Wandisco Share Discussion Threads

[bobbyboyo] 14/11/2018 13:29

KTKP, I’m now out of the closet as far as forum participation is concerned. We have so much in common. I first bought in Wand at £12 then £14.50 to see it drop to 76p when I was taking a big risk and a shed full. My average cost is now a very low £2.24 and have approx 35k shares. I too targeted £15 to sell and have had sleepless nights since -Mathew decline from £12 heyho! I’m sticking it out not in blind ignorance but in long term support of their ever changing business model. Will I/we be correct?

[knighttokingprawn] 13/11/2018 18:36

Nimbo

I should disclose I am very long at £2.70 .. I bought on the blow up but have followed the story for many years... I had a plan to sell at £15 and buy more if it ever really hit the promised land .. I think the market opportunity is clear .. the execution is the issue ..

I got side swiped by the investor activity at £8-£12 and have been frankly surprised by the ferocity of the mark down .. I saw £ 6 as a floor .. so have carried the long back to the lows...

I “think” I have a good sense of what’s actually happening both in the sector and at Wand and this co is a significantly stronger better positioned company than when I originally bought the stock ..

So we wait .. but we might agree that it was never worth £12.50 this summer but is probably worth a lot more than £3.5!

[nimbo1] 13/11/2018 15:27

took some at 377 - Tickboo and Knight your positivity is commendable : )

[jackdaw4243] 13/11/2018 14:10

They also make planes, Boeing.

[knighttokingprawn] 12/11/2018 21:24

Isn’t Msft a stones throw from Seattle ?

[tickboo] 12/11/2018 18:56

So it is likely he has been to see AWS, hopefully we get some good news soon as this is hard to stomach. Im travelling tomorrow and will be offline all day so hopefully when I land it is a blue day.

[redface] 11/11/2018 10:05

Interesting...thanks!

[redface] 10/11/2018 15:55

Re. Tweet

Interested to hear where was it from??

I'll have 3 guesses:

1. Silicon Valley
2. