Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[ltcm1] 16/10/2019 10:04

Daffy another he couldn't let go of is the 14% in Kier, held in the Income Focus. Goodness knows his average buying price there...

[ltcm1] 16/10/2019 09:56

MRF - to add you your thoughts I think it was the case a lot of the WPCT stuff was brought to Woodford by a guy at Cenkos.

The circularity of it all has been deeply concerning. Woodford was effectively playing a game of Jenga with his funds, his crossholdings, heavy holdings, the boosting of NAV in illiquids through minor funding rounds.

Had he been able to pick a modicum of winners he would have been able to keep the show on the road for years.

[pugugly] 16/10/2019 09:27

Daffy re 10844 - Interesting - If any value in any of those you list might be some interesting buying prices BUT for the life of me cannot see any that might be of interest even at a 10% say discount to current prices -


However I am aure somone may disagree and suggest some offer excellent potential at current prices.

[my retirement fund] 16/10/2019 09:08

Spec WPCT is a side show and was clearly a special purpose vehicle set up to bolster the NAVs of worthless crud in the Income fund, also to dump some of it when various tranches of cash needed to be raised for tge income fund. Its that fund where he and his ilk have made serious money for themselves. Don't forget that billions of pounds have flowed in and out of it over the years.

[daffyjones] 16/10/2019 09:00

With the flood of RNSs announcing the change of manager, we can see just how much dross Woody was still holding on to in WEIF, despite having had over four months to reposition the portfolio.

20% of 4D Pharma - down 88% from peak
15% of Provident - down 85% from peak
20% of Redde - down 45%
20% of Arix bioscience - down 49%
10% of Burford - down 60%
22% of Tissue Regenix - down 92%
10% of Crest Nicholson - down 36%
10% of Paypoint - down 25%
22% of Allied Minds - down 94%
15% of Sensyne - down 45%
23% of Eddie Stobart - shares still suspended
20% of Synairgen - down 43%
20% of Mercia - down 62%

He just couldn't bear to let go of these losers. Still totally deluded that one day the market would be proved wrong and he would be proved right, and they would rocket back up in price to their "true value."
Honestly, looking at that list, a monkey with a pin randomly selecting shares would have had a far better portfolio

[spectoacc] 16/10/2019 08:57

@MRF - I fear you credit Woody with too much intelligence. His grotesque hubris meant that he was so sure he'd make 10%+ pa on WPCT, his fees are effectively zero for running it (just some minor dealing costs).

The illiquid point is a good one - buy rubbish, fund it smaller at double the price, hey presto - 100% rise in NAV.

And he would have got away with it, if not for that pesky inability to pick any winners whatsoever.

[my retirement fund] 16/10/2019 08:53

Did it ever occur to anyone that Woodfords game all along was to build worthless illiquid funds massively overvalued that could be very very difficult if not impossible to ever redeem so as to ensure a magic circle of them could enrich themselves for many many years ?

[spectoacc] 16/10/2019 08:49

@daffy - I'd love to know the terms! WIM is clearly going bust IMO, can Woody hold off coughing up for 3 months, then say "sue me"?

There's further commitments beyond Rutherford I believe?

[daffyjones] 16/10/2019 08:47

Yes, PP's contractual agreement was with WIM. Now that WIM is going out of business, PP will be wanting to draw down the remaining £40m of their commitment ASAP - the only way WIM could pay would be from WPCT now that WEIF has been removed from its management.

[spectoacc] 16/10/2019 08:41

A key question is where do the commitments fall - WIM, I believe, and WIM only really has WPCT left, and only for the next 3 months.

If I was Proton Partners (sorry: Rutherford), I'd be triggering all I had left ASAP. And it'd be WPCT having to fund it.

The Unicorns are clearly usellable IMO, as widely predicted - hence Link's action the day before the "2nd closing date" for the auction - so I'd discount not only IH, but the others too. There's residual value in some Benevolent - as shown by Temasek's investment at half the previous valuation - but shifting that size is clearly a big problem.

