancellation of Anglesey nuclear power station.

[chuckol] 03/12/2018 15:45

I believe that people on this thread should be very careful. If you express disagreement with jonwig, a frequent poster on this thread, he will institute a search for your IP address. He has been boasting on the WPCT thread that he has discovered that the best poster on that thread posts from a very particular location. How else could he have found out other than by using a nefarious piece of software?

I have been told that this particular piece of kit could also enable him to look up the skirts of female posters. I somehow doubt that because his salient characteristic seems to be his impotence.

[jonwig] 30/11/2018 09:15

A timely reality check:



A lot of interesting comments, but you need to register to see them.

[jonwig] 26/11/2018 09:56

From FT's 'Opening Quote':

RTZ has agreed to sell its controlling stake in the Rössing uranium mine in Namibia to CNUC, the China National Uranium Corporation, for up to $106.5m. That would make CNUC the largest shareholder in Rössing alongside IFIC, the Iranian Foreign Investment Company, and ICSA, the Industrial Corporation of South African. Rossing is world’s longest-running open pit uranium mine and produces around 3 per cent of global supply.

Financial Times mining expert Neil Hume says CNUC has been looking to invest in overseas uranium mines to secure supplies for an expected expansion of nuclear power stations in China. Its current investments include the mothballed Azelik uranium mine in Niger and own a minority stake in Paladin Energy’s Langer Heinrich mine Namibia.

[jonwig] 26/11/2018 07:20

HY results.

Net Asset Value of GBP 2.39 (USD 3.12) per share as at 30 September 2018

Since the end of September 2018, Net Asset Value has increased to GBP 2.49 (USD 3.16) per share as at 31 October 2018



With spare cash of $9.8m they could probably buy a bit more oxide, but fundraising not mentioned, obviously so long as the shares trade at a NAV discount.

[bmcb5] 14/11/2018 10:16

I've rolled the uranium chart to Jan 19, but I've left the December chart as is, because I find it interesting.

From what I recall, a year ago we were regularly seeing the front month price being forced down by traders, into expiry. So it is interesting (at least to me) that the price for December appears to be driven up, into expiry.

Whether it actually means anything is another matter :-)

[yupawiese2010] 08/11/2018 10:10

Proposal to build nuclear plant in Cumbria abandoned.

[jonwig] 08/11/2018 10:06

@ kirk - interesting idea, but will it work in the near term? Reading this, suggests there's a problem:



So they would need to increase production, which wouldn't happen overnight (ie. could take years) as mines need to be expanded or developed, and skilled labour either found or trained. In the meantime, I can envisage their power stations beginning to stockpile from abroad - ie. increasing the price.

[kirk2] 08/11/2018 09:29

the problem with yellow cake as I see it is that if trump passes the 25% use American uranium bill which is nailed on, the value of world uranium will drop, at the moment 97% is imported into the states, a better play will be the American uranium miners who will benefit, and there share prices will go to the moon, any thoughts.

[yupawiese2010] 07/11/2018 18:38

Many thanks to you both.

y

[jonwig] 07/11/2018 16:56

@ Yupa - re fundraising ... I think they will be keen to raise more equity if possible. But this needs to be done at a premium (the mechanics don't really work if existing shares sit at a discount to NAV). if bcmb's estimate is correct (255p) we're not there yet.

#6.2.19 of the prospectus: "‘‘Equity securities’217; to be paid up wholly in cash must be offered to existing Shareholders pro rata to their holdings of ordinary share capital of the Company except that, if a special resolution to disapply pre-emption rights has been passed, the Directors shall have power to allot equity securities for cash other than on a pro rata basis."

[bmcb5] 07/11/2018 12:52

Hi @Yupa

My understanding is that almost all long term supply is provided through bilateral agreements between buyer and seller. Those agreements are not declared to the market.

The spot market has generally been for trading around the edges, with small volumes. The spot price has been very depressed due to KAP policy of selling much of their volume here. There has been no real demand for spot, since the market has been oversupplied. So with KAP pushing large volume to spot, the price collapsed.

But during this time, the vast majority of uranium is passed from producer to buyer, at the long term contract prices. Thus suppliers have been able to keep the lights on purely due to their hedged contract prices. Key here, is that those long term contracts expire in the next few years, so buyers will need to start replacing them, and producers are indicating that prices above $40-50/lb will be required.

