Wincanton Share Discussion Threads

[netcurtains] 17/6/2020 15:20

With pubs closed, restaurants closed and no foreign holidays....
The money that "Work from home office workers" will spend will nearly all be retail....

We should see some big spikes in sales soon..
Lots of deliveries required.

[owenski] 17/6/2020 15:01

"once free of the clerks of Brussels we can operate without handcuffs"

'free'....lol... no one is free or free of clerks, just the clerks of Westminster running the show then... That inspires confidence....lol

[petewy] 17/6/2020 14:37

Netcurtains: I agree with you pluses for Win that's why I was in them for GROWTH and INCOME at 250p 11+p dividend. My quarrel is now with price.
I can buy back in at a profit but if e.g.Aberforth Partners hold 22.06m shares and lost £2+ in dividends decide to sell a portion to reinvest for value...a lot of shares can come on the marketIf there were no IS's I would buy.

[netcurtains] 17/6/2020 14:25

( I see lots of beer, about 4th picture down)

[mikedon1946] 17/6/2020 14:22

Beer, dont know, they do Milk

[netcurtains] 17/6/2020 14:17

Well anyway BEER sales set to surge over the coming weeks as BBC stream live a premiership football match every night until end of season. Do WIN transport beer?

Wincanton probably the best tranpsorter of Beer in the world.

[lefrene] 17/6/2020 13:34

You might be forgetting the seizing up of the repo market on 17th Sept and the reasons behind, we were well on the slippery slope before the Covid thing came along to provide a smokescreen and an excuse to open the credit spigot.

It's the biggest economic mess in history, but there's no damage to buildings and infrastructure the rebuilding of which provide employment to the great unwashed, thus putting money in at the bottom across a broad spread.

I don't know how it's going to pan out, but the resistance of Boris to fund meals for poor children here, (he's now caved on that) suggests that he doesn't understand the significant breadth of poverty in the UK, or the damage that has when you run a consumer economy, where significant numbers have nothing left over from essentials, and thus cannot partake in consumerism.

We might get lucky, once free of the clerks of Brussels we can operate without handcuffs, a few freeports could generate a lot of industry and trade.

The thing helping Wincanton is that over regulation has choked off the small hauliers, we will see far fewer but bigger operators, which should help the pricing power of the big players.

[qs99] 17/6/2020 13:21

So likely Q1 will be poor 2021 results, but sitting on roughly EV/EBITDA of about 2.5 at the moment? No divi, but recovering markets potentially? Not going bust, pension surplus and plenty of debt/facility headroom? Have bought some as see this as a decent value play, DYOR

[mikedon1946] 17/6/2020 13:13

Thanks for your comments

We are no way out of the woods, but as a country we borrowed £1 Trillion over last 10 years created an artificial reduction of our economy with austerity. Boris's government had realised how wrong these policies were for the UK, and were before Covid, since then they have made sure the economy has not nose dived. Expect a full trillion to be put into the economy this year.

If you think we cannot afford think again, compare it to WW2. We had to spend a lot of money for over 6 years, and not much of it added any benefit to the real economy, and it cost a lot more in real terms than the 2 trillion spend I am predicting from 2009 to the end of the Covid crisis.

The Question is can we not afford to do it.

If the economy will need the type of operation Wincanton provide it is still a BUY

[netcurtains] 17/6/2020 12:30

Retail recovery will be bigger than you think. With MILLIONS working
From home this means loads more
time to SPEND MONEY. Can't spend
It on forign holidays so retail
Set to boom

[lefrene] 17/6/2020 12:13

The 'recovery' may lack depth, stores have been closed for months so there's bound to be some pent up demand which could swiftly drop off as unemployment bites. Companies cutting dividends will also see less money going into the broader economy. WIN might pick up business from the large number of smaller companies that will have gone under recently?

My guess the 'recovery' will be short lived, but large hauliers will always be needed especially as IR35 + Covid has seen a lot of owner drivers throw in the towel, thus there could be an opportunity to raise prices, since so many marginal hauliers will have dropped out.

The money has always been in the warehousing, but maybe losing all those small operators will help the haulage side.

[netcurtains] 17/6/2020 11:42

petewy: Thanks for your input. I think people are currently buying WIN as a good recovery play and if DIVI comes back later that will just be icing on the cake. Try and see it from the view point of investors looking for GROWTH not INCOME...
Reasons to buy:
1. Recovery play. Check
2. Director buys Check.
3. Oversold (RSI). Check
4. Potential future dividends Check
5. Small spread so lower risk Check
6. Actively traded so lower risk Check
7. High street just opening car use increasing. Check
8. Since 12th July British Bulls have set WIN to BUY. Check

[petewy] 17/6/2020 11:32

Some companies are using Covid not to pay a dividend. I sold out before results but why should I buy back in when I can get a divi for the price (190p)
60% of shares are held by IS. If one starts selling anything can happen.

[mikedon1946] 17/6/2020 10:15

Inportant statement in the release is - We will keep dividend payments under review as the year progresses with a view to recommencing payments as soon as it is prudent to do so.

The retained divi, increases the strength of the company, and they may release the retained final as the interim, when they can see where this is all going, no one knows how bad things will get but we do know that this company has it all in hand to the best of their ability to use Crystal Balls.

I think on this report they are still to cheap.

[netcurtains] 17/6/2020 09:26

US retail sales post record 17.7% jump in May, doubling estimates, as consumer activity rebounds...
(from tweet from Chris Ackers)


UK now open for business - will that mean 17.7% increase for WIN?

[edmundshaw] 17/6/2020 08:42

IMO now is a good time to buy. There are not so many good sized, established, resilient, good balance sheet businesses now with perhaps 50%+ upside on recovery. Recovered dividend is also quite decent right now at around 6%.

[mikedon1946] 17/6/2020 08:04

Result look good I think I am already regretting not buying when others lost faith, good company and expect great things

[edmundshaw] 17/6/2020 08:01

Disappointing that there is no dividend, but understandable. Results have been pretty good, I am confident this is pretty undervalued right now!

[netcurtains] 17/6/2020 07:26

OK year was excellent
But Covid is effecting big bits of business but....
From results:

"
Outlook

Given the effects of COVID-19, it is difficult to provide a reliable outlook statement for the coming year. However, logistics are crucial for most of our customers and for the country in general so we do not expect persistent and widespread major falls in the demand for our services. We are highly conscious of the need to manage cash carefully and have taken a number of measures to maintain liquidity within the business. All that said, in the medium to long term, we continue to see excellent opportunities for Wincanton.
"

[netcurtains] 16/6/2020 15:05

Thanks for info.

[tallprawn] 16/6/2020 14:54

Nice move this afternoon in advance of results tomorrow. I took a position a few days ago as this looked undervalued to me given the wider market recovery since April/May.Any half decent outlook statement tomorrow and this will be back over 200p in a shot.GL all.

[mikedon1946] 16/6/2020 10:32

Yes they are but I see no reason

But they say good things come to them who wait

Seem to be starting to move

They did not drop to my next buy price, I may go back in before they go up and increase my interest in them

[netcurtains] 16/6/2020 09:04

Yep ..... Oh well.

[s34icknote] 16/6/2020 09:04

These are lagging the market !!!Sicknote

[mikedon1946] 12/6/2020 21:04

I heard they had managers take 10% cut and senior managers 20% but the 10% is being reinstated

All looks good

want price to drop so I can buy more cheap good shares