Work Service Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 12/7/2013 14:51

Coolen

by the way

imo Western shares are a better buy than NBI at the moment

with each western share you get a bag free of goodies thrown in....
CRE, SWL, Gen. Portfolio...and Hartim...

with each NBI share there are no extra goodies ....for 1 share you get 1 share.
(but !!, at NBI you get the divi...whereas at Western the NBI divi is consumed by Western running costs but you do get the capital gain or loss without any running costs.......Western divi is paid from assets imo....so...Western needs capital gain of assets....which NBI and CRE have been producing quite nicely in last few months....fingers crossed it keeps going)
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past Western poor performance.....perhaps was due to decisions being made by .....well, old boys ! with traditional investing principles....which might have worked OK in the 60s and 70s but not so well in recent years as perhaps dont take into account international competition, global changes, Eurozone crashes, much shorter lifecycles for various products, faster changing market, sales (and competition) by internet...

perhaps recent decisions are being made more by newer people now...
such as CEO of City Group....day to day manager of Western
decision to invest in NBI 7 years ago has proven to be very good...
and Hartim (also new investment) was doing very very well till Auz distributor going into admin. hit its numbers
(and the chairman (officially resident in S.Africa) may now be happier to leave more decisions to others...now he is almost 70....and the newer people have now been at Western for a number of years....)

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Hartim has returned to about break even after one off costs in fin. year to Dec 2012.....vs 200k loss I think in prior year...
so.....if remove those one costs....looks like Hartim is operating profitably...
so could well have real value

[coolen] 11/7/2013 23:16

There seems to be some slight negatives creeping in here.

In the wake of the critical analysis provided previously by poster MarkT, I sense that caution is advised on WSE.

I've cancelled my purchase order and will go off to re-read MarkT's previous negative epistles on WSE's management style.

Other posters beware, this is clearly not a stock to buy.

[smithie6] 11/7/2013 10:42

ISDX

Western has been around for donkeys years...and UK audited etc...so we are fairly happy that the assets etc exist....

but for another new float in 2012 it appears that that was not the case...

and the ISDX new listing process, with the new company adviser, would appear imo to have been a shambles in determining the truth about the proposed new listing...

perhaps a fraudulent new listing....just to obtain or steal money from the public....

my point ?
imo be very cautious about any new listings on ISDX...since it appears that ISDX does not check them out sufficiently

(personally I dont bother with new listings any more..and if I did I would want to see a few years of accounts, ideally audited in a recognised western country)

[smithie6] 11/7/2013 10:24

btw
now that there are some posters posting...

do people have any interest in sending an e-mail to the co. asking that the next set of results (Sept) include details of how the 350k/year running cost is spent/used
(300k in Western accounts...and 50k/year that is paid by Hartim as a result of Westerns investment there...perhaps a bit more if anything from Creston etc)


noting that Western has no employees

- eg. how much on expenses
- how much eventually paid to Marshall family members (eg. at City Group )


(the only transaction that springs to mind from Western over the last year is selling 200k shares in NBI.....)

back in the 90s (with less assets they managed on about 50 quid in comparison)

and a copy to ISDX regulator
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Listed companies are supposed to report to shareholders what they have spent shareholders money on......I would like Western to do it.

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[e-mail]

cc [e-mail] , [e-mail]

(frrp is the fin. report review panel......if you have a complaint about the accounts of any company....they are one of the main bodies to send a complaint to)

[smithie6] 10/7/2013 10:59

"Mid 50's is the right price."

...Id agree with you there....with a little bit more NAV ...perhaps that might help provide a little stimulus.....(doesnt need much....around 40p just 2500 shares moved the price up 2.5p I think...and another 2500 another +2.5p !)

65% of NAV gives 57p.....and 65% is still quite cheap....

while mid price is currently 47.5p

...discount depends if NAV is rising or stationary (and been rising nicely since end Dec 2012....up to around 88p now (imo) up from 70p at end of Dec. ....26% rise)

[coolen] 09/7/2013 23:57

Be aware that there was a forced seller at 43p last week. Possibly a decaesed estate. Hence the chance of an overhang at 46p.

I'll be in the market myself next week if you guys are not interested. Even for poorly-managed WSE, the discount is too large. Mid 50's is the right price.

[smithie6] 09/7/2013 13:04

2 p or not 2p.....

just checked numbers...
FTSE had risen from 5900 pts (interims to end Dec 2012) to 6800 when I calculated NAV X weeks ago...
then fell to 6100 pts...almost same as 5900...

at 6800 there is/was approx. 2p/share benefit to Western
(gen. portfolio is not FTSE tracker....but as a rough estimate....it is useful to identify, down, up a little, up medium or up a lot...)
that is partly how X weeks ago I had 90-92p and now 88p as NAV

at 90-92p I had 3.2M as gen. portfolio value....approx. 15 large % increase from 2.65M at interim stage...

whereas now after the FTSE fall the gen. portfolio is only perhaps 2.75M.....100k higher...4% higher according to my calcs.
(accuracy is perhaps +/- 100k....peanuts at Western NAV level...)