Right now, buyers can still take the cheap spot offerings, and kick the can down the road wrt long term contract. As the spot price ticks up, that option goes away too.

As an example, Cameco shutting down McArthur River, and then buying spot uranium to supply their long term contract, shows how broken the market currently is.

[yupawiese2010] 07/11/2018 12:06

In this video posted below, the CEO of Vimy resources who have a large uranium deposit in Western Australia talks about market manipulation, it gets interesting at 1.58 when he claims that there were 5 contracts written in 2017 & none in 2018, (up to July when this video was uploaded ).

CEO Mike Young claims that the spot price is not a true reflection on the contractual price between the producer & the utility which is never reported, when contracts are revealed in the future the contractual price would probably be between 50/60 $ lbs.

1. Is he talking his own book to his own shareholders, in effect saying "hey we have 90 million u to mine worth 50/60$ lb, our project is a lot more valuable than the spot u price might reflect." !!

2 Alternatively, if he is correct that the u contractual price is way higher than the spot price, then the U we have purchased & taken of the market is a lot more valuable than the current $29 per lbs spot price might suggest.



---------------
Jonwig. - Do you envisage YCA raising funds in December?

[jonwig] 07/11/2018 09:34

I'm finding quite a bit in KAP which I'm a bit uneasy about. It's also possible it will be priced at top end and then go higher (due to increased interest in U).

On the other hand, KAZ seems to be pretty well-run, so political worries might not be so important.

[bmcb5] 07/11/2018 09:24

@jon re 132, I'm probably in the same place. It depends on timing too, and general market direction :-)

[jonwig] 07/11/2018 05:26

The KAP IPO document is throwing up some complex issues, one of which (Kazakhstan Law on Transfer Pricing) suggests to me that the spot market is more important to it - via its Swiss trading arm - than other miners.

This means it can sometimes want to manipulate this market, and particularly ahead of its IPO, engineer a higher price. I don't normally subscribe to conspiracy theories, but the uranium spot market has been described as open to manipulation. Tuesday 13th sees conditional dealings begin, so maybe the U spot price will relax next week. Maybe not, as well.

[jonwig] 06/11/2018 14:14

Yes - as mentioned above (#130) YCA will be keen to raise funds. I think I'd subscribe (given the chance!) and postpone on KAP.

[bmcb5] 06/11/2018 14:02

At $29 uranium, I get the NAV to 255p/share

Each $ on U = approx 8p to YCA

[jonwig] 03/11/2018 08:30

A reminder, from the KAP prospectus:

In May 2018, the Company entered into a long-term uranium supply
agreement with Yellow Cake plc and in July 2018, delivered approximately
3,100 tonnes of U3O8 pursuant to such agreement, which represents 25.6%
of the Group’s attributable production of uranium for the year ended
31 December 2017. Furthermore, this agreement contemplates the delivery
by the Company of further uranium shipments in the quantity representing
the aggregate price of up to US$100 million annually, at market related
prices, for at least another nine years after the date of this Prospectus,
subject to and upon completion of subsequent follow-on offerings by
Yellow Cake plc and certain other conditions

[jonwig] 02/11/2018 12:08

Kazatomprom IPO on course.
Company thread, with details and links:

[jonwig] 02/11/2018 08:16

re Greenpeace - I can't find any hints that Greenpeace has softened its anti-nuclear stance.

[jonwig] 01/11/2018 08:55

Palisade Radio part 9:



Some points:

• 58 reactors under construction, 157 planned.

• "Greenpeace becoming pro-nuclear" - needs checking, of course. The German Greens are a big lobby. (The centre is being hollowed out, with the Greens taking the left, and AfD the right.)

• Some talk about the Kazatomprom IPO at 17 min.

Yesterday's YCA trading was a bit violent, with a double price monitoring extension. The trend was up, though.

[jonwig] 30/10/2018 20:38

54 reactors under construction in Feb 2018:



Assume "under construction" has the same meaning as in the video. That's quite a number, I think!

When you own a stock, the bear case is what you need to be most aware of and think about. (Ramping and de-ramping amount to telling lies - quite different.)