Xlmedia Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 23/2/2017 08:09

Another pre-open buy today at 108p - someone's making a habit of this!

[tomstone12] 22/2/2017 08:14

hoping to make it if work allows.

[rivaldo] 22/2/2017 08:02

Interesting to see a 1k share buy at 108p before the open today - a full 2p above the published 106p offer.

Tomstone12, I may well go to the presentation.

[tomstone12] 20/2/2017 18:00

who is planning on attending the private investor presentation in a few weeks?

[rivaldo] 20/2/2017 12:33

Great to see XLM holding presentations for private/retail investors this year post-results on 8th March as well as for institutions. More companies should follow this model - the more that can be learnt about one's investments the better.

With $14.4m already spent on acquisitions this year there will hopefully be upgrades to forecasts for this and next year following the results.

As a reminder, current forecasts from Cenkos are:

last year : 9.21p EPS, 4.81p divi
this year : 9.78p EPS, 5.29p divi

Anyone got Berenberg's forecasts? Their 150p target price is higher than Cenkos' 130p, so I wonder if their estimates are higher accordingly?

[yump] 20/2/2017 10:27

o/t actually quite a few affiliates retired on the back of windfalls in various sectors, when Google used to list your sites higher than the retailers (early ecommerce days 2000-2005 ish). Affiliates were creating content that Google liked way faster than retailers, who were slow, so loads of searches ended up going via affiliate sites showing products on the first search page and it was literally ker-ching, every few minutes !

Great example was that when you rent a car on holiday you search for 'rent a car in Palma', but the holiday car rental companies just had their existing site. One affiliate just created a page for every 'rent a car in xxx', with some info. about the place and some other waffle, which Google liked and that was a multi-million business in a couple of years I think.

[tomstone12] 20/2/2017 08:09

Yump, to each his own and your approach is totally fine. (not for me though :))They have increased EPS and lowered revenue guidance in SEP as of a result of change to the utilities sector and trimming of their partner network (both low margin businesses )
regarding financials they haven't come out and said but to my knowledge an efficient run lead gen with low OPEX (no call center and TV ads) can make 50-55% EBIT margins quite easily which while lower then the gambling is more stable and represents a solid business line. BTW regarding retiring form Gambling I'm sure the XLM founders are quite well off from the years before the IPO as well as post (div's and placement), wouldn't worry about that! :)

[yump] 19/2/2017 18:24

tomstone12

Yes. They have moved into some other verticals I know. I'm quite interested in seeing if they separate out performance at some point, because I'm sure the profitability will not be the same in all verticals, so I won't be back in until its apparent whether the diversification is growing the business in revenue terms, while having a diminishing margin. Perhaps the margin will be better. I've met a couple of affiliates who virtually retired on the back of gambling site lead producing revenue/share. The price-comparison/financial/insurance sites all seemed to go quite corporate early on, (possibly because of FSA etc.) which I think made them very profitable and quite efficient already. Gambling was a bit of a free for all, don't bother how you get the lead type operation in many cases. Lots of potential efficiences, plus control issues, which I think XLM have solved in many cases, therefore gaining credibility with the final customers.

[yump] 19/2/2017 18:06

I think you mean positive and supportive, rather than constructive don't you.

Sometimes I post the negative stuff to see if any positive stuff comes up to convince me. That's constructive enough for me. Tough if it isn't for others.

This is not a chatty hobby forum after all.

[critter] 19/2/2017 17:32

Yump contribute something constructive or go and deramp elswhere!

[tomstone12] 18/2/2017 10:55

Fine, but you did notice they basically said this is what they want to do since the IPO right and in every report since then ?

[yump] 18/2/2017 10:47

I have no doubt XLM are well run. Its the investment case that I think has changed.

[tomstone12] 18/2/2017 10:34

I think they run the business quite well
Let's see, 3 years, triple revenue, 2 5 times EPS and most of the funds raisespaid back in dividends while maintaining a large cash balance and adding different business lines.

Not bad in my book..

But hey you lost some cash on a totally different company, so I guess that's invalid:)

[yump] 18/2/2017 10:23

There is a difference between sticking to gambling and making sure you've exploited your assets fully in that area before trying another market. Especially if you just go and buy a big established business in that vertical.

The idea that you diversify in order to avoid a potential collapse which might or might not happen as a result of regulatory changes, is quite honestly ridiculous and no way to run any business.

fyi DGS had a bit of tech. they developed for managing paid search successfully in the US in utilities, for customer acquisition. They floated and started geographical expansion into Europe and into some other markets such as mobile. They've now delisted and I lost a chunk of money.

