Work Service Share Discussion Threads

[coolen] 07/11/2013 22:41

ipo's are popular at the moment, so may be worth a shot ?

[topvest] 07/11/2013 21:05

Smithie - yes, I would love to see Tudor Rose floated. Can't see it in the short term though, as they won't get a great price until they put their problems firmly behind them.

[smithie6] 06/11/2013 15:22

btw
the latest annual accounts are now avail. on line

hxxp://www.city-group.com/pdfs/2013%20Western%20RA%20Web(207).pdf

[smithie6] 06/11/2013 12:23

just a reminder of key pt. in yesterdays post

NAV of approx. 122p imo


if the value for Hartim is as estimated above

while the share price to buy is 60p...too cheap imo
the trades data from ISDX imo shows all trades in last 8 weeks as buys, no sells
..while noting there are very few trades...set of investors who put up the money to invest in Hartim, 2007/8 I think...and waiting for X years for it to come good and be floated, must surely be getting closer to that time/moment

[smithie6] 06/11/2013 11:55

dirs. at SWL buy 1.4% of SWL

could well be a turning point on the SWL share price chart

(Western has a large investment in SWL...around 1.8M shares...
if the share price starts going up....then the Western NAV will benefit
actually a simple relationship.....10p increase at SWL equals 1p to Western NAV...or 1.6% wrt the western sp)

[smithie6] 05/11/2013 19:17

calculation of current NAV of Western

----
if ignore that Hartim has value due to its profit

and use the value given in the accounts
then

imo Western NAV is currently 93p

up 11p from end June official NAV of 82p/share.

using ...mid prices
NBI 462p
SWL 78p
CRE 100p

Hartim + western associates 308k
Gen. Port. 2.95M
Debt 200k

----

If value Hartim at 28p (see previous post) then
NAV = 28 + 93p = 121p

----

Note
Historically Western has struggled since around 2002 to get past NAV of 100p....partly since when it got there before in 2006/7 there was a cash raising via new shares, reducing the NAV per share.

it looks like it has finally done it...
55-60p share price is too low imo, even though the share price has really motored over previous months

[smithie6] 05/11/2013 18:30

Western share of Hartim profits was around 180k in 2010

around 1/2M in the year ended 2012

and current Hartim year will be ending in 7 weeks imo
and could report a further increase in profit

"Western holds 49.5% of Hartim, which has a 31st December year end, and which generated
trading profits before exceptional items in the year to 30th June 2013 of £915,000. Hartim
sustained exceptional losses, after tax, in connection with Australia of £2,809,000 "

Hartim is perhaps worth 10 x 1/2M to Western, 5M , perhaps more if 2013 has been a good year or future outlook is good. Current profitability is much higher than it was in the first year after acquisition. ie. growth in profits. 'If' looks possible to continue that growth then p/e would be higher.

28p per share

added to reported NAV , at end June 2013 of 82p (I think NBI has risen since then, increasing the NAV)
(NBI share price of 3.52 in the accounts. 4.62 mid price now. 110p per share higher. or 2.2M pnds, or 12p per Western share

gives

110p +12p = 122p

(noting, a small shaving perhaps required for small fall in share price of SWL and CRE, perhaps only 2-4p, I might try to work it out one day...)

and the price to buy is 60p, too cheap imo

the buys of Western shares indicates that someone has been interested over last 2 months...driving the share price up

more to come imo

-----

The mkt is more receptive to IPOs now that it has been in the years between now and 2009. And mkts are up around all time highs
...so more ameniable to floating Hartim now that in previous years.

(the other shareholder with Hartim, 1 person, would I assume be looking to cash in some profit and sell some of their stake...and enjoy the money, while perhaps leaving some in to grow further)

[smithie6] 04/11/2013 16:54

Western has large discount to its NAV....despite the fact that its NAV has been rising nicely since 2009

discount is too large imo....and imo will continue to reduce...ie. the share price will continue to rise

[smithie6] 30/10/2013 13:26

...sp P/E ratings have picked up a lot since 2009....

(and various shares are looking expensive imo, like Next...normally a good time to do IPOs, demand and high prices.)

and more IPOs going thru imo than has been the case

so

perhaps around now would be a logical time to float Hartim.

[smithie6] 30/10/2013 11:34

3 month graph looks very nice....

steps up and up again........



-----
fair sized trades as well

5k, 7.5k,

and 2 trades in Sept for 15000 shares

whereas most PIs would only be buying/selling say 1k-2k shares.

-----

All of the trades in last 3 months have imo been buys. A +ve sign imo.

And almost all trades in last 3 months have been at around the mid price. Which imo infers a buyer that has a good idea what they are doing.....

[smithie6] 15/10/2013 16:58

"Never happens on insolvent company positions!"...very true....

[topvest] 14/10/2013 21:29

Indeed I expect there were mor costs in between January 2013 and June 2013 given the exceptionals are bigger in the WSE accounts than the Hartim accounts. I wouldn't factor in any upside. Never happens on insolvent company positions!