[smithie6] 09/7/2013 12:47

ah, now read Callums post....
the trade for 10000 could have been his...
...at 47p per share.....looks like a good risk/reward imho...

..with NAV around 88p according to my calc.....accuracy +/- x, hopefully 1p


47p is 53% of NAV...surely too big a discount to last long...depending on what NBI, CRE and SWL sps do

...and if Hartim produces good news could see a few p added on...
..building sector is popular again...so maybe the land held may have more chance of getting building permission...or at least its value may increase...

[smithie6] 09/7/2013 12:29

dissapointing imo that Western doesnt report a NAV at least every month..

something they could easily do imo

[smithie6] 09/7/2013 12:24

10000 traded yesterday at 47p at the bell yesterday....

personally I reckon that was a buy

.....set as a limit order....take it or leave it...
and since the MM has stock on his books ...incl. 10500 from 43p (stressed seller ?, margin call elsewhere ? )...

at the bell he decided to take the trade...

trading 10000 at around mid price....at the bell...imho someone who has some experience....not a beginner. Not so many people trading 10000 western on 1 trade....common PI trades are 2500 or 1-4000 shares

[smithie6] 09/7/2013 12:20

callum
further to Coolen post...
it is worthwhile...or important that any order includes a minimum trade size imo...
to avoid the broker putting 1000 shares thru as part of an order for say 10000 shares..and buying 500 quids worth and paying 30/50 quid for a telephone order...

imho....orders can be placed at the mid price.....2.5p from the buy or sell price...and then if the MM has a matching seller or buyer ....he willing hopefully put thru the trade....or trade anyway using the shares he holds...to then allow him to take on new trades....MMs only make a % if they trade....

normally paying the full spread is not a good idea for Western....but at the moment...I think that 50p is an OK price...but if can get 47.5p that is better...
especially if also trim 2.5p off the spread when sell...
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sometimes in the past Western has been electronically tradeable...but only if the MM puts it up like that....up to him by the looks of it...
OK..only for small volumes for instant trades..
and then if are only paying 5 or 10 quid a trade...then it is OK to move small amounts per trade...
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Quite a volume of shares over last few days for Western...

[rolo7] 08/7/2013 21:48

lfi own 43% of wes also making shares hard to buy!

[coolen] 08/7/2013 21:45

Callum, the broker will have to speak to the jobber.

You will not get a good price by leaving it to the automatic systems.

Latest trades are between 43 and 47p.

Instruct your broker to leave with the jobber a "firm buy limit for one day" at, say, 45 or 46p.

Even if you do not deal immediately, the jobber will then have a note to contact your broker if another seller appears.

[topvest] 08/7/2013 20:07

I suspect 10,000 is quite a lot to buy in one go. I hold mine in a personalised crest account, so would buy more by putting in a limit order. Best to telephone your broker on PLUS trades as they normally have to telephone them through in my experience. Only had to sell PLUS stocks in recent years, and you have to wait your moment for a bit of liquidity. WSE are one of the few "good" companies left on PLUS...lots of dogs and speculative vehicles.

[callumross] 08/7/2013 20:01

Keep wanting to put a few grand into this one but whenever I try to buy shares on TD Waterhouse it either keeps saying that they do not recognise the share epic code or sometimes it does but then says that a firm quote is not available in the stock even though I am only wanting to buy 10000 shares. Anybody able to help? Do I have to contact PLUS direct? Thanks, as it seems that the discount to NAV makes this look very cheap. Used to hold them nay years ago when they did have a stock market quote.

[smithie6] 08/7/2013 11:05

I post trade data ...from ISDX.com
...if anyone ever wants to look at it...now or in future...

looks like a stressed seller at 43p on 5th July...if that price is correct and not 53p.
I wonder if today trade at 46.25p was someone buying some of those shares sold at 43p ...or a new sell

if some recent trades are sells....the MM seems happy to hold them...although has reduced the market price...
I guess that the MM thinks that if takes on shares at 43, 46, 48p that he is unlikely to lose money...noting that the NAV is around 88p and NBI and CRE are doing nicely (NBI of course being the biggie for Western)

1 week in May and price went up 13p....


