Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[skatersav] 13/9/2019 10:46

“Needs a line with Actual NAV!”

That’s the x-axis! :)

[rcturner2] 13/9/2019 09:11

So £40m of assets have just disappeared overnight?

Unbelievable.

[buywell3] 13/9/2019 08:57

best header pic so far cos it is a chart

and it actually implies the share could go back to 50p IF the NAV stabilizes

NAV however note is NOT doing that of late

[biggest bill] 13/9/2019 08:55

I think the investment being written down is almost certainly Benevolent AI. This company is currently raising funds and Link have probably been informed of the price of the new fund raise. It would be pretty embarrassing if it was Industrial Heat because that was written down so recently. The correct value for Industrial Heat is of course absolutely nothing but I expect this true valuation of Industrial Heat to be kicked down the road for a few more months.

[jonwig] 13/9/2019 08:40

My squiggly line just about fits: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[spectoacc] 13/9/2019 08:37

Needs a line with Actual NAV!

[jonwig] 13/9/2019 08:32

Dr B - thank you! I've put the 5-year chart up, ie. since inception. The light dawned around mid-2017, when a persistent discount appeared.

The web page chart is dynamic and updates itself, but mine might not. You can also do charts for a shorter timescale:

[spectoacc] 13/9/2019 08:22

Am assuming whichever it is (& I still think Benevolent, which much, much more to come from pretty much all of those, but particularly IH. Still - at least Rutherford has a cash tap?) will be reflected heavily in WEIF valuation too.

[dr biotech] 13/9/2019 08:21

Can get the chart here. Not sure that it works though.

hxxps://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/w/woodford-patient-capital-trust-ord-gbp0.01

They also list the top 10 holdings - I'm not sure how up to date that is, but you'd hope it'd be reasonably accurate given the close relationship between HL and Woodford.

For a 4p drop in NAV that equates to 5% of the fund. Its not going to be Autolus as that value is easily found. Its probably Benevolent, IH, or Oxford Nanopore. My bet is its one of the first two.

Benevolentai 9.81%
Oxford Nanopore Tech Ord 8.32%
Autolus Therapeutics PLC ADR 8.26%
Crossco (1337) Plc 8.07%
Rutherford Health plc ORD GBP0.001 7.34%
IH HLDGS INTL LTD 6.74%
Immunocore Ltd Series 5.64%
Oxford Sciences Plc 4.62%
IH HLDGS INTL LTD 2.97%

[elmfield] 13/9/2019 07:38

Volsung obviously meant the NAV,

[spectoacc] 13/9/2019 07:37

The NAV, yes.

[volsung] 13/9/2019 07:36

Double bottom on chart. Should see 60p soon

[jonwig] 13/9/2019 07:15

Yes, here:



but it's essentially the Morningstar chart, which I can't drop into here.

[scrapheap] 13/9/2019 07:05

Aic website will have such charts

[jonwig] 13/9/2019 07:04

Citywire says WEIF funded RUTH:



The shares are being issued at £1.76 each, below the range of £2.10 to £2.45 at which they nominally trade.

Recent Woodford Investment Management filings suggest Link Fund Solutions, administrator of all Woodford's funds, is valuing the shares at £2.

So this is probably the company which is responsible for yesterday's NAV announcement. Also:

Rutherford can still draw down a further £32.5 million in funding from Woodford before the end of August next year.

They better be quick: WIM won't exist by then ... by Christmas, even?

[jonwig] 13/9/2019 06:46

CC2014 - the only place I've found with a share price vs NAV chart is this one:



but the image doesn't seem to be transferable. If there are any other sites, please let me know.

[henchard] 12/9/2019 23:31

CC2014,

Yes, the rock and the hard place, unquoted limit and gearing limit.

When WPCT announced last Friday that its overdraft provider now has a veto on Woodford making any further investments, it said the overdraft was £113.7m, which is 12.5p a share, while NAV that day was 73.1p, giving, as the RNS stated, gearing of 17.1%.

Today's reported NAV was 72.85p, but with the 4p hit we're looking at 68.85p. If the overdraft is still 12.5p a share as reported last Friday, gearing goes up to 18.2%.

Back in June, when the board announced it had "agreed a schedule with Woodford Investment Management Ltd to reduce the level of gearing to below 10% within six months," gearing was 16.8%.

A quarter of the way through the six months, far from reducing gearing, Woodford has so far managed to increase it from 16.8% to 18.2%.

[cc2014] 12/9/2019 23:05

Tomorrow the published NAV will begin with a 6 and what we really need is Jon to find a way to get a chart of the NAV into the header.

On the one hand I guess this is one way to try and keep the unquoted percentage below the limit by valuing them at reality. However, on the other the question of gearing is going to raise it's head again.

[psychochomper] 12/9/2019 21:53

It will be interesting to see the price movement tomorrow on this news. Are these NAV cuts now fully discounted in the price, or will this news still come as a shock to some?

Nothing at all would surprise me given owners of this stock such as the cretins on this board who purportedly have been buying on the way down. They’ve had a chance to avoid this garbage were they to have listened to the more enlightened posters here - good God, man, they’ve had two sodding years to get out. Are they incapable of learning anything?

I missed a further short at 48p yesterday and 47p today. Doing other things. You can’t win them all, but at least I’m not long (partly because I have an IQ over 60).

[dr biotech] 12/9/2019 21:23

I should add that whilst I think oxford nanopore are spending a lot of money, it will be a rare winner. Valuation of course is another matter

[topvest] 12/9/2019 20:01

Going to zero.

[henchard] 12/9/2019 18:55

4p = over £36m, but still the tip of an iceberg.

Agree SpectoAcc and Jonwig, we'll see a slow attrition of the NAV. Like the banks post-GFC, imo, slowly deflating their balance sheets, knowing damn well they'd be insolvent if they took the writedowns in one hit.

[jonwig] 12/9/2019 18:40

Only 4p? Is this the new incrementalism - small steps so nobody notices.