||EPS - Basic
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White Young Share Discussion Threads
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|those crazy mining shares!!!!!!!! who the heck knows when will they bottom???????
a genuine understanding of how markets work 1 efficient market theory 0
|Must be a conspiracy?|
|update to #55|
|I feel my hypothosis that markets are not efficient has been supported by the many and varied examples of how i have accurately forecasted the PRICE at which markets have turned on this thread.
Id like to complement this proof by presenting further evidence, however in this instance forecasting the appoximate TIME at which a market may be likely to turn, in this case (and as the quoted post shows) i highlight a stock index, turning lower.
Leading academics inform us markets are efficient?
|the largest, most liquid and arguably most important market on the planet... huh
tpaulbeaumont 9 Aug'11 - 04:12 - 44 of 87 edit
So if perhaps Tbonds continue their gains past previous highs, thy could go all the way to see TYX at [...] a double bottom even around 2.470 or 2.200?
THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR July 21, 2012
Why We're Driven to Trade
With computerized traders that "hold" stocks for only a few seconds at a time and markets that can swing wildly in a matter of moments, long-term investing seems to be on the verge of extinction.
Perhaps this is inevitable. It turns out that short-term thinking is deeply embedded in the workings of the human brain. New research suggests that in order to avoid trading your accounts to death, you must counteract some of the very tendencies that make Homo sapiens the most intelligent of all species.|
|These random markets could turn anywhere...
Huh, got lucky again :)
|Markets can turn anywhere and are impossible to predict... seem to have lucked out, again :)
|thats not exactly your whole story but thanks anyway :)
if you took the time to read the annotations on the AAPL graph youre refering to, you'll note my model initially suggested short at 405, but as AAPL 'hiccuped along the way' for many months before getting there, i posted the models suggested prices that in the meantime may 'lure buyers in' if it dipped below 320, the next one of which was 310.
so ultimately long since 310 and after the $95/31% gain reverse to short at 405 which then declined $50/14%, yes S2.
it seems pretty straight forward to follow?
the next detail from the model was a suggested sell at 532, when it was 455, so if you had no position you could have bought and then sell at 532 for a $77/17% gain and if you already had the stock you could simply hold and sell at 532, and so on and so forth. thats the idea anyway. its very basic, but quite clearly curiously effective :)
I didnt trade any of these AAPL signals i should add, i just posted them as a matter of intrest, cos its a big stock, that affects the NDX and SPX. i usually only trade ftse and esx or dax, and eurusd and cable.
ive always maintained making a call or stating some analysis is alot easier than trading/making any money out of it, conversely all the best traders i know dont waffle on about moving averages, stochastics or trendlines ;)|
|WHY do traders keep making so many mistkaes, moving stops, running losses, over-leverage, averaging into losers ??? no matter how many books we read, trading videos we watch there always seems to come a time & situation when we BREAK THE RULES.
we may get away with this a few times but one of these days we don't and its back to square one.....start again, refreshed risk control.....then a few months / years later BANG same thing happens again !!!
round and round in a cycle of destruction|
|so TP based on your AAPL chart you've been LONG since $310 and have made a fortune right... ??|
|Huh, got lucky again ;)
|do u really want to trade macd ?|
|thats an excellent example of a number of chart buying signals at once ct :)|
|entry points, if u didn't trade the true reversal, buy the break of 50p or bounce from.
if not break above cloud which happened also to be resistance.
confirmation from other charts and volume entering the share and of course it was a NT buy.|
haven't much more to add to the debate, I like your header. I believe it was JC who said that ' if a blind man leads another blind man they will both fall in a hole ' On most bb's there is plenty of those posts.
Are the market's rigged against you, again yes and no.
My pet hate is > u have been saved one tenth of a penny for a yellow stripe trade.
Where it should say > thank u for assisting the mmakers to sit off the bid/offer and choose to deal or not, for your cooperation we have saved u one tenth of a penny in your spread price.|
|BLVN, market not that efficient !!!|
Studies from market veteran Charles Kirkpatrick, CMT, and many others have demonstrated that buying stocks and sectors with positive relative performance can beat the market in both good times and bad. The reason is that there is inertia in the marketplace as investors gravitate to what is working.
It is also the reason there are trends at all and of course it is the reason why trends eventually end. At some point "everyone" is thinking the same way and there is "nobody" left to buy. Price and relative performance start to stumble.|
|u have confirmation from the cloud chart, be cautious if the price falls below the cloud. Go back over your trades u will find that all your best trades established themselves above the cloud and all your worst trades established themselves below the cloud.|
|the price falls, but retraces above your resistance line, u may think that u have called it wrong, but as u watch the price falls and continues it previous direction.|
|u have an uptrend and the price stops going up, draw your line above the price, a basic truth, the price isn't going any higher until breaks above thus line, very simple but very true.
u have drawn your line, at this point u have no way of knowing if it's trend resistance or true resistance.
the price action goes sideways, u get a support line, u could have made profit by trading between these two points. the price action is spread over a few months, we now know distribution was going on, so it was more likely to fall than not.|
|The markets are so big, there is not enough money in the hands of the professionals who accumulate stocks, to move all stocks at the same time. So they rotate their trading, using different stocks at different times. Professional money will invest in stocks that, in their opinion will show the most profit. Once a stock has been accumulated and most of the supply removed from the market, a bull move is guaranteed in that targeted stock when overall market conditions are right.