Wincanton Share Discussion Threads

[volvo] 05/11/2020 08:11

This sounded interesting.

In addition, we are in final stage discussions with HMRC over a major extension to our existing contract that would lead to us managing Inland Border Facilities at the end of the Brexit transition period.

[discodave45] 05/11/2020 07:54

Margins have been hit by the looks of it.So about £38m - £40m year end pre tax (Not £70m!!). 26p eps, Historic rating 7.5 (say 8) is 208. Rerated to 10 £2.60.Impressed with rev so perhaps they are starting to grow. Previously very little growth which along with pension deficit has IMO been their Achilles heel in terms of ratings.

[rivaldo] 05/11/2020 07:51

DD45, as I pointed out above, the £63m net cash benefited from £55m of deferrals as specifically noted in today's numbers, so this is still an impressive turnaround even without those deferrals.

[celeritas] 05/11/2020 07:48

This is surely the start of the re-rate.

[discodave45] 05/11/2020 07:46

Any views on H1 numbers?, IMO underlying pre tax circa £18m to £20mRev, depends on how much they have improved margins, say from 4% to 6% would give Rev of about £330m.Also, any thoughts on how they managed to go from net debt of £10m end March to £60m net cash end Sept?.Would guess it was due to a combination of the Vat deferral (£30m), government furlough (2,500 employees) say another £30m plus some deferrals to creditors.

[netcurtains] 05/11/2020 07:45

After Covid - Brexit.
This is a great story bubbling under the radar:

In addition, we are in final stage discussions with HMRC over a major extension to our existing contract that would lead to us managing Inland Border Facilities at the end of the Brexit transition period

Then Divdend reinstated
Then Dark Stores
Then "better than expected"

[volvo] 05/11/2020 07:40

With the goodbye of the container business and announced today the Pullman business, we are becoming a real modern logistic player with many of UK's leading retail companies as customers....with a very old and tired pe rating of about 6.

Read these Wincanton 6 months results in comparison to the 12 months results of Clipper Logistics, and they are are fairly similar. So why oh why are they deemed to be worth more than DOUBLE....it could argued that WIN is worth more than Clipper.

Divi, cash, fast growth, right time right place...300p short term ie days imo.

[dplewis1] 05/11/2020 07:29

Yeah divi restate is great news. Hanging onto these

[s34icknote] 05/11/2020 07:28

Stonking results !!Div and loads of cash Eps 13p with covid disruption. !!

[rivaldo] 05/11/2020 07:18

Lovely - "Good momentum into H2 - results for FY20/21 expected to be materially ahead of current market expectations"....

Plus dividends being resumed with a 2.85p interim divi.

£63.3m of net cash now. Even after paying £55m of deferred VAT etc in H2 this will still have been an impressive turnaround.

"Digital & eFulfilment delivered strong growth".

And this sounds tasty:

"In the public sector, the Group has secured framework agreements with Crown Commercial Services (CCS) to ensure that we can bid for future Government work directly. In addition, we are in final stage discussions with HMRC over a major extension to our existing contract that would lead to us managing Inland Border Facilities at the end of the Brexit transition period."

The VAT/excise duty dispute with HMRC is unfortunate, but WIN are confident that they will have no liability.

Overall a great update which could initiate a very nice re-rating.

[mikedon1946] 04/11/2020 16:06

bit of profit taking dropped sell back to 225p tomorrow assuming results as good expected, the outlook is painted rosy, then expect selling price to be about 240p hope it exceeds expectations.
If dividend declared expect even better

[netcurtains] 04/11/2020 13:09

I'm off to the pub in a few minutes - for a meal ..
Cheers Net!

ps so far today all the big trades have been BUYS - I think that is a reasonably good sign that Results tomorrow Nov 5th should be "better than expected"....

[s34icknote] 04/11/2020 12:34

I think we should find a pub that's still open !

[netcurtains] 04/11/2020 11:36

Thanks sicknote. After the results what is planned? Will CEO do a vox-talk etc? Perhaps discussions with brokers? We obviously dont want a "one hit wonder" - if we are looking for a re-rating the CEO will need to chase after it a lot with a big post results push around the city and media. Perhaps with even more director buys and some more news flow ...

=================
ps apologies:
Got market down for vox-talk: its voxmarkets:

[s34icknote] 04/11/2020 11:03

Need this to do a rch net. Well done on that one .

[netcurtains] 04/11/2020 09:34

£3 a share would only give WIN a historic PE of 10
Clipper CLG has PE of 30 and Royal Mail RMG PE of 15
So £3 might be realistic but we can hope for £4 without seeming to greedy.
=============================
PS
Sorry I appear to have been marked down for grammar: Should be "too" not "to"

[volvo] 04/11/2020 09:30

Yes its strange how Wincanton has been ignored for months even though its told the markets twice that trading was stronger than forecast, right up to the eve of results.

What I am anticipating is a set of results that will mirror the presentation of Clipper Logistics in style, highlighting its strong growth in e-fulfilment, strong growth in virtually all the main super markets logistic chain, big up for Waitrose 'dark' store, B and Q, Screwfix etc....all quite modern and glitzy.

Couple this with vital construction and infrastructure projects which Wincanton are leading, and there will surely be more as the government spends us out of recession.

Plenty of cash on the hip, great prospects going forward.

300p imo can be achieved even by a modest rerating short term.

[rivaldo] 04/11/2020 08:49

Buying coming in at 220p now...looking encouraging.

[jeff h] 03/11/2020 19:22

Yes Volvo, the point I was trying to make was that during the first lockdown the Construction / Building related areas of the business suffered whereas I would think this will be much less severe in the forthcoming lockdown. Also the containers business has been recently disposed of which was another area which was hit by the covid restrictions.

Covid 19 Update from the Preliminary results:-


"....In our closed book two-person home delivery network we were required to cease operations at the end of March in line with safety guidelines, resulting in a significant negative impact on profitability during the shutdown. The service restarted in May and initial restart volumes have been encouraging.

Our Construction business (representing 11.5% of Group revenue in FY19/20) saw major parts of the network closed at the start of April, due to the voluntary shutdown of many construction sites and builders' merchants. Revenue during April was down by around 70%. There was some benefit from construction sites starting up activity in May with an increase in revenue, but volumes were still over 50% down on the prior year and indications are that the return of volumes will be gradual. Despite swift action to reduce the variable elements of the cost base, the reduction in revenue had a substantial impact on profitability in these largely closed book contracts.

Container volumes and Pullman Fleet Services ('PFS') revenue continue to be below expectations, with the container business impacted in April by reduced traffic from Asia and latterly by reduced consumer demand in the UK......"

[volvo] 03/11/2020 17:01

jeff....so are all building sites and construction (Hinkley europes largest building site), along with M and S, Morrisons, Asda, Sainsburys, Waitrose, Heinz and everything else included anything e-fulfilment...no Wincanton are in their element.

[netcurtains] 03/11/2020 16:27

Some nice chunky buys going in. Hopefully this is just the start of a good bull run.

[jeff h] 03/11/2020 15:57

Wickes, B&Q, Screwfix - all WIN clients are to stay open during the second lockdown I read

[netcurtains] 03/11/2020 15:03

breaking news re: vaccine:

[netcurtains] 03/11/2020 14:37

I wonder if this Investors Chronicle news item is relevant for WINS too:

[volvo] 03/11/2020 10:36

The new man at the top gets it, get rid of all the old non performing stuff and concentrate on new technology and form a clear market leader, new customers queuing up and existing customers doubling down.

Lets see how they get that across starting on Thursday.