Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[davvero] 17/11/2019 12:34

@jonwig +@Specto... thanks for the info... good luck

[spectoacc] 17/11/2019 08:14

@elmfield - what's hilarious is how many Woodford-supporting trolls there still are on here. You'd think they'd have twigged by now.

@davvero - seen nothing recent (since end-Aug) on WPCT holdings. Page 22 of the June 2019 Interim Report lists the (then) holdings, pre-IH write-down, and won't be far off as not many transactions since.



Have noted before that with everything nos. 27 to 58 being less than 1% each, it's only really the top say 15 holdings (2% or more of the fund each) that can have much effect. We've already seen the effect of IH of course :)

Struggle to see much realisable value over & above repaying the OD, but that's been the case for a long while. Benevolent AI raised cash from Temasek at half the Woody valuation, so they'll keep going a while longer. Oxford Nano were (meant to be) raising cash too. Autolus is listed & this is the last of it Woody has. Atom Bank has outside investors so are less reliant on Woody, Rutherford have tapped him and borrowed money so aren't in imminent danger.

There's a few I don't know, and a few (eg Ratesetter) I don't particularly rate, but the key is - with the WIM tap now disconnected, which of those can make it to "realisation" without him.

Again, even if a 10-bagger lower down (was about to post that Woody has picked no winners, no multi-baggers, but at one stage both PURP and ALM were going gangbusters - pity he didn't sell into it) then say 0.5% (about position 34) mutli-bagging to 5% isn't much use to shareholders, when just IH will cost more than that.

[jonwig] 17/11/2019 06:40

davvero - he's still the manager till Christmas, so the website (see header). Also the latest Annual Report and Interim Report.

[davvero] 16/11/2019 22:41

I got out of this even about a year ago, and lost touch with it.... Maybe it deserves another look...anyone knows where could I find details of current Patient Trust manager and update of last financials?

[diku] 16/11/2019 19:55

What no more Woody header pictures...

[jonwig] 16/11/2019 16:22

Neil Woodford went from “the man who can’t stop making money” to unleashing Europe’s biggest fund management scandal for a decade. Just over five years after overseeing Britain’s most successful investment company launch, his business is in tatters and will close its doors in the coming weeks.


Stockopedia's analysis of the mix in WEIF between 2014 and 2016, as it went from 'widows-and-orphans' to 'OMG' in just two years.

[daffyjones] 15/11/2019 13:31

Trapped investors in the £3 billion Woodford Equity Income fund are forecast to lose a third of their remaining investment, according to modelling of the wind-up process commissioned by Link.

The modelling outlines a base case forecast of 32.5% losses as the fund is liquidated. Under the worst-case scenario, the fund's value would fall by 42.6%.

In a presentation for Link prepared by Woodford in October in a bid to retain the mandate, it estimated worst-case losses of only 9.3%.

This estimate did not however account for the likely impact of the large scale withdrawals expected. Woodford Investment Management was anticipating the fund would shrink to around £750 million had it reopened. The Woodford presentation also illustrated the portfolio BlackRock and PJT Park Hill inherited from Woodford. Around 23% of the portfolio was held in the hardest-to-trade stocks, estimated as taking between 181 and 365 days or more to offload, down from 32% at the time of suspension.

Link's forecast assumes BlackRock is only able to sell a small number of the fund's largest FTSE 100 stocks at the market price.

Across the vast bulk of the rest of the portfolio, BlackRock and Park Hill will be forced to accept a discounted price as they offload the fund's stocks, according to the modelling. This would apply even to the fund's large holdings in house builders, which account for 17.8% of the fund.

The fund's wind-up is set to add to the mounting losses already suffered by investors trapped in the fund. Since the fund's launch in June 2014 to the announcement of its wind-up last month, investors have lost 18%, while the FTSE All-Share has risen 33%. In the last two years the fund is down 37%.

[chucko1] 15/11/2019 12:30

Ltcm1, far from it. ”Work-out̶1; is where such things go. The effect on the balance sheet is managed according to the expected write-downs as and when they become clear. At this stage, I would be very surprised if there were any impairment taken.