You may think that has negatively influenced my comments on here. It has. Because I should never have bought those shares in the first place as they explicitly floated to do that expansion, which in retrospect made the investment risk very high.

The truth may never come out, but I now wonder why they didn't go for further expansion in utilities in the US first. Or at least another vertical. But no, they floated and went for Europe.

So there's a parallel here, in that XLM have bought a Canadian financial business. Canadian ? Really ? So there was nothing closer to home ?

I think the revenue growth is slowing in gambling and that is why they've looked elsewhere. I don't think its anything to do with managing business risk.

We'll see.

[tomstone12] 18/2/2017 09:49

We should consider a different take on "risk". Not diversifying is the risk factor! Consider gambling, in which you claim would be better to stick to. How many times have we seen this industry go through turmoil and share prices collapse on the back of regulatory changes ? A one trick pony dependent only one this sector introduces a much higher else risk IMO then a diversified one using a proven business model and tech across different sectors with less regulatory volatility. And again re finanční also they said in presentations they work on CPA there, as they don't in many cases in gambling. In some financial services sector like insurance even rev share is allowed. FYI

[blueeyes13] 18/2/2017 03:57

Sorry, last 3 x 6 month periods I meant and not quarters, apologies.

[blueeyes13] 18/2/2017 02:25

Yump I for one always like to hear the negative or contrarian view if it is a reasoned point or argument, please carry on posting in a reasoned way. I held here which was my joint largest holding and was very bullish on the co. I sold out half near the recent high for a decent profit after doubling down at the low after re FD sell off. I recently sold the other half. I'm now waiting for more commentary and detailed financials in March full results. I sold as someone on this board rightly pointed out that rev hadn't really increased last 3 quarters. I'd missed this as I have a busy full time business and don't always have the time to look at results as I'd like. I do then use this board for reasoned comments from other more professional or capable investors. I can make my own mind up after reading, I don't always believe or agree what others say and often ignore the 'noise'.There is more risk moving into new industries from your core competence this cannot be denied. I think the management are very capable and the company will move forward with great success but the risk factor has increased. My number 1 rule is preserving my capital. I eagerly await March and will hopefully be persuaded to buy back in . I don't mind missing some short term upward movement as I'm generally a long term investor but am open to changing my position on new news as all investors should be open to.This is all my own opinion and please feel free to ignore.Regards

[yump] 17/2/2017 16:58

I'm actually working in that funnel, the revenue models are not the same, but OK have it your own way. Not my problem as cg8 said above. Clearly my points are tarnished, so don't think about them.

[tomstone12] 16/2/2017 19:01

Yump.. regarding CPA look at XLMs presentations, Rev Share has been 50% of rev for quite some time. Financial services are very much similar to gambling in the funnel concept as is almost any other product, helping the buying make an educated choice. its really essentially the same.

[cg8riverside] 16/2/2017 16:16

Yump you're full of ship. You sold out your entire holding last June at sub 70p. Share price has risen over 50% since then. If you don't hold any shares any more what are you still doing here frequently deramping?

[yump] 16/2/2017 11:04

They don't know it fits other industries until they try it, with your investment. The risk has changed markedly.

For a start, as far as I'm aware, financials don't have an ongoing revenue model for the lead-generator, for the customer they deliver. Its a one-off. Gambling does.

[tomstone12] 16/2/2017 10:06

Listen to the CEO he keeps saying the model they use fits other industries.
They are not changing but adding more revenue streams which is a positive.
There will be growth in gambling as always according to them

[yump] 16/2/2017 09:08

The profit warning is not the issue. Its the vague statements that come out. Its the unanswered questions where there's no reason for not answering them. Its the changed business models, imposed by the market, but dressed up as progressive on the part of the company.

The question you could ask here, is why are they changing their business model ?

They were growing organically by acquiring websites for customer acquisition in gambling.

Now they've bought a large existing financial website, with a view to making it more efficient.

Those approaches are very different.

[tomstone12] 16/2/2017 08:29

I can show you quite a few UK companies that issued profit warnings, move on. its been 3 years since XLM's listing and most of what they raised paid back in divi's. Plus who cares about some company that makes $6MIL a year that has been forgotten ages ago

[yump] 16/2/2017 08:18

It won't be helped by yet another Israeli company turning out to have issued a vague and ambiguous statement about contract 'extras' a while ago and now issued a profit warning: Simigon. Sitting on a pile of cash for ages and now announcing a share buy back scheme. A little late for that. The share price has tanked.

Forget putting any value on cash per share. You won't ever see it in a special dividend.