Wandisco Share Discussion Threads

[tickboo] 31/12/2018 18:04

I bought some at 10.70 I think but haven't sold any, bought on the way down to the 3s and increased my holding by nearly 60%.Next year is make or break for definite and DR simply has to deliver as I'm sure the IIs will lose patience so getting another raise away would prove tricky. With the new recurring revenue model they should have more visibility and given many of the deals should increase in value as data needs increase DR may actually meet/exceed expectations. There's no doubt the trading update will be interesting and hopefully DR has made the numbers or there about as the CFO was confident costs were under control.

[jackdaw4243] 31/12/2018 17:23

Qruz

Good post. In short they need to generate some cash or the end of the money comes in 2019.

I cannot see any appetite for a placing if "Tech" stocks continue being out of favour.

Am I the only investor who bought at £8 to £10 and sold when I hit my stops. I did buy at the bottom of 2018 FWIW so clawing a bit back.

[qruz] 31/12/2018 16:33

Yes I did watch the same video on Edison where he basically said they had gone into 2H with some good numbers.

The problem for me is even if the above is true (what you put) we would still have only have 1H of a years cash on the Balance sheet. Lets say 2H is pure B/E from operating cash to profit (Which isn't likely!!)

14.6(1H18) is still burnt and we have 18 left, which is really 1H worth of cash to run and a tad. Now if the above is worse and they've burnt some cash or some of those profits become deferred income (profit to be realised months or years later for license model) the deferred income grows, but our cash is eaten away.


Looking at 1H17 RNS, they had
* Cash at 30 June 2017 of $9.9 million (31 December 2016: $7.6 million)...Then they did a raise in Dec.

I'm being very prudent here because the company hasn't lived up to growth expectations IMO. If we say 2H had half has half the cashburn of 1H.. call it 7m we then have 11m cash at end of 2018. It's not even enough to cover 1H19 based on 1H18 cashburn.

I can see a potential placing here January, last placing was 550, would be about 400 based on todays share price

All IMO.

[tickboo] 31/12/2018 15:41

The CFO stated that H2 starts with some $10m which are deals in place to be realised this half so that is already more than H1 contributed so reduces the cash burn. They also said they're after a larger number of smaller recurring deals like the automotive example (also have 20 other projects in mind). Given the flying start Azure had I assume H2 has accelerated so many more $100k-$200k deals have been signed by them. We've also had a $3m deal signed and they stated the majority of which will be realised this year. I'm not sure how much of the $1m source code deal will be realised this year but even if we only hit $14m H2 it will be a significant reduction in cash burn so the $4m cash you quoted should be $10m+ but you're right they need to have a decent H1 to ensure no additional raises are needed. I'd also expect Alibaba to contribute as they're growing their cloud revenues faster than anyone.

[qruz] 31/12/2018 15:28

Tickboo, If I look at 1H update.

Firstly Cashburn

* Cash overheads3 of $14.6 million (H1 2017: $11.5 million)

If this is the same rate of burn, we can expect cashburn of $29m for 2018 full year.

How much cash do we have?

* Cash at 30 June 2018 of $18.0 million (31 December 2017: $27.4 million)

So if we go with the above and same run rate by now we have ~4m cash left?


1H earnings resulted in:
*Adjusted EBITDA4 loss of $6.8 million
* Statutory loss from operations $12.2 million


Now if we look at 2H, we have had hardly any deals being announced to really challenge if WAND will meet their expectations for the full year.. even if they do meet it.

The problem is the deals are also license based, I just can't see this company being profitable for years... also cash is going to be raised to even get there, which comes at further dilution?


There is also $4.8m of long term debt

This is all IMO, be interesting to hear others thoughts on this.

[qruz] 31/12/2018 14:41

I'm now 40% down on this investment, if there's a lack of progress in 2H and Cash is depleting and a further raise is required before they can B/E I think I'll just take the loss and move it else where.

[tickboo] 31/12/2018 12:34

They are not expecting to be profitable this year but next, Edison forecast here - https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=23005&LANG=It also says hitting the revenue figure will depend on deals under negotiation so my guess is they'll fall short but hopefully they'll be some positive commentary on the recurring revenue model and a possible uplift in FY19 forecast. Hopefully we hear of some chunky deals in the coming weeks ahead of the update.

[jackdaw4243] 31/12/2018 12:22

Chairman's update will determine that IMHO, it will be interesting to see how much cash they have left and whether or not they are in profit or carrying on being "Prophets" saying there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[knighttokingprawn] 31/12/2018 12:21

I though there might have been a CMD this side of year end. Suggest we migh5 see tha5 in Q1 next year... reckon update comes late Jan ... no reason why not ..

[tickboo] 31/12/2018 11:25

Bamboo's post is looking good. Resistance at 4.80 breeched so hopefully not long to wait until we're nearer to 6 than 5.

[tickboo] 31/12/2018 10:38

The sooner the better assuming it'sA positive update. Hopefully they've hit forecasts.

[jackdaw4243] 31/12/2018 10:19

On the basis that the share price has tanked so much over the past year I would hope the sooner the better.

[bamboo2] 31/12/2018 09:36

jack, are you expecting a t/u in 2018?
Based on last year, I have 15/1/2019 pencilled in.

