Wynnstay Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 07/7/2023 23:26

wad

I hold and have no intention of selling.
The company is a well run business.
The previous year's results were exceptional, as reported at the time and flagged as not to be repeated.
This time there has been a reversal of fertiliser prices, giving up some of the exceptional gains previously reported. That has also applied elsewhere across the footprint.
The newly acquired birdfeed arm has been impacted by bird flu but things are now improving.
As ST says solid PE.
The FD change is just the result of reaching the age to put his feet up.
The board has a lot of experience of farming and the needs of the farmer. They are slowly expanding the footprint to reach a wider area. This is being done in a controlled way that gives stability.
Good long term hold.

red

[wad collector] 07/7/2023 22:18

Simon Thompson has just recommended selling here, having previously said topslice. He notes the fall in fertiliser prices, and feed demand and the FD departure. However he also notes the solid P/E and that it still is a valid long term investment.
I am sitting on my loss for now.

[redartbmud] 04/7/2023 10:27

wad

Wyn is no different to many companies in the current climate.
Relatively low yield accompanied by the risk of share ownership.
It needs a combination of dividend and modest capital growth to make it an acceptable investment project. Otherwise a 5% plus return on a bond with no risk is too tempting a proposition.

Roberts retiring is a negative. He understands the business inside out and will be difficult to replace on that score.

red

[wad collector] 04/7/2023 09:31

Yesterday's interims were complicated by last yr's one off gain, but board determined to keep upping the dividend. However the yield is not much of an attraction here.

[tomps2] 26/6/2023 08:56

Wynnstay (WYN) interim results webinar

Friday, 7 July, 1:00pm

Wynnstay, the agricultural supplies group, will announce its interim results for the six months ended 30 April 2023 on Monday, 3 July.

Gareth Davies, Chief Executive Officer, and Paul Roberts, Finance Director, will host an online presentation of the Company’s results on Friday, 7 July at 1.00 p.m. Management will discuss the Group’s first-half performance and outlook, and there will be a question-and-answer session at the end of the presentation.

Register here: bit.ly/WYN_H1_webinar

[0rb1t] 09/6/2023 20:03

Good update from NWF today

[jeffian] 09/6/2023 11:25

Let's hope so. It's been a pretty solid week of gains.

[wad collector] 07/6/2023 11:32

Sp perked up this am on a little bit of volume, has the nadir passed?

[redartbmud] 17/4/2023 11:17

As said before, a share price invariably overcorrects on the news.
Wynnstay were at pains to inform the market that the stars had aligned in a never to be repeated pattern to produce a stellar year, and that the results would not be repeated anytime soon. Anyone with any common sense, knowledge and sanity would have accepted those facts.
There were two choices open to punters:
1. Sell on the results, with the aim of buying back when the share price invariably fell back to more normal levels that are representative of historic trading.
2. Hang on and accept that the rise in price would be a temporary blip, and a missed opportunity for a profitable trade.

Anyone with any knowledge and sesnse would not have bought the share on th back of the meteoric rise.

The management has a plan to expand the footprint across a greater part of the country and to broaden the products offered to the farming community, such as chicken feed.
In the longer term that should benefit the business and the shareholders. They aren't in the game of betting the house on the spin of the roulette wheel, so slowly slowly is the future.
Management is strongly aligned to and understands farmers and farming, that is itself a lifetime occupation.
I can live with that over the long term.

red

[wad collector] 17/4/2023 10:39

I was in my local branch today , I was struck on what a massive operation it has become. It was a typical industrial park Shed before, but now they have moved round the block and seems to have turned into a bigger warehouse high security , one way system , barrier exit set up. Expensive infrastructure but maybe saves on pilfering.
Their herbicide prices were competitive!

[jeffian] 04/4/2023 13:06

I'm not sure it is a "classic PI error" unless you are a trader. I, having learned from My Old Mum after a youth of trading myself to a standstill, am a buy-and-hold-forever investor and it has stood me (and her before me) in very good stead. I accept that it requires a certain mindset that is able to ignore short-term fluctuations but on the very few occasions I have panicked or been stopped out by a fall, I have almost always come to regret it in the long run. I used to keep a 'dummy portfolio' into which I put one imaginary share of each stock I sold at the price I sold at. I don't do it now - too depressing - it was always my best portfolio!

I have been in WYN twice. I sold the first time as I wasn't keen on their foray into the retail area. I reinvested fairly recently and am certainly down at the moment but happy that over the longer term I expect it to provide stable and growing earnings and dividends, which is all I look for at my time of life. As long as it goes on doing that, the share price will follow in due course.

[wad collector] 04/4/2023 09:57

I guess the share price is back to alignment with the prepandemic levels , but fall seems rather relentless. A classic PI error is to hold on too long to falling stocks , we don't like cutting losses, and I am reluctant to bail out now. Hold and hope.

