Wincanton Share Discussion Threads

[sphere25] 10/8/2020 11:24

Nibbled a few more. It's close to breaking higher.

[molatovkid] 10/8/2020 10:53

I was quizzing my DPD driver and he told me they had 60 drivers and had upped it to 90 in our local depot.

Personally, I think online shopping has gone through the roof during lockdown.

[netcurtains] 10/8/2020 10:42

Could be heading for a bit of a breakout... No one move...(or breath)

[sphere25] 10/8/2020 10:35

As previously mentioned, the price has been held back by sellers in size at 185. This is the first time that the price action looks more positive. Should be bullish if we can push on and crack that 190 mark now. 190 looks reasonably guarded at the moment - need abit more volume.

[volvo] 10/8/2020 09:39

rivaldo, yes lets hope so.

These type of companies are being slowly picked up.

Of course during lock down, the outlook was grim for logistics, nothing moving about.

Plenty has changed now with WIN still offering 100 new vacancies, its growing.

So its time for the markets to start looking forward imo.

[rivaldo] 10/8/2020 08:39

Looking good today - hopefully just the start of a large re-rating.

S34icknote, just read back a little on the thread, it's all here and has been discussed in detail.

[s34icknote] 09/8/2020 16:49

Does any one know what the pension deficit is ?Looked at last years accounts .Says 24 million paid till March 2027 ?Any thought on this ?Is this why we are so lowly rated ?Sicknote

[volvo] 07/8/2020 11:16

Scarpa another company I have an interest in, just stated today things are not as bad as they and the market anticipated and in fact they are doing ok...so from a low base up 34% as I type.

I see similar patterns with WIN...all doom and gloom, shares trading at nr the bottom of its low's...except the company is indeed doing very well, compared to where the markets have them.

Trading statement will confirm this.

[netcurtains] 07/8/2020 09:48

Nice to see it open up... We need to get this into the 190s to 210 range...Delivery is in vogue (it should be on front cover)..

[volvo] 05/8/2020 09:56

Thanks it will be helpful to know how all these deals are bedding in.

Will also be good for the market to know we are back up to speed...and pushing on.

Quiet recovery to 200-210p before update is my guess unless the markets tank.

[edmundshaw] 05/8/2020 09:41

Trading update is 2nd October.

[volvo] 04/8/2020 18:54

....yes the directors just announced large options which is fine if they are all incentivised to push the share price higher which i understand they are.....base price 181.67.

I made my final top up today at 182p....this is a winner.

Talk to anyone involved at WIN the phone has been red hot since we closed everything because of the pandemic.....the new new is delivered to door.

...everyone is knocking on WIN's door, no one fancies a face mask....update due

[netcurtains] 04/8/2020 17:05

did WIN finish at 185p?

[lefrene] 04/8/2020 12:40

netcurtains, RMG should and could be an excellent highly profitable business except for two things,

1, government constraints upon how the business must operate, ie frequency of mail deliveries, and being forced to carry other operators mail for the 'last mile' at a loss, the 'last mile' being by far the most expensive labour/vehicle intensive part of the job.

2, the 'civil service mentality' of the management from top to bottom. Being seen to be enforcing protocols overrides all commercial considerations, plus there is a shocking lack of attention to detail in their traffic operations, and I presume that idleness permeates other areas of the business.

There's certainly plenty of room to make operational savings if a proper commercially minded management could replace the incumbent time servers. (I built up a driving agency of 200 drivers and have many times driven for RMG plus many other companies) If the likes of Amazon, (god forbid) got control of them, it would be making decent profits in a fortnight!)

[netcurtains] 04/8/2020 07:41

mikedon1946: Perhaps look at recent thread started by arthur_lamb_stocks - it did manage to high light EVE beds and FRENCH CONNECTION before they shot up... We've been hi-lighting NETNET stocks and working out if they are investable or not. I dont think we have any specific stocks in mind its just the FORMULA that is interesting ... Apparently most of them are not in the UK - mainly in Japan and elsewhere. I think there are just about 20 in UK.