[jackdaw4243] 30/12/2018 16:42

Sad old management, what about the trading up date.

[tickboo] 30/12/2018 15:52

Another decent contract win RNS would surely have this through resistance although it'd be nice not to have to rely on one.

[bamboo2] 29/12/2018 16:15

Resistance at 480.
INVH&S looking good. 200sma flattening out. Min tp approx. 580
Potential turn 2/1/2019

[tickboo] 29/12/2018 13:24

So it seems AWS will win the contract although Azure have an outside chance. Confirmation that Fusion will be used as part of the mix will surely be the largest contract to date and will have decent recurring revenues too. Written by Billy Mitchell Nov 14, 2018 | FEDSCOOPThe Government Accountability Office has denied Oracle's pre-award protest of the Department of Defense's $10 billion commercial cloud computing contract JEDI.Oracle filed its protest in August, alleging that JEDI - formally, the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure - "virtually assures DOD will be locked into legacy cloud for a decade or more" because of its single-award acquisition strategy. But GAO concluded in its decision Wednesday that the single-award approach "is consistent with applicable statutes (and regulations) because the agency reasonably determined that a single-award approach is in the government's best interests for various reasons, including national security concerns, as the statute allows."GAO's findings are a big win for the Pentagon, which has been flooded with criticism from industry for its decision to award what could be a 10-year, $10 billion cloud computing contract to a single contestant. This decision signifies that, at least in the eyes of GAO, JEDI complies with procurement laws and regulations.Also Wednesday, Chris Lynch, head of the Defense Digital Service team that crafted the acquisition strategy, tweeted in support of the JEDI contract.In its protest, Oracle also contended that DOD wrote a solicitation that exceeded its actual needs and, in turn, limited the pool of competition. It also alleged an unspecified conflict of interest.The government watchdog, however, concluded that "the Defense Department provided reasonable support for all of the solicitation provisions that Oracle contended exceeded the agency's needs," and that "allegations regarding conflicts of interest do not provide a basis for sustaining Oracle's protest."Oracle responded to the dismissed protest, telling FedScoop in an emailed statement attributed to spokeswoman Deborah Hallinger, "Oracle believes that both the warfighter and the taxpayer benefit most from a rigorous and truly competitive process. We remain undeterred in our commitment to bring tremendous value and flexibility to our customers, including the Department of Defense. Oracle's JEDI bid represents a forward-thinking, next generation cloud focused on security, performance, and autonomy and a move away from the legacy cloud infrastructure that seems to be favored in the RFP. We are convinced that if given the opportunity to compete, DoD would choose Oracle Cloud Infrastructure for a very substantial portion of its workloads because OCI delivers the best, most performant and most secure product available at the best price."The decision isn't yet publicly available, but GAO hopes to release it in the near future.The controversy surrounding the single-award nature of the JEDI contract, however, doesn't end there. IBM also protested on similar grounds. A decision on that is expected by Jan. 18.Oracle - and IBM too, if its protest is also denied - can file a protest with the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. There is also the opportunity to protest with GAO again after JEDI is awarded, which is scheduled to happen early next year.Some in Congress are also taking exception to the contract. Reps. Steve Womack of Arkansas and Tom Cole of Oklahoma sent a letter in October to acting DOD IG Glenn Fine asking him to investigate JEDI, citing a belief that the contract seems to be "tailored to a specific contractor" and "runs contrary to industry best practices."That specific contractor, of course, is Amazon Web Services, which has been positioned as the frontrunner to win the JEDI contract. Until recently, AWS was the only cloud vendor with the Impact Level 6 capabilities required in the contract, but Microsoft announced in October that it will soon meet those requirements, expanding the pool to two vendors who can fulfill the contract.

[tickboo] 28/12/2018 20:47

Last year was mid Jan but who knows as the last one was late.

[qruz] 28/12/2018 17:38

When can we expect the next trading update?

[tickboo] 27/12/2018 18:00

Google, Microsoft and Amazon all down pretty heavily. Hope we have more RNSs like today. Want to hear that Alibaba is making headway.

[jackdaw4243] 27/12/2018 17:46

Did the USA Tech stocks have the same bounce back as the rest in the the "Wall Street Rally", a rising tide lifts all boats.

HNY to all holders and "FROAD" to all that are short.

[knighttokingprawn] 27/12/2018 14:55

Owenski— you are correct.

Think we are back on track now.

[tickboo] 27/12/2018 14:29

Yep i reckon Azure is booking lots of smaller deals ($100k-$200k) and most of which will have recurring revenues which I'd hope will translate into an increase in FY19 forecasts. Maybe getting ahead of myself but given the projected growth of the major cloud revenues I'd hope wand's revenues will grow in a similar trajectory.

[owenski] 27/12/2018 14:14

IBM of course being just one RTM, Chances of others chipping in with news should be favourable.

I guess these things take time to gain traction but I'd expect things to start accelerating at some point. Reading between the lines, I don't think the partnership with IBM was plain sailing and WAND had to do some work to help them understand what to do with the product, I gleaned that from a webcast by DR.

Microsoft Azure seem to be touting their systems intelligently via targeted advertising, again, I'd expect to see some results from that avenue too.