[topvest] 14/10/2013 21:27

I would guess the amount likely is between £0 and £0!

[smithie6] 14/10/2013 15:52

Topvest
do you know who has first call on the value of goods supplied to Auz. co. by Hartim....but not paid for so far ?

if the end customer ends up paying for the goods.....do the workers have first call on that money for wages and redundancy packages.....or does the real owner of the money (Hartim) have first call on the money ?

(normally in contracts it would say that the goods and money remain at all times the property of the original supplier...until they have been paid)

(I am wondering whether Hartim may ...in time...get back the value of the goods....was it 1.6M )

[topvest] 12/10/2013 17:16

Yes, I agree. It's happened though so they need to move on and develop what is left.

[smithie6] 10/10/2013 14:12

so the Auz. venture cost 1/2M to buy and 2.4M written off of money owed from them to Hartim.

about 3M in total
(unless the 2.4M includes the 1/2M investment cost)

2 dirs. of Hartim sitting on both bods.


the Auz. misadventure ....as called by D.Marshall....was approved in advance by D.Marshalls son....who sits on the Hartim board.....and the main accounts person of WSE/LFI E.Beale, also on the Hartim board.

and Western owns half of Hartim

so ....Western participated fully in the mistakes of the "misadventure"

even though the Western accounts try to point the finger at Hartim execs. ...Western were and are 100% part of that team...so, pointing the finger at themselves

at Doctors Direct....I recall it went bust around 12-18 months after raising money in its IPO....with D.Marshall as chairman and E.Beale on the bod....another fast collapse.....
some may say that not a good track record...although, to never get it wrong you just never take any risk or make any decisions !...and never make any money

----

for a small company.... a loss of 3M within a 12 month period....is ....massive imo

[smithie6] 10/10/2013 13:54

2 years ?

2 of the Hartim dirs. are dirs. at the Auz. subsidiary.....so surely the dirs. have access to the accounts/data....even though the Hartim accounts say that they dont ??

1.6M of goods supplied to Auz. subsidiary....
does Hartim not remain owner of those goods (well in fact, the suppliers of the goods to Hartim).....and recoverable at any time.....

according to normal Ts and Cs....

so could Hartim not obtain the goods or the money for them ?
or pass the debt on to the suppliers of the goods.....

or recoup the money via insurance ?
---

be a useful chunk of money for Hartim accounts

[topvest] 09/10/2013 21:39

I think they could only do this through eliminating the holding company and putting a new one on top of Tudor Rose International Limited. The audit qualification in Hartim will have to work it's way through which will take another 2 years, so would cause difficulties on a listing.

[smithie6] 09/10/2013 17:19

...the trail of mishaps behind the directors of Western/LFI over the years is quite worrying
...one wonders if they would do better spinning a coin to make their decisions !

the controlling director being in that postion just due to birth rather than merit.....not good imo....and the results agree

---

Hartim has written off X millions.
Do you think there is any chance that the final write off will be a lower amount ?
eg. if an end customer pays for goods delivered....would Hartim get any of that money ...normally, contracts say that goods remain the legal property of the supplier until paid for ?...or must the money first go to pay redundancy packages ??

who gets first call on money, people who have not been paid for goods, people who have lent money to the co. or workers wages and workers redundancy packages ?

Since Aird and Gibson are also directors of the bust co. .....will they be receiving any redundancy package payments ?!!
------

imo now would be

- a good time and
- logical time to float Hartim....sell say 10% ...and the cash raised can pay off a chunk of the nett current liabilities

nett current liabilities position is not too pretty at present.....and imo it would be logical to rectify that asap.

it now has a number of years of accounts that can be shown/used

[topvest] 07/10/2013 21:59

Yes, it was an unbelievably bad situation. There is no point stewing over the past though. What is done is done. I think the lease must have been resolved as there is no mention of a contingent liability anymore. Yes, they certainly did invest way too much in the Australian business. Nevertheless, hopefully they are now back to where they should be (albeit 3/4 years behind where they would have been if they hadn't messed-up). There will be some more exceptional costs to come, but hopefully they can start moving ahead again and stick to just growing their UK business which is really quite valuable. I suppose I'm heartened by the fact that it could be worse - the business could have gone bust! That doesn't appear to be likely, albeit no more accidents can be tolerated. The lease and the Australian debacle is quite enough!

[topvest] 06/10/2013 17:41

Is it Smithie6 now?

[coolen] 04/10/2013 22:32

Poster "callumross" claimed to chat to the company.

But that was in the days that "MarkT" used to post every 24 hours with daily views on WSE.

MarkT was a prolific poster and critic of WSE - has anyone a clue as to why he should have stopped commenting ?

[smithie6] 04/10/2013 15:49

my mistake

perhaps it was "Countryman" or similar posting name that I had in mind...