Date Time Board Type Volume Price
08/07/2013 09:07 GBX/PLUS-exn New 6,000 46.25
05/07/2013 16:38 GBX/PLUS-exn New 2,500 48
05/07/2013 14:36 GBX/PLUS-exn New 10,500 43
05/07/2013 09:53 GBX/PLUS-exn New 5,000 50
01/07/2013 16:33 GBX/PLUS-exn New 2,500 48
28/06/2013 15:15 GBX/PLUS-exn New 2,278 50
25/06/2013 16:24 GBX/PLUS-exn New 1,000 52
19/06/2013 15:35 GBX/PLUS-exn New 414 52
18/06/2013 12:14 GBX/PLUS-exn New 291 52
03/06/2013 16:30 GBX/PLUS-exn New 6,000 53
17/05/2013 10:32 GBX/PLUS-exn New 5,000 53
17/05/2013 09:58 GBX/PLUS-exn New 7,245 55
10/05/2013 15:52 GBX/PLUS-exn New 1,000 50
10/05/2013 13:06 GBX/PLUS-exn New 17,000 51
10/05/2013 12:10 GBX/PLUS-exn New 5,000 55
09/05/2013 16:18 GBX/PLUS-exn New 5,000 49
02/05/2013 11:07 GBX/PLUS-exn New 250 42.2
30/04/2013 11:33 GBX/PLUS-exn New 2,278 42.2
25/04/2013 09:46 GBX/PLUS-exn New 785 42.25

[topvest] 08/7/2013 10:54

WSE will probably remain at a significant discount until PLUS becomes more highly thought of, if it ever does! I think we have to assess our own valuation of WSE, based on dividend flows and ultimate realisation value. A merger with LFI has to make sense at some point in the future, depending on how PLUS develops.

[smithie6] 08/7/2013 10:21

NBI up 5p since NAV calc.....1/2p more to NAV....
so I make NAV 88p now.

(if NAV can get back into 90-100p range...then current 45-50p price looks cheap imo)

[smithie6] 08/7/2013 09:27

My 87.5p calculation versus previous estimate of 90-92p

I was surprised to get only 87.5p....
part of the reason was that I had estimated 10% increase in value of the General Portfolio...approx. 300k...not much under 2p/share

whereas with closer calculations I only got a 4% increase on the general portfolio
..so that is approx. 1p/share reduction in NAV (around 180k)
1/2p was from fiddle factors on topic of cash held, debt held, op. profit...


so 88p versus 89-91p....
and I think another 1p or so perhaps due to fall in price of SWL over last months
giving 88p versus 88-90p

so new calculation was roughly similar to previous one...so I think it is about right....pretty simple calculation so I think difficult to have made any important mistakes. (one key item is that we dont know if Hartim value has risen or fallen....have to wait to see)

(if Hartim produces good news and rises in value...then the discount of 10p (20% of sp) wrt trading at 65% wrt to NAV will vanish in an instant imo....)

[smithie6] 08/7/2013 09:13

goodness me....some other posters !

BTW
..if true Western NAV is around 87.5p ..then ..with market mid price currently at 47.5...the mid price is

54% of the NAV.

ie. at a very large discount.

almost half price...when historically imo Western often trades at around 60-65% of the NAV.

65% of NAV would produce 57p share price ....approx. 10p higher than now,

20% higher than now.

...noting that CRE and NBI charts look quite good....and large amount held in Gen. Portfolio...the large discount to NAV looks overdone imo...
but decided by buyers and sellers

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CHAT. DISCOUNT OF share price TO NAV AT FUNDS
for any newbies to fund discounts .....a very popular fund, especially one where the sector or fund value is expected to do well....can be 0 % or even have to pay more than the NAV (but rare)
bigger funds run by Aberdeen Invs. etc would I think often be priced at around 80% of NAV

if the NAV of a fund is rising...then the NAV discount normally falls...as people want a part of the action ...and jostle to buy the shares !
while if the NAV peaks after months/years of rising....and starts to go sideways or down...then the discount between share price and NAV probably increases as the shares now have few new people wanting a part of the action

[coolen] 07/7/2013 22:40

Sad that WSE was omce a fully listed company, and reasonably rated until recent years.

[rolo7] 07/7/2013 21:29

Thanks for that Smithie6 I hold a few lfi shares so that helps me out.
sp 26.5p and my nav calc for lif is 57p, like the fact the lfi hold fif shares.

[topvest] 07/7/2013 20:52

Interesting. No Hartim accounts for 2012 released yet per Companies House. If this turns around, this will be the major catalyst in my opinion.

[smithie6] 07/7/2013 19:25

NAV history

June 2009 50p
June 2010 61p
June 2011 84p
june 2012 72p
dec 2012 70p
Feb 15th 2013 83.7p
June 2013- estimate 87.5p +/- 2p

Increase from 50p to 87.5p + 4.8p approx divi. = 92.3p from June 2009 to June 2013 now is 42.3p increase

85% wrt 50p NAV in 2009

June 2012 to June 2013 is approx. 15.5p +1.6p aprox divi 17.1p increase

= 24% increase....over 1year

so...June 2012 to June 2013 has been a good year....assuming that no bad news from associates....or if associates have good news ...then even better...

Not too much of a surprise perhaps since 2009 the market was at a minimum.

(4 years . approx. 20% per year.....if simply divide by 4, if someone wants to do a compounding calc. ...feel free !)

the current NAV includes
...SWL expecting that profitability has improved and expecting that results will be better in 2014....hopeful for the share price ..and chart and trades are good over last 4 weeks
NBI and CRE have positive share price charts....steadily moving higher....and not on high P/Es