[mikedon1946] 03/8/2020 21:46

As with Net
Slightly off topic

I'm not sure about Royal Mail

but best 5 growth/recover stocks

Got some money from a house coming and looking for opportunities

[netcurtains] 03/8/2020 21:00

Slightly off topic but do any of you think Royal Mail might be worth investing in too. I cant make up my mind.....
Any logistic thoughts?
Thanks
(I'm in WIN of course)

[volvo] 03/8/2020 20:09

ed lol...sure I'm invested but its real, they are employing 198 new members of staff in a pandemic recession...logistics is king apparently lol

[edmundshaw] 03/8/2020 19:17

Nice to see your enthusiasm here Volvo :)

[volvo] 03/8/2020 19:15

Just off the phone with WIN and they are on a recruitment drive, check the website, they see the future as uber positive ....unless we have another shut down.

[volvo] 31/7/2020 21:00

...just in wilmdav your post is porous on a massive scale.....if we used your scale most of the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 would be trading on pe's into the 50's ffs.

WIN are in the pole position as the world see logistics is all they have.

Truly see 400p within a year.

[mikedon1946] 31/7/2020 12:58

Yes very interesting,
but
this is old news these figures were known to the market earlier this year when the shares were trading £2.70+

After lockdown until the update on 13 May they were trading at £2.35+

But ESL and Wincanton share are performing in a similar way, which given the problems of ESL seems to undervalue Wincanton.

Wincanton are performing and winning business with at least 5 new contracts or extensions to their existing contract since that announcement.

Compare to ESL where there seems no positive news

[msehs] 31/7/2020 11:27

Nice insight that, interesting, thanks

[wilmdav] 31/7/2020 10:58

I have not checked back posts, so please forgive if the following point has already been made.

IMO the main reason for the miserly prospective p/e ratios is the hefty triennial pension deficit. This was last valued as at 01/04/07 at £221m. Since then approximately £67m has been paid off in accordance with agreements made at the time of the valuation. Those agreements also required that £18m would be paid in 2020/21 and £25m every year until 2027. However the trustees have agreed that £6m of the 20/21 payment can be postponed until 21/22 in view of the Coved19 pandemic.

Under current accounting rules these recurring cash costs are not registered in the P&L account or the Balance sheet. What are registered in these statements are the yearly pension calculations made in accordance with IAS 19. The failure of IAS 19 to reflect reality is displayed by the fact that the 2019/20 accounts showed a surplus of £94.4m!

Analysts are obviously aware of all this. How I handle it is to subtract the agreed year’s deficit reduction payment from pre-tax profit and adjust eps accordingly.

Current forecast for 20/21 pre-tax profit is £30.8m. I decided to deduct the full £18m payment even though £6m of it has been shifted on the following year’s £25m required payment. So the adjusted PTP is £12.8m. Assuming 20% tax, profit for the period will be £10.2m. No of shares is currently 124.54m so adjusted eps for 20/21 is 8.2p. Current share price is 181.5p so the prospective p/e comes out at 22.1.

A similar calculation for 21/22, adjusting for the agreed £25m payment, gives eps of 10.5p and a prospective p/e of 17.3. For 22/23, eps comes out at 16p and p/e of 11.3.

I am using current pre-tax profit consensus forecasts provided by Sharepad in the above calculations.

Actually these adjusted p/e’s are not unreasonable when compared to other stocks with similar growth projections.

However the next triennial deficit/surplus re-assessment will be as at 01/04/20. As usual, it will take approximately one year to complete. We will probably not know the outcome until preliminary results for 20/21 are announced in June 2021. My expectation is that the deficit and payment requirements will be revised significantly downwards. The discount rate used in the calculation will be affected by interest rates on high quality commercial bonds as at 01/04/20. In which case, I would expect this to be reflected in the share price in approximately 11 month’s time.

[volvo] 31/7/2020 09:37

...don't know many companies looking at growth atm, but WIN are recruiting big style.

800k sale/buy just clear this seller and we are away.