Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 07/11/2019 13:40

Hour and 20 mins long! Anything in it we've not all already said?

Edit - not too impressed so far, but will keep listening. Is trying to tell me what a great investor Neil used to be, rather than pointing out he generally underperformed but for two massive and successful calls - no tech in 99/00, and no banks in 08.

...And investors aren't "stuck" in the Patient Capital Fund -they can sell anytime they like.

[solomon] 07/11/2019 13:36

Very useful video from Stockopedia:

[spectoacc] 07/11/2019 12:01

BP cashflow is great, but renewables - are you sure? Would be like buying the tobaccos for next gen - growing, but miniscule part of the business.

You'd pick the oils over Woody's sub-prime lenders mind.

[jonwig] 07/11/2019 11:02

@ Spec - I know it's off-topic, but I'm seriously considering buying BP, for its investment in renewables. As usual, the protesters and the Labour Party are behind the curve.

Not yet, as I want more clarity on what our next government will look like.

[1oughton] 07/11/2019 10:20

Mark Barnett seen two funds of his downgraded by morningstar - more Woodford fall out

'Concerns about the funds high exposure to smaller and illiquid companies have sparked the change as well an increasing number of stock selection issues which have caused analysts to have a lower level of conviction in the fund.'

[spectoacc] 07/11/2019 09:37

BlackRock still dribbling out PFG, done well to offload IMO.

[ltcm1] 06/11/2019 18:17

As with so many things Woodford, the buzz around Oxford Nano was that their only competitor was valued at $60BN, so on that basis it made the £1.5BN look trivial.

How many of these cleverly weaved stories did we hear over the years from Woodford's empire??? World domination only seemed a tantalisingly short distance away, be it plastic pallets or washing machines, a cat allergy cure, capturing the Salmon fertilisation market, the estate agency market, the male pill, a new jet engine, cold fusion, an algorithm that would save billions on clinical trials, the list went on...

He was like Paul Nicholls turning up mob handed for the Tingle Creek!!!

[timnet] 06/11/2019 18:15

My original question was:
"Anyone know if there are any other significant revaluations still to be made by Link, and if so which ones?"

The only direct responses have been:
"But in terms of your question - ie other significant revaluations - they'll likely occur on WEIF's impending sale of the unlisteds/unicorns. Some suggestion that might be only another c.20% or so off." (SpectoAcc)

and

"The largest position is Oxford Nanopore - worth 8p on NAV. The most recent fund raise valued the business at £1.5bn. Yet it has sales of a mere £33m and most recently generated an EBIT loss of £63m. It has enough cash to last around about 12 months." (JakNife)

Thank you for these comments.
Anyone else care to add to this?

[spectoacc] 06/11/2019 16:42

Had an interesting "debate" with someone over on CityWire re "What if one of these co's WEIF is being forced to sell turns out to be worth billions". They've already been putting several of them in the NAV at billions :))

To be fair, Oxford Nano don't seem too bad a business, albeit another "Oxford industrial estate" one. But not at a made up 10 figs.

[harijan] 06/11/2019 16:41

Neigh, neigh, Dobbin.

[spectoacc] 06/11/2019 16:03

@timnet - largely agree with @ltcm1 but there are a few listed holdings (Autolus for eg), and some that have a reasonable amount of value supported by other investors (eg Atom Bank). But most of the junk (listed it in a post somewhere above) is either valued by later funding rounds from other WIM entities, or finger-in-air nonsense from Link.

The issue for WPCT isn't so much the Not Asset Value, as the debt. If that OD doesn't get rolled over - and even if it does, as it won't be rolled permanently - where will WPCT raise the money to pay it off? They've already sold much that has a realisable value (eg OSI, half AUTO).

Also worth remembering Woody's investment record - beyond bad in WEIF, no reason to suspect there's winners in WPCT.

But in terms of your question - ie other significant revaluations - they'll likely occur on WEIF's impending sale of the unlisteds/unicorns. Some suggestion that might be only another c.20% or so off.

But don't think that makes WPCT good value - sticking to my final value of 0-20p.

Amazing that Woody still has supporters on here, after all that's been predicted - and has happened.

[ltcm1] 06/11/2019 15:47

timnet the NAV is a pointless, meaningless number because it only ever represents hope value here. None of these companies pay dividends or even have any assets beyond their labs and company formation, which admittedly do have some value on the open market.

The only basis for buying into this fund is you have done your numbers on future returns - but clearly that is all but impossible here.

I think you have to believe in the science to invest, there isn't any traditional way of valuing what they are doing, much like with the dot-com companies.

[mochyn] 06/11/2019 14:20

The trouble with old speccy is that he never says anything that has not been said before, and better, by previous posters!

BTW I wonder what name he was parading under before May this year when this moniker first appeared here. He was boasting that he was posting here long long before that with such accurate prescience. He was lying then or he's lying now.

[the air marshall] 06/11/2019 14:00

Spectoacc seems to be unaware that nobody takes him seriously despite his many thousands of "posts". Perhaps he believes that the deafening silence is a sign of approbation.

[spectoacc] 06/11/2019 08:30

Can't deny I like RUTH - not on valuation, but because if Woodford fools are going to lose their cash on anything, I'd much rather it was in building cancer treatment centres than eg pallets with microchips, or sub-prime lenders, or IH.

Slightly amazed by this line tho:

"Our largest shareholder continued to support the business with further equity injections of £35m in H1 with a further £12.5m received in early September."

And absolutely no mention of it no longer being the largest shareholder - the WEIF holding now being with Link. Nor any mention of future funding commitments. Nor of WIM getting wound down and closed within next 3 months or so.

[jonwig] 06/11/2019 08:25

RUTH H1:



Increased turnover, increased losses, net current liabilities of £9m but a new debt facility.

[spectoacc] 06/11/2019 08:09

@chucko1 = glad I'm not the only one with a dim view of Schroders! Tho as said before, I'd probably do the same if I were them - a guaranteed £3-5m pa, all the blame to be heaped on Woody for all that goes wrong.

Could that OD still stymie WPCT? Probably. Intrigued to know who's doing the renegotiating, Neil or the WPCT Board. Who is the more inept?

[chucko1] 06/11/2019 08:06

It’s not only the eccentricity of Woody, but I fear for Schroders’ well-being also. Maybe my own, too, as I’ve barely stopped laughing since they decided to get involved (to whatever degree, in fact), and the share price of WPCT jumped 33%.

As one keeps saying, what is bought is bought. Everything spent and more. What has been written up 357% is now written back down by a greater amount. How many more are lined up perched over the edge of a valuation cliff?

I really ought to have stopped laughing, but then that analyst at Stifel springs to mind and I’m off again.