IH is worthless IMO, we all know that.

Rutherford's value is way, way lower than book, IMO.

Most of the smaller, early-stage junk in WPCT is - unsellable junk.

That leaves the remaining chunk in Autolus and - what else? Is there enough to repay the OD? Who will take it on, and what will they charge? How will they even get paid?

Just a reminder - Top 10 in WPCT, as of 31 Aug:

Rutherford
Benevolent
Atom Bank (dunno)
Oxford Nano (not bad, IMO)
Industrial Heat (lol)
Immunocore
Kymab
Mission Therapeutics
Ratesetter (must have some value)
Autolus (the sole potentially realisable value I can see in the Top 10)

OD, running costs, new manager fees, commitments.

If the OD was due in Jan 2021, rather than in 3 months, it'd be less of an issue - soldier on, hope for a "realisation event". [Edit - except the covenants have had to be relaxed already.] And if some could be funded through by WEIF as previously. And if WEIF wasn't going to be selling the lot itself soon.

Next event for WPCT - watching BlackRock trying to dump WEIF's 9% shareholding.

[diku] 16/10/2019 08:35

Ok 14p better...anybody for 13p?..

[spectoacc] 16/10/2019 08:31

Why? What possible winners does it have that might justify 15p?

[blueball] 16/10/2019 08:28

Looking to buy at 15p.

[rcturner2] 16/10/2019 07:53

Quite a long section on the Today program this morning about Woodford, which was interesting.

One of the things they said was that an analysis of WEIF shows that 30% of the holdings are in stocks that will take 6-12 months to liquidate. Unreal.

[spectoacc] 16/10/2019 07:22

"Since the suspension of his flagship fund, Woodford was ‘running’; this portfolio of unquoted stocks in name only. Link had taken charge, appointing PJT Park Hill Associates to manage the sale process, with decisions such as the price that would be accepted taken away from Woodford.
The second closing for offers and bids for these assets, which include all of Woodford Equity Income’s unquoted holdings, but also illiquid quoted stocks like Theravance Biopharma (TBPH.O), Rutherford Health (RUTH.NXX) and Sensyne Health (SENSS), was due to take place tomorrow.
But evidently this was not soon enough for Link to believe this portfolio, roughly £700 million in size, could be shifted from the fund by December, the target it had set for a reopening of the fund."

So - quelle surprise - today was the dealine for bids for the Unicorns. Link knew what those bids were likely to be. Link sacks Woody the day before.

What - you mean - no one wanted Industrial Heat?

Or wanted to pay anywhere remotely near Not Asset Value for any of the others?

[spectoacc] 16/10/2019 07:01

Great news to wake up to but once again - WHY has it taken so long to defenestrate Woodford?

And one thing I'm not clear on - is Woody gone from WPCT overnight, rather than the 3 month notice period?

And - who now holds the future funding commitments to the likes of Rutherford?

Edit - seems Woody is going to serve out his 3 months on WPCT, and IIF resignation isn't instant.

Will he cough up the wind-up fees on WIM?

[essentialinvestor] 15/10/2019 23:44

William, there is also a chunk of net debt here, might be worth keeping in mind.

[tim 3] 15/10/2019 23:22

Even of you have no belief in charts just look at the chart in the first post and ask yourself if that looks like the bottom.

[barnetpeter] 15/10/2019 22:50

No. The value of the unquoted held here is unknown but I guess it may all be dumped in a fire sale.

[williamcooper104] 15/10/2019 22:35

At current share price is there value? Can you do a sum of parts valuation on a couple of holdings - get to 34p NAV on a few investments?

[18bells] 15/10/2019 22:19

Ive lost more money investing in woodford than when i got burgled.

[tim 3] 15/10/2019 22:18

EJ

Absolutely like most with that level arrogance they never admit they are wrong till its forced upon them.