Woodford Patient Capital Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 16/9/2019 11:06

Blimey, published NAV now 69p. Still a work of total fiction, but starting to respect the laws of gravity. I'm sticking by my 10-20p return (at best) and quite possibly zero. The share price still offers a great exit versus intrinsic value in my view.

[pjj71] 16/9/2019 10:10

The rate the NAV is crashing this will barely be able to pay for the Board soon... lets hope a white knight takes it over soon... what a dog

[rexrandi] 16/9/2019 09:15

mi master jonwig ses that wini has made a rite idiot of hisself on something cauled BUR.

probley needs a nice hump but he cant even afford a kennel ses jonwig.


Woof Woof

rex t'dog

[pete_bane] 16/9/2019 09:07

14 silly little winnitroll posts in a row!

They don't seem to be having much effect these days, do they? Hence the desperation,one supposes.

[jonwig] 16/9/2019 08:34

Spec - at least three of the four holdings have real potential, and any write-offs would (from your quote) amount to no more than ~10%. They have said they are keen to monetise these and return cash.

GBP could be a downer: a rise of 10% or so vs USD is perfectly possible on a Brexit deal. (Even May's deal would pass now!)

[spectoacc] 16/9/2019 08:23

ALM results a week on Thurs, what chance more write-offs...

Has been below 40p, is it worth chasing at nearly 60p?

But generally agree - tho don't hold. CRS's presence has been a plus.

Isn't in FTSE350 anymore so Woody will surely have to sell WEIF's ALM holding at least.

From CRS:
"...The Fund notes that the share price of Allied Minds continues to trade at a very material discount to its estimated net asset value. The Fund attributes this to the continued excessive level of central operating expenses for a company now in run-off where four investments plus parent-level cash account for more than 90% of asset value and the board's failure to cancel the egregious Phantom Plan that ignores all portfolio losses when calculating management bonuses.
The Fund believes that the scale of share price discount has not been addressed by the board of Allied Minds and therefore intends to take appropriate action."

So ALM has reasons to be cheap, before considering the WIM holding, which CRS very strangely neglects to mention.

IPO a better bet, based on NAV discount & spread of holdings?

[jonwig] 15/9/2019 17:24

Been looking at ALM.

1) The 2018 AR shows a significant accounting change: 2017 NA were $12m, 2018 $123m! This isn't a sudden magical uplift, it's explainesd in the accounts (mainly a change in calculating the non-controlling interests). So we're at 51 c/sh, or 41p.
(The auditors seemed relaxed about this.)

2) Crystal Amber in its recent results (13/09) estimates the current NAV to be between 95p and 105p after two positive fundraisings from investee companies. They'll have done their homework - they hold 6.9%.

3) The high cost structure has been dumped (Crystal Amber pressure).

4) ALM might well be suffering from the Woodford overhang effect: WIM still holds over 21% in two funds. Maybe it won't clear anytime soon, and could drag the share price down in the meantime.

Judging by such as Autolus and Prothena, waiting for news that he's done misses the bounce. A new manager of WPCT could well keep the shares, WEIF probably can't.

All told, this might be one way to make money out of Woody.

[cynicalbear2016] 15/9/2019 16:23

IP Group can still cornerstone the next Ox Nano round at silly prices

[sweet karolina2] 15/9/2019 14:27

Spec,

Just guessing which will be the next of many chickens to come home to roost for WPCT NAV. Nanopore makes clear it needs to raise money in 2019. With Woody unable to cornerstone it at stupid prices, another halving of it total "MCap" is on the cards in a couple of months time. Of course IH could take another hit as that is still massively over valued and must be needing cash in the not too distant future - I think it won't raise any and go to zero. RUTH is massively over valued, but whilst cash can still be extracted from WEIF it will be much longer before reality has to strike there, the problem will be WEIF trying to offload its stake, which I just do not see happening.

[spectoacc] 15/9/2019 11:27

@sk2 - don't forget Rutherford. And in WPCT's case - also a large tail of likely-bust-without-more-money-which-they're-not-now-getting-from-Woody stocks.

The WPCT Board need to come out and say whether and when they're ditching Mr W.

Also - IFF has been an appallingly dreadful performner even without the unicorns, the unlisteds, the early-stage cr*p. Woody's problem isn't just the unicorns & unlisteds.

[sweet karolina2] 15/9/2019 11:24

Nanopore next for the knife:



So far IH and BAI have only been trimmed back and not kitchen sinked to the level they should be (Zero in the case of IH).

[spectoacc] 15/9/2019 11:14

Per 10226 - Benevolent, surprise surprise. But - still a $1bn valuation, they've done well to raise cash at that level IMO. I don't see Benevolent succeeding, but good luck to them.

IH, on the other hand... We all know what we think that's worth.

Rutherford I'm more than happy to see splurging Woody's cash on cancer treatment centres. Woodford investors are going to lose it anyway, it may as well go on something useful.

[ak47high] 15/9/2019 11:09

hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/neil-woodfords-benevolent-ai-sees-valuation-slashed-q5nchp2ds

[jonwig] 14/9/2019 12:17

Citywire lists the possibles (there are five of them):



... and Numis is damning, suggesting some investors will have written all of these to zero.

[cynicalbear2016] 14/9/2019 12:16

SK - I responded on Tom’s website with my thoughts.

On the more general point about sale of assets in WPCT. Think there have been three substantial sales to reduce debt, Prothena, Ultrahaptics and Oxford Science Innovation. Only the first was quoted

If you ignore Rutherford, WPCT’s holdings of unquoteds is over 80% although the recent write downs are helping reduce that percentage

[sweet karolina2] 13/9/2019 19:14

SMCN,

Hopefully we will get a portfolio update with results but it may be at report date rather than current. The fund will be closer to 80% unlisted than 66%, if you treat RUTH (proton as was) as unlisted because it might as well be then that is over 80%.

The bank debt has been paid down to some extent, as WPCT has no source of income that can only have been achieved through selling and it is unlikely that much unlisted has been able to be sold.

[smcni1968] 13/9/2019 17:44

wow just looked at the annual report i didn't realize 2/3 of this was unquoted. interim report should be out next week based on the date of the last one

[smcni1968] 13/9/2019 17:36

Even without the write down the nav seems to have been sinking daily even though Kier and other dogs have moved up a lot

[essentialinvestor] 13/9/2019 17:22

Tommy Cooper's classic line may be more apt - just like that.

[jonwig] 13/9/2019 15:08

@ skatersav - the x-axis the actual NAV? You mean about 35p?

[psychochomper] 13/9/2019 10:46

Why “unbelievable”? You’ve been told for ages that NW is untrustworthy, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise. Unless you are unable to follow the line of logic on this board, or you listen to the wrong people (which really picks you out as a complete buffoon).

Lots more will “disappearR21; soon. Paul Daniels didn’t do just one show, did he?