[redartbmud] 03/4/2023 15:08

knocker

Good strategy that is tried and tested.
I am aware that bottom fishing isn't a successful long time pastime.
When I added I took a view.
The problem is the free float that can lead to over-correction both ways when volume increases.
Not looking to reduce the holding, so I will review things over the half-year and full-year results.

red

[t-trader] 03/4/2023 14:44

Have took a punt on these this morning, got in at 439.95

Noticed a director sell today, but nothing significant

Currently in very oversold territory and apart from some recent price pressures looks a decent solid company.

[1knocker] 31/3/2023 23:07

red, I think so too, but it seems wise to wait for a clear trend reversal before buying rather than guess at an approaching bottom. I'd rather be a bit late into a rising trend than too early on a falling trend. Its just luck to get the very bottom.

When I made my repurchase, I made the mistake of thinking I had found the bottom, without waiting to get confirmation from a trend reversal.

Tops are also a matter of guesswork. There though it is probably more likely that one will spot the a share price getting ahead of itself - though even then you can be blindsided by some acquisition or other news which arrives unheralded out of a clear blue sky!

It is more important to be lucky than skilful at this game (though must of us mark our good luck dow to skill, and our bad luck down to unforeseeable events).

[redartbmud] 30/3/2023 16:08

knocker

I have no doubt that it will turn up again in time.
It is a conservatively managed business and the country needs the meat, veg and eggs produced by UK farmers.
They have expanded their footprint so forward sales volumes will grow. Costs and cash are well cntrolled.

Relaxed.

red

[1knocker] 30/3/2023 15:49

I sold out at 621 and bought back half at 535, which I hoped was a bottom. Since then they are down about another £!. A reminder that bottoms are near impossible to see on the way down! Once a tightly held share like this starts to slide, it is impossible to know how far it will go.

My holding is in a sense 'free' as I originally bought at 269, but at the current price my repurchase has thrown away a chunk of profit. The most dividend is not much comfort. I think it is probably wise to wait for a clear reversal of the down trend before buying more.

[redartbmud] 22/3/2023 22:08

Added a few to long term holding. Showing as a sell, as I expect are other trades listed today. AI doesn't always get it right.
XD in 8 days - 11.6p might massage a bit of pain should the price fall further.

red

[1tx] 22/3/2023 10:30

Yes the "tightly held" nature of the shareholder register needs to be explained if recent buyers here are unaware.Wynnstay started business just over 100 years ago as a farmer owned cooperative.It became a PLC in the 1990's,it listed its shares for a time on the old OFEX (now Aquis) matched bargain market but very few shares were traded;I tried to buy in the late 90's several times without success.It was only when the company listed on AIM in late 2004 that the shares became available.From memory only a small number of new shares were placed.My understanding is that a fairly substantial part of the shares still remain with the families of the original farmer owners who in many cases are customers.I became a shareholder in 2004 & have held since.

[redartbmud] 21/3/2023 23:22

The shares are tightly held, with minimal free float.
Any change tends to be exaggereated as a result, and the spread doesn't help in that regard.
They were very transparent during the year under review that it was an exceptional 'one off' where the planets aligned to provide an outcome that could not be repeated.

There are organic growth plans and the possibilities for bolt-on's will present themselves from time to time.
The company isn't going to jeopardise its future with anything kamikaze, so if you want boring, safe and steady growth, you pick your time, buy/add and put them under the bed aka Warren Buffett.

Attended the AGM. It reinforced my views.

knocker, you may be lucky and catch some on a bad day at a price below that prevailing, but you might not.

red

[1knocker] 21/3/2023 22:51

A bit of boring would suit me very well at present !

[topvest] 21/3/2023 21:22

I guess this year is going to be a tad more tricky with pricing coming-off sharply and last year was very much a one-off exceptional result. They will still likely make c40p EPS this year though. For me, its a buy below £4. I'm adding and holding rather than trading as its a sound well run business. The share is cyclical but always makes a decent profit even at low prices. The dividend is also well covered and gets increased every year. Excellent balance sheet. Great company. Just too boring for most people!

[1knocker] 21/3/2023 16:39

WYN I continuing to slide and is now at its lowest price for a couple of years.Does anyone have any thoughts on what might be a good top up price?

[redartbmud] 16/3/2023 15:47

knocker

A very pointed analysis.

red

[1knocker] 16/3/2023 15:42

The share price has declined a tad of recent weeks, but still very stable (and pretty high) in the context of the market as a whole. A strange share. it was also quite stable a while back at half the present SP, then jumped and fell back before rising to over 600. As a buyer at the bottom a couple of years ago, a seller on the bounce, repurchase, and then sold out at 621, and repurchased half at 535 last year I was expecting a bigger drop in the present turmoil to buy back the other half.

I guess I was just lucky. I had never heard of Wyn and originally bought without much investigation on a tip in some mag (IC I think), which is usually a recipe for disaster.
On the other hand, no amount of due diligence saved me from some other purchases which have proved untimely. For example I thought Supermarket Income was a gift at 110, with no rental voids, sound tenants, and index linked rents in its leases, but now it is down to 86. Perhaps a dart is the best investment tool.