Yellow Cake Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 01/2/2021 17:50

Maybe the Reddit trader hordes are now onto uranium.

The rises today are truly astonishing.

Cameco + 19%
Denison + 9.5%
NexGen + 12%
Energy Fuels + 11.5%

New 5 year high for sector bellwether, Cameco. - A strong sign.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[skyship] 01/2/2021 16:08

If you look at the spot uranium chart for 5yrs, you can see a great bullish pattern emerging. We've had a healthy pullback & IMO we could now start a move back up through the recent 34 & on to 40.

Unable to find a chart somewhere I can copy to paste.

[jaf111] 25/1/2021 13:08

Sorry Skyship I don't normally pick people up like this......must be getting very bored!!!

[skyship] 25/1/2021 11:43

Thnx JAF - decimal point removed!

[jaf111] 25/1/2021 11:00

2.43p of £2.43 NAV? I'll take the latter!

[skyship] 25/1/2021 10:32

In light of today's Update & the 243p NAV as at 22/01; I've bought back my other half today....and a few more on top so as to hold a 6% allocation

[bmcb5] 22/1/2021 13:26

Realistically, I don't see any major change here, until utilities start contracting in earnest. That could still be some time away, so patience is needed. But I suspect that any significant utility buying will move the U price very quickly toward $50, with obvious impact here.

I am continuing to use this time to steadily accumulate, expecting nothing in the short term, but confident that once it moves, these levels will be left behind very quickly indeed.

[lord mandelbaum] 22/1/2021 13:05

Also bought in today; the sell off seems well overdone to me and this could either be a swing trade or a longer term hold depending on the rapidity of the greater Uranium price reset.

[skyship] 22/1/2021 09:28

Yes, reckon I'll wait for the other half....

[jaf111] 22/1/2021 09:25

....Even cheaper to buy now!!!!!

[jaf111] 22/1/2021 07:40

"Great minds....." Skyship, although I got mine at under 225p!!

[skyship] 21/1/2021 19:00

Bought half my YCA back at 227.9p...more tomorrow perhaps.

[skyship] 11/1/2021 13:59

To answer my own question, the NAV as at 5th Nov'20 was stated in the presentation as 251p; then in the Interim statement it was stated as 2% lower at 246p.

So basically the discount has been absorbed by the buybacks and perhaps a few new buyers on the back of the recovering Uranium spot price.

I would expect these to trade back to a 5%-10% discount - 227p would seem a good re-entry point for those who exited on the back of the 20% rise in Nov/Dec.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skyship] 31/12/2020 10:11

Anyone have a handle on the likely current NAV?

[energiser01] 24/12/2020 08:58

Good steady rise in u spot, let’s hope it continues. Dyor etc. Etc...

[sea7] 16/12/2020 15:48

someone bought over a million shares today

[sea7] 16/12/2020 10:06

copied from another poster on another board...

Canaccord comment 290p target

Uranium - Second suspension at Cigar Lake: Yesterday Cameco announced a second suspension of production at its Cigar Lake mine in northern Saskatchewan following three reported cases of COVID-19 and concerns with respect to accessing qualified and skilled workers for critical roles at the mine.
=> 13% of global supply: Cigar Lake is owned 50% by CCO and is the world’s largest operating uranium mine, producing ~18mlbs U3O8 per annum at capacity (representing ~13% of global uranium supply). CCO previously announced a temporary suspension of production at Cigar Lake on March 23; this suspension was followed shortly thereafter by a production suspension at Kazatomprom’s ISR operations in Kazakhstan. These suspensions triggered a rally in both uranium spot pricing (reaching a four-year high of US$34/lb) and global uranium equities, up 254% since March 23.
=> Potential impact - Further tightening of supply: We now forecast total primary mine supply of just 111mlbs U3O8, a level not seen since 2008. Including secondary sources of supply, we anticipate an overall market deficit of 28mlbs U3O8. Furthermore, we believe there is a high probability that COVID-19 impacts on production continue into 2021.
=> Cameco likely to increase spot purchasing: With lower production from Cigar Lake due to another suspension, we believe it is likely that CCO will enter the spot market again and increase spot purchasing to shore up inventory levels and ensure deliveries for 2021. We remind investors that Kazatomprom, the world’s largest producer of uranium, is also active in the spot market for the first time ever.
=> Upward pressure on pricing and equities: With a further tightening in supply, and a forecast increase in spot market activity, we anticipate upward pressure on uranium pricing and equities. We note that global uranium equities are already up 71% YTD.
=> Preferred equities: In Canada, our preferred equities include NexGen Energy (NXE-TSX: C$3.29 | SPECULATIVE BUY, TP C$4.00), and physical fund Uranium Participation Corp for pure-play commodity exposure (U-TSX: C$4.60 | BUY, TP C$6.25).
=> In Australia, we prefer Paladin Energy (PDN-ASX: A$0.25 | SPECULATIVE BUY, TP A$0.20) and Boss Resources (BOE-ASX: A$0.08 | SPECULATIVE BUY, TP A$0.13).
=> In the UK, our preferred exposure is Yellow Cake (YCA-AIM: 224p | BUY, TP 290p).

[yupawiese2010] 15/12/2020 17:15

I have absolutely no knowledge of Greg Barnes track record, who is an analyst with TD Securities, but he feels that Cigar Lake restarting production could be several months away. ( scroll down to the last paragraph in the article ).

[yupawiese2010] 14/12/2020 17:05

Cigar Lake to be put back on care & maintenance again, due to Covid.

[energeticbacker] 11/12/2020 09:56

Featured on Investor's Champion:

With increasing investment in nuclear – China is expected to more than double nuclear power capacity by 2030, India has plans for a further 21 reactors by 2031 and Poland is also moving forward with a $40bn plan to build a first nuclear power plant – Yellow Cake could be an interesting play on the sector.

[skyship] 09/12/2020 08:05

US strategic reserve of Uranium receives Senate approval:

[leading] 08/12/2020 13:16

The Framework Agreement with Kazatomprom is intriguing.

YCA has an option to purchase up to US$ 100m of U3O8 at spot price in each calendar year to 2027 inclusive. At the current price of around $30 that is about 2.2% of the entire global production of U3O8 of about 150m lbs prior to Covid. Actual production in 2020 is likely to be around 120m lbs so its an even greater proportion of that.

YCA would love to issue shares at a premium and buy more U3O8 (thereby tightening the market still further) and no doubt will do so in future. Not possible, well not acceptable to current shareholders at present, as the shares are trading at a frankly inexplicable discount to NAV.

But what if there is a utility out there which is getting nervous about the depth of the spot market? They could underwrite YCA's exercise of its option and pay a commission to YCA on top to provide itself with security of supply.

Remember that this option recurs annually through 2027. The option provides a great degree of "optionality" to YCA. I don't know how you would value it, but I would be surprised if the profits arising from the option as it is exercised over the next few years were not sufficient to cover the operating costs of the business through 2027.

[bmcb5] 07/12/2020 12:57

Looking positive @SM. It would be nice if the move in producers were to be underpinned by a move in the commodity price. I wonder how long this discount to NAV will last?

[strollingmolby] 07/12/2020 10:10

Nice to see all the Canadian uranium producers move up strongly at the end of last week, and YCA/GCL. We might finally be seeing a re-rating get underway...

[sea7] 30/11/2020 19:50

Uranium Royalty corp, talks about its holding in yellowcake as well as other plans..



Dated November 2020