Whitbread Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 24/3/2024 19:09

Dartboard, same here.

[dartboard1] 24/3/2024 17:23

Not sure I understand the idea of offloading the pubs. They will lose control of the breakfast quality. Will they have an agreement with the new owner that hotel guests come in and they recharge premier inn. What if the new owner shuts it down and converts the property. Not sure i would stay in a hotel without a breakfast option.

[libertine] 24/3/2024 11:59

Whitbread is set to sell or convert a third of its Beefeater and Brewers Fayre pubs estate after a private equity swoop collapsed.

hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/whitbread-takes-the-axe-to-beefeaters-and-brewers-fayre-pubs-xqcq33gdn

[philanderer] 22/3/2024 14:31

May be relevant to the last few months weakness, people feeling poorer.


German house prices suffer record plunge

German house prices have fallen at a record pace


Record fall in German house prices as gloom engulfs Europe’s biggest economy

[steeplejack] 21/3/2024 08:58

Why not!....there's been week or so to shake out some loose holders,interest rate cuts in prospect,technically built base around £32,results soon that may dispel fears.

[herewegouk] 21/3/2024 08:53

Why the bounce today ?

[tlobs2] 21/3/2024 08:32

All that panicking/doom and gloom for no reason at all ;-)

[essentialinvestor] 20/3/2024 09:54

This may not happen...IF available around the December '23 low (just under £31) might give an interesting buy area - barring something calamitous with the April FY outlook.

[essentialinvestor] 19/3/2024 13:35

Macro outlook is hardly great, Europe PMI's awful, particularly Germany.

However, in terms of the share price,
it's worth noting WTB is often prone is fat % moves over a short timeframe. Pretty standard fare - but if they warn on the outlook then likely under £30.

The meaty BOD Sell made me cautious (I highlighted it at the time) but looking to buy back in.

[srichardson8] 19/3/2024 10:04

Basically I think Whitbread is an excellent company doing the right things. I am just a trifle concerned by the recent price action and the possible reasons for it.

[essentialinvestor] 19/3/2024 09:24

Fair to flag up, whether discounted in the current share price we shall soon find out.

I've not bought back in yet, but getting tempted.

[srichardson8] 19/3/2024 09:16

I of course read this but please note the dates.

[tlobs2] 19/3/2024 09:06

srichardson8, read the most recent communication from the company on their performance......


RNS Number : 3136Z

Whitbread PLC

11 January 2024

Continued strong performance in the UK and encouraging performance in Germany

Throughout this release percentage growth comparisons are comparing Q3 FY24 performance for the 13 weeks to 30 November 2023 to the same period in FY23, unless stated otherwise.

Q3 FY24 highlights

-- Premier Inn UK:
o Total accommodation sales up 11% with strong demand in both London and the Regions

o Total RevPAR up 9% and up 39% versus FY20 with high occupancy and strong pricing

o Continued outperformance versus the midscale and economy ('M&E') sector with an increased RevPAR premium of GBP6.06 (Q3 FY23: GBP4.48)(1)

o Food and beverage ('F&B') continued to perform well with sales up 6%

-- Premier Inn Germany:
o Total accommodation sales up 47%(2) , led by the continued expansion of our estate

o Total estate RevPAR was EUR60 and RevPAR of our more established hotels was EUR66, in line with the wider M&E market

-- GBP300m share buy-back: on-track with 6.8m shares purchased so far for a total consideration of GBP226m

[bountyhunter] 18/3/2024 18:46

But those are not exactly news within the recent timeframe.

[srichardson8] 18/3/2024 14:49

How About

Minumum Wage Increase
Rotten weather, poor early Q1 trading (possibly)
Weak German Economy

as factors. I can't think of any others and hope that the price weakness is wrong and overdone. But it has bothered me.

[tlobs2] 15/3/2024 09:10

I'm pretty sure these "experts" put their price targets out based on their large corporate customers buying and selling requirements ;-)

[bigbertie1] 14/3/2024 14:32

yes, and it's a major reversal. In January (I think) we had Peel Hunt with target 4,000p, and Goldman Sachs 4,650, and in February Jefferies with 4,400p. There could be fears of a drop in REVPAR, and an adverse effect from weaker German economy, but I think will those will not be enough to derail the good long-term strategy.
(who are Bernstein, by the way)

[philanderer] 14/3/2024 13:32

No, its been falling weeks before that note came out.

[johndoe23] 14/3/2024 11:08

Maybe because of the broker price cut, for what that's worth

[philanderer] 14/3/2024 11:01

Really in the doldrums this one.

[philanderer] 13/3/2024 13:59

Bernstein cuts Whitbread price target to 3,200 (3,600) pence - 'market-perform'

[dudishes] 13/3/2024 11:56

Tks Waldron,

I had actually noted the new accom issue, interesting.

I will recommend Hold.

cheers

[waldron] 13/3/2024 07:44

fwiw

Take from it what you will

Summary

The company has strong fundamentals. More than 70% of companies have a lower mix of growth, profitability, debt and visibility.

The company's Refinitiv ESG score, based on a ranking of the company relative to its industry, comes out particularly well.

Strengths

The company's EBITDA/Sales ratio is relatively high and results in high margins before depreciation, amortization and taxes.

Over the last twelve months, the sales forecast has been frequently revised upwards.

For the last twelve months, analysts have been gradually revising upwards their EPS forecast for the upcoming fiscal year.

Analysts have a positive opinion on this stock. Average consensus recommends overweighting or purchasing the stock.

The difference between current prices and the average target price is rather important and implies a significant appreciation potential for the stock.

Weaknesses

The company is in a hindered financial situation with significant debt and rather low EBITDA levels.

With an enterprise value anticipated at 3.44 times the sales for the current fiscal year, the company turns out to be overvalued.

The price targets of various analysts who make up the consensus differ significantly. This reflects different assessments and/or a difficulty in valuing the company.

[waldron] 13/3/2024 07:38

Analysts' Consensus

Mean consensus
BUY

Number of Analysts
20

Last Close Price
33.02 GBP

Average target price
40.44 GBP
Spread / Average Target
+22.49%

High Price Target
49 GBP
Spread / Highest target
+48.39%

Low Price Target
17 GBP
Spread / Lowest Target
-48.52%

[waldron] 13/3/2024 07:20

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A CONTINUOUS UP TREND AS EASTER AND SUMMER APPROACHED



Upcoming events on Whitbread PLC

22/04/2024 Q4 2024 Earnings Release (Projected)

21/10/2024 Q2 2025 Earnings Release (Projected)

Enterprize Value EV INDICATES UNDERVALUATION APPARENTLY