Xlmedia Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 08/3/2017 10:08

Latest tip.

[yump] 08/3/2017 08:10

If he didn't understand it when it was simple, its no surprise he's finding it difficult now.

[busterdog2] 08/3/2017 08:04

So he's not entirely convinced by a business model which by his own admission he doesn't fully understand, priceless.

[tomstone12] 07/3/2017 21:29

Regarding Paul Scott, I think he still has a big a debt to XLM after the crazy comments he put out before.

[penpont] 07/3/2017 20:10

Paul Scott has commented, and although he likes the numbers,concludes:


'My opinion - the numbers look great, but I'm not entirely convinced by the business model.

At some point later this year, I'm hoping to meet management, and dig a bit deeper.'

The latter should be interesting if and when it happens.

[rivaldo] 07/3/2017 12:08

Just tipped on T.M.F as a Buy:



"AIM-listed XLMedia (LSE: XLM) has built a very profitable business by generating leads and finding new customers for online brands. Revenue rose by 16% to $103.6m last year, while pre-tax profit rose by 28% to $31m, giving a pre-tax profit margin of 30%.

The group’s impressive profit margins are partly a result of its payment terms with major online casino operators. Rather than being paid a one-off sign-up fee for each new customer, XLMedia is often paid a percentage of the lifetime revenue from each player’s activity.

Online gambling is still its largest vertical and accounted for 70% of revenue last year. But this figure is down from 83% in 2014. The group is diversifying. For example, it recently acquired a credit card price comparison business in Canada.

I’d hesitate to pay too much for the shares. But the firm’s profits are backed by strong cash generation. XLMedia paid dividends totalling 7.6069 cents per share last year, giving a trailing yield of 5.6%. The group has no debt and net cash of $33m.

Its shares currently trade on a 2017 forecast P/E of 10.7, with a prospective yield of 5%. I’d remain a buyer at current levels."

[bestace] 07/3/2017 11:32

Adam - I was also interested in understanding the flatlining half-on-half revenues.

It looks to me like it's the media and partnership divisions that are down for the last 2 half periods (both in revenue and profit terms) which is offsetting growth in publishing.

Media is where the drop off is most pronounced; revenues in this segment are down 17% H2 2016 compared to H2 2015 while profits are down 41% over the same time period. This was flagged at the last interims:

"In the very short term we anticipate a reduction in revenue from this segment due to decreased demand from a small number of media customers. We believe this is a temporal issue which will not impact the long term growth of this division."

In today's release they're saying "the recent acquisitions... have added more customers and verticals to our portfolio and we expect the media division to deliver stronger growth in 2017"

You could argue they are "running to stand still" in that they are spending money on acquisitions to mask negative organic growth in this division, but if we take those statements at face value and if things pan out as they are telling us, the negative growth in the media division over the last 12 months should just be a temporary dip.

Partner network profits dropped 47% H2 compared to H1, but these are lower margin and represent a small enough part of the overall business that it's not so relevant.

Publishing seems to be going great guns and for H2 2016, revenues for publishing exceeded media for the first time since H1 2014. Publishing margins are vastly superior compared to the other two segments, so clearly a good thing.

[gargleblaster] 07/3/2017 08:49

Sorry,my mistake, 2016 revenue I make as £84.92m (using USD/GBP rate as 1.22).

[gargleblaster] 07/3/2017 08:36

Adam the annualised revenue figs look good from where I am sitting;

To end of 2013 - revs £22.16m, 2014 : £30.86m, 2015 : £60.22m, and as at today 2016 : £89.2m. Current forecast for 2017 : £104.1m

[rock star] 07/3/2017 08:32

The share price has progressively been going up. Watching a kettle doesn't make it boil.

[igoe104] 07/3/2017 08:31

Yes totally agree. XLM has constantly haven't to prove itself because of a few dodgy Israel floats of the past.

[fozzie] 07/3/2017 08:24

Just how many great statements does this company have to come out with before the share price is rated correctly? Very happy to continue holding.

[imranawan] 07/3/2017 08:23

Ok - thanks for clarifying Adam. I take the point, but I hope the recent acquisitions will help them achieve further growth. Like others have said the outlook statement was bullish, and the divi increase was also a statement of confidence. Based on forecasts it's still cheap.

[gargleblaster] 07/3/2017 08:20

The already stingy 9.77p normalised EPS broker forecast for Dec 2017 must surely be revised sharply upward......

[adamb1978] 07/3/2017 08:10

imranawan - no, I mean the last 3 halves. Revenues for those periods have been $52m, then $51m then $53m.

[imranawan] 07/3/2017 08:06

AdamB1978 - do you mean the revenue for H2, which has been around $52m in the last 2 years.

[tomstone12] 07/3/2017 08:05

yes they covered this in SEP, they have cut two thins. Media spend in the utilities sector and some of the less visible partner network activity. Both low margin anyway and from what I read, not strategic. The core business is growing fast and several new sectors are promising for 2017.
its also mentioned in this RNS, regarding utilities.

[rock star] 07/3/2017 08:03

Always a few pre results speculators. Let them trade out then add to positions.

[adamb1978] 07/3/2017 08:02

I'm a hold and have been since 65p. Results obviously look good, outlook statement very positive as well, however can anyone offer an explanation for why turnover has flatlined for 18 months?

[sdtreble] 07/3/2017 07:30

Also like the reference to 'significant' value added in reference to the acquisitions in the outlook statement.'We have made a strong start to 2017 with sales across all products and verticals progressing well. The integration of the recently acquired ClicksMob and Greedyrates businesses is on track and once completed, these acquisitions are expected to add significant value to the Group'

[tomstone12] 07/3/2017 07:26

very strong set of results! like Rivaldo said its all ther and future looks promising.
that re-rating should really be around the corner after 4 great sets of annual results.

New presentation
hxxp://www.xlmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/XLM-Investor-presentation-March-2017-FINAL.pdf
slide 6 shows some of the assets, including one super strong football group (101greatgoals) that I saw follow for a long time :)

[rivaldo] 07/3/2017 07:20

XLM have beaten Cenkos' expectations across all metrics at $1.23 to the £:

- basic EPS is 9.75p - this compares to 9.21p forecast adjusted EPS (the basic EPS would be lower, so true performance is even better)
- dividend is 6.2p compared to 4.81p forecast (almost 30% up)
- PBT is $25.2m compared to $23.64m forecast

And XLM have $30m net cash even after the $5m Clicksmob acquisition cost - that's over 10% of the m/cap.

With a "strong" trading outlook you can't ask for much more.

[rock star] 07/3/2017 07:10

The most important line:

"The Board therefore looks forward to another year of strong growth and is extremely confident of the medium term trading prospects of the Group."

[tomstone12] 06/3/2017 19:01

seems like the writer is still hung up on the strategic review which is very old news plus he claims it was the CEO'S idea which we really don't know much why would he be buying shares all along if that was the case.
plus he doesn't seem to realise the CEO had no control over the placing.

[busterdog2] 06/3/2017 16:38

You won't see the losers, only the winners.