Xlmedia Share Discussion Threads

[km85] 29/3/2019 12:05

Hi all,


I was at the Private Investor meeting yesterday. It was nice to see the Management and the shareholders. Few points and notes were taken.


1. The company will continue to buyback share of 10M and might buy more shares BUT that require shareholders approve on April or May 2019 (When the annual shareholding meeting)
2. The company could easily hit the 2019 numbers before the reduction of 30M of sales but that would not help the situation of 2020 and therefore they decided to reduce the media activates from the begging of the year rather than the end of the year. Important note from Ory as he is saying the 30M reduction of sales would bring about 7M in EBITDA or 2.5M dollar in profit and he said that very low margin. So, I think the Huge sales decline would not really makes a huge impact on the operation or net profit.
3. Ory was honest about the difficulty of 2018. One dude asked him about his feeling when the stock declined like 70%, he said like no one like seeing his share dropping but he made a clear view that the market was not fair when the business was at peak and the market valued was like 12x earning. So, I said welcome to London AIM Market, you should move to Sweden where Better Collective and Catania listing there shares, and they are like 2 to 3 times higher market Cap than us, but our business has brought profits the same or more than theirs.
4. The Personal business is now 8% of overall sales and it will be growing nicely from there.
5. Regulations seems to be positive in EU, regarding the US he is super positive about the states and he thinks the 7m Investment in 3 years will bring very good results. He said 2019 and 2020 no huge sales will come from the US gambling market but after that the US gambling affiliate sales might equal or exceeds the EU sales. The company brought about 70M of gambling sales in 2018 in the EU market, it might be another 70m or so from sales from the states in couple of years?
6. He Is super happy about the Swedish regulation market and He thinks it is the best market at this point and XLM running lots of media ads in this market to support the publishing sites.
7. Some of the sites start recovering but still needs some works to be done, the management was not ready and prepared to protect the sites but now he thinks they are ready.


I asked him what the direct profit margin of personal finance is, he said it is like similar to sport betting and around 70% after salaries and cost. Then, I asked him again how much have we invested /Bought the personal finance sites? He said about 30m. from that I did the calculations and realised that the personal finance sites brought us nice return on capital. Like 6% of overall sales is about 7.02 M and 70% Margin is like 4.9m operation profit or 16.4% operating return on capital invested or acquisitions. I think more money to be made from those assets as XLM will add more finance products(Loans) and will charge more commission when XLM send them more deals.

[seans66] 28/3/2019 21:17

I was impressed OW at the event today. Spoke with intelligence & expertise but also honesty about the challenges & the need for the business to refocus. The share buy backs will continue & in fact they want to spend more. Nice big dividend to come soon too. The US will be a huge opportunity in the next 5 years, & XLM is getting ready for that now. Overall I am pretty optimistic & reassured about the company's future.

[sdtreble] 28/3/2019 12:47

I completely agree with the share buyback, hope it continues for the foreseeable especially at these prices. The less shares in issue the better for EPS going forward.

[tomps2] 28/3/2019 12:09

XLMedia FY interview with Ory Weihs, CEO. More colour on XLM's vision, regulation, personal finance & outlook, embellishing webinar

[km85] 26/3/2019 12:09

XLM FY results were very good in term of numbers and strategies, Profit after tax is about 30m dollar, excluding non cash adjusted item, with higher operating cash flow, good cash and working capital in the balance sheet with very little debts. The strategies moving forward are to stop wasting time and energies on a not so profitable business and focus and grow the profitable business. As i thought before they will continuo to run media ads to support their publishing sites and that kind of media has higher Margin than networking Media or app.

[tomps2] 26/3/2019 11:13

XLM FY18 results presentation by Ory Weihs, CEO

Outlines the business model, the financials, and where future growth will come from, including the Personal Finance Sector and the US gambling opportunity.



c. 20 mins

[cheshire man] 26/3/2019 11:03

"This stock could surprise materially on the upside."


Think and hope the same so took a top up this morning,,,,,,,,,decent divi too while we wait ,,,,,,,,,DYOR

[rivaldo] 26/3/2019 10:13

Looks pretty decent overall - no further alarms AFAICS and a degree of cautious optimism, particularly as regards the growth in finance-related income. The share price is more than discounting the flagged and deliberate decline in lower-margin media revenues.

Cenkos have left their forecasts unchanged, and $43.9m historic EBITDA was ahead of the $42.8m forecast.

10.6c historic EPS is forecast to rise to 12.9c EPS this year and 13.8c EPS in 2020 per new forecasts, with 6c and 7.3c dividends respectively for the coming two years.

Cenkos conclude:

"High FCF yield.
Free cash flow in 2019E should amount to c$22m, or 15% of the group’s market capitalisation. The market is not pricing in any stability, let alone recovery. This stock could surprise materially on the upside."

[purple11] 26/3/2019 08:03

ive taken a few gl

[stoph] 26/3/2019 07:59

And a very healthy dividend yield. Remember Ory's is giving a presentation at 4pm on Thursday. Do not think that XLM shares will available at this low price for that much longer

[hatfullofsky] 26/3/2019 07:53

Sold 25% of my holding yesterday, thinking this may fall on open but we could very possibly see a significant tick up now.

[hatfullofsky] 26/3/2019 07:49

Slightly better than we were expecting.

MCAP £124M / Cash $47M = £35M / PBT $25M = £18M

Net Cash $3.5M lower than H2

[supercity] 22/3/2019 08:04

A tad frustrating that all the buybacks and the share hasn't managed a bounce yet

[seans66] 21/3/2019 15:10

Ok KM85, maybe see you there.

[km85] 21/3/2019 13:45

I will be there next week

[seans66] 21/3/2019 13:42

Anyone else going to PI next Thursday?

[elsa7878] 20/3/2019 18:27

Amazing quantity of stock changing hands daily but only 1 minor change in holding announcement......

[km85] 20/3/2019 14:56

New Hampshire sports betting bill advances to Senate
20 March 2019
New Hampshire is a step closer to regulated sports betting after a bill that would legalise such activities in the state advanced to the Senate.

The New Hampshire House of Representatives has passed an amended version of House Bill 480 by a vote of 269-82, with the bill now moving forward to the Senate for further discussion.

Should the bill come into law, consumers would be able to place bets at various retail locations across the state, as well as via online and mobile platforms. The New Hampshire Lottery Commission would be responsible for regulating the market.

The current version of the bill does not clarify how much the licences would cost, nor the level of tax sports betting operators would face. However, a fiscal note on the bill suggests sports wagering could generate up to $7.5m (£5.7m/€6.6m) in revenue during the first year of regulation.

Among the amendments approved by the House this week include a limit of 10 retail sportsbooks in the state and the establishment of a council for responsible gambling.

An amendment also clarifies the prohibited events where sports betting would not be allowed. This covers any collegiate sports event that takes place in New Hampshire, as well as any high school sports event sand amateur contest where the competitors are under the age of 18.

Sponsors are hoping to pass the bill on or before July 1 this year, with plans in place to launch a request for proposal process for contracted sports betting agents on January 1, 2020.

If the process progresses as expected, the first legal sports bets in New Hampshire could be placed on or around July 1, 2020.

The progression of the bill comes after New Hampshire last month launched a legal challenge against the US Department of Justice's (DoJ) revised opinion on the Wire Act, claiming the new stance is not faithful to the text, structure, purpose, or legislative history of the legislation.

Filed on behalf of the New Hampshire Lottery Commission, the lawsuit states the stance is beyond the DoJ’s powers to enforce, and demands a declaratory judgement setting out the rights of all parties involved, and to an order vacating and setting aside the 2018 opinion.

The DOJ initially ruled that the Wire Act only applied to sports betting in 2011, which was used as a legal basis for state lotteries launching online sales, and states such as New Jersey regulating online casino and poker.

However, this stance was then changed in a revised opinion published by the DoJ's Office of Legal Counsel in January this year, ruling that the Act covered all forms of gambling.

[km85] 15/3/2019 14:55

Not sure Alphapig, I run into Ory like 5 times in different locations and expos. They used to attend several expos in the UK, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands. But last UK expo I did not see them, though I saw Better Collective, Gambling Group and Catena media.

[alphapig] 15/3/2019 14:16

Yeah km85, he left about the same time as you joined, you may even have run into him once or twice going by your occupation. Small world eh!

[km85] 15/3/2019 12:46

Senators introduce sports betting bill in Ohio
15 March 2019
Lawmakers in Ohio are to run the rule over a new bill that could lead to the state legalising land-based and online sports betting.

Sponsored by Senators John Eklund and Sean O’Brien, SB111 would permit the state’s 11 casinos and racinos to offer legal sports wagering to consumers in Ohio.

SB111, the first sports betting bill introduced in the Ohio Senate in the current legislative session, sets out measures that would allow for remote sign-up for players.

Venues that want to offer sports betting services would need to pay a licence fee of $100,000 (£75,500/̈́4;88,300). Licensees would be able to enter partnerships with operators in order to offer sports wagering.

Casinos and racinos that secure a licence would be subject to a tax rate of 6.25% on gross sports betting revenue. However, the bill omits any language relating to a so-called ‘integrity fee’ for professional sports leagues.

Ohio had been one of the only northwest states not to consider sports betting since the repeal of PASPA last year.

Pennsylvania to the east has been running a legal sports wagering market for a number of months, while neighbouring West Virginia has also legalised sports betting.

Meanwhile, Kentucky to the south is also considering a bill that would allow for legal sports wagering in the state, while Indiana is edging closer to legalised sports betting after the Senate recently moved to approve a bill.

[seans66] 15/3/2019 08:12

Glad to see Shaun was not BSing about getting a job at XLM, you just never know on a BB.Definitely must really believe in the company's prospects to actually go work there.