[ltcm1] 15/11/2019 11:21

Specto - all I am thinking is banks have their own rules and there are times they have to dump loans come what may. What they get back may be of secondary importance to clearing a toxic stain from their balance sheet.

Just my guess but I can see the end coming quickly for holders here, hard to see this one alive this time next year.

[ltcm1] 15/11/2019 11:15

It is incredible isn't it. Never in a million years did I see all this coming.

Amigo were at 60p yesterday I saw.

[dr biotech] 15/11/2019 10:45

Non standard finance down 17% today.
Eddie Stobart group seem to have accepted a low ball rescue offer at less than 50% of the last quoted price.

At one point I had about 50k across WEIF and WPCT, which is a significant amount for me, didn’t dodge a bullet, dodged a howitzer.

[spectoacc] 15/11/2019 10:15

@ltcm1 - I don't think a firesale is in their interests. They already have say over what's sold, what's bought, and what any money is used for. My guess is a temporary roll in Jan but repayment when eg the rest of AUTO gets dumped.

[ltcm1] 15/11/2019 10:09

The gearing must be off the scale here now!

Are there any mechanisms by which Northern Trust can seize control of the assets??? Or can they sell the debt to someone who could do the dirty work?

In other words what is the overdraft secured against???

[my retirement fund] 15/11/2019 09:09

Which one ? The one about buying this decrepit bag of spanners at 62p or the one about the e-by-gym Fishlake residents?

[brummieloser] 14/11/2019 20:10

I thought your post was very funny, Pete. Obviously spectoacc and Psychowinnie have very thin skins.

[spectoacc] 14/11/2019 19:46

Lol @Psychochomper, brilliant. And still supporting Woodford no doubt (not unfiltering muppets).

A fool and his money. Particularly enjoyed:


"In the longer term I shall make a lot of money on WPCT. You silly pompous little trolls, (like you spectoacc!) currently creaming your pants, won't."

[psychochomper] 14/11/2019 19:43

Petethepict, it’s not easy determining what scores more on the stupidometer: the post attached below or the fact that you still show up after having written same.


petethepict - 04 Jun 2019 - 08:50:05 - 6733 of 11151 ::: WOODFORD PATIENT CAPITAL TRUST ::: - WPCT
I bought a nice little wodge at just under 63p this morning on the basis that the shorters would probably close having feasted a bit. I don't know whether they have or not, but I am content anyway. What you amateur trolls call "averaging down", I call "buying on weakness".

In the longer term I shall make a lot of money on WPCT. You silly pompous little trolls, (like you spectoacc!) currently creaming your pants, won't.

I think that's very funny. LOL

P.S. There'll be storms on the way, no doubt about that, and you can indulge in your short-term gloats then, naturally.

PPS Nobody here apart from said flappers cares about the open-ended funds. I genuinely, though, feel sorry for the little-old-men-in-dens (like jonwig, topvest) who don't really deserve this treatment.

....

Anyway, for us “amateur trolls”, could you explain what is the route you are following now to make the “lot of money on WPCT” that you previously thought you would. Clearly my own short position from 67p was a combination of ignorance and luck. So lucky, in fact, that I traded my den for a pen.

[petethepict] 14/11/2019 17:26

Typical Yorkshire fucwits (just like jonwig and Spectocack) moving to a place called Fishlake and then being surprised by flooding!! What were they expecting?

And they expect handouts from the intelligent people in the rest of the UK to help them. Ee lad, don't be so daft...

[spectoacc] 14/11/2019 14:46

And still - even at 56p - a Not Asset Value. Was 89p on WEIF's gating.

[jonwig] 14/11/2019 14:43

Deeper and down
Down down deeper and down
Down down deeper and down
Down down deeper and down
Get down ...

[porsche1945] 14/11/2019 00:42

Not looking like there will be much left for schroders to salvage. Jeez an even bigger mess than brexit.

[hsfinch] 13/11/2019 23:34

Wow...firmly in the 20s now. What a disaster for investors.