Worthington Share Discussion Threads

[davidkip] 28/3/2020 17:42

You're correct that the population infection rate is higher than reported. That's why they have been deep-diving into the outbreaks so as to measure the underlying IFR. The IFR is the fatality rate estimated for all people who are infected (critically, including mild and asymptomatic) - as opposed to the symptomatic case fatality rate (which is higher for obvious ascertainment bias reasons). It looks to be around 0.6%. That figure includes all the hypothesised "unknown untested and asymptomatic" cases.

If you don't like the DP data then here's the Ferguson analysis of the Wuhan outbreak.



See in particular Table 1

Going for 70% population infection at 0.6% mortality, either suddenly or gradually, remains would produce a horrific mortality event in the UK. Note the government are targeting 20,000 deaths as their "best case, successful outcome" scenario as a result of the social distancing etc.

[roydyor] 28/3/2020 15:49

Until there is more testing we will not know how many have actually been infected but I strongly believe that it is much higher than figures given for those tested that were taken to hospital, this would give a much smaller percentage of deaths in relation to those infected from present figures. The Diamond Princess was a special case due to the majority being in the upper age range. The answer is obviously a vaccine but to get the immunity required is a long way off and I strongly believe the majority of people getting a hopefully mild dose is our best bet at the moment. My son is a nurse by the way and lives with my wife and myself, who are in the at risk age range, so we are putting the theory to the test and all three of us are soldiering on helping patients and neighbours that are housebound. Only time will tell who is right.

[roydyor] 28/3/2020 09:17

There is a fine line between starting a lockdown too early, which will leave the country with not enough people carrying the antibodies, the herd principle, or leaving it too late and having your hospitals swamped. The other big argument against overdoing lockdowns is recession. A world recession would cause more damage in the long run to health and wealth than the virus.

[johnbri4] 28/3/2020 08:08

Lockdown here in S.A. and I mean lockdown. Streets patrolled by police and army and we only have 100 cases and 2 deaths. Only 20 more days or more if required.
Where are all the lowlifes?

[davidkip] 28/3/2020 07:57

Shouldn’t WHET be releasing a statement regarding how COVID-19 is impacting their operations?

[arthur_lame_stocks] 27/3/2020 20:07

I'm still going to work.

[knigel] 27/3/2020 18:54

I do hope everyone is safe and well and not yet gone totally crazy locked up indoors all day..

[spikeyj] 27/3/2020 14:35

i do hope for the sake of the vietnamese people that
they haven’t got stuck looking after that free-loading
‘non-resident’ scumbag during this all covid19 stuff.

[jackjackjack1] 21/3/2020 15:15

Thanks yumyum

[jackjackjack1] 21/3/2020 15:14

Thanks yumyum

[jackjackjack1] 21/3/2020 15:11

Roydyor yes I can see but who had the most share to sell and did big mouth DD sell / make that much he seems to come and go on here he has 2 million in shares which he must of paid for so - minus that how much has he really made or the others

[jackjackjack1] 21/3/2020 14:59

Come on DD stop self isolating pay up on your bet and be a better person that we know you are love the DJ

[roydyor] 21/3/2020 13:57

Wulstan Earley and Darren Chapman sold them at anything from 5p upwards although they obviously paid Allan Biggar more than 0.01p each for them. Whatever the final figures are it has all gone pear shaped and I would agree that they probably never made as much as they were expecting. The shareholders certainly didn't.

[jackjackjack1] 21/3/2020 13:46

Is this correct one million at 1 p = £10000 x 60 mill is £600000 not a lot to split between two or more plus 2 million shares left to the DD plus who ever else has unsold shares seeing he is so rich

[roydyor] 21/3/2020 13:36

You have to allow a bit for setting up costs. :)

[yumyum1] 21/3/2020 13:20

1.5 million roughly.

[roydyor] 21/3/2020 13:14

If they created nearly 60m shares at 0.01p each and got left with about 10m after selling the others at approximately 2.5p it would give them a profit of more than one million pounds. This is just a rough guide but you can see how it is done, money from thin air if the original shares were unpaid.

[jackjackjack1] 21/3/2020 11:50

So did they make money having 2 million sharers still left with them

[spikeyj] 21/3/2020 11:38

knigel, they pumped up the demand, but then they
restricted the liquidity by *not* sending out the
shares until *after* trading began, contrary to what
had been promised during the initial ramp. to my mind,
that’s precisely the opposite of helping with liquidity.

[jackjackjack1] 21/3/2020 11:35

So why has Dazs still got 2 million of worthless shares in wrn

[knigel] 21/3/2020 08:54

Spikejy, wasn't there two main sellers over a number of weeks (WE) and a neutral person would say it created liquidity for the demand. However I agree these sellers obviously made money out of Whetstone and had probably done their seller when the shares started to go back south
As for the FCA, I don't know! So stop asking because I have always been here due to the unique events that happened and not because I have a connection ffs

[spikeyj] 21/3/2020 08:09

is all this whinging about people dobbing in
WRN, or people reporting the ‘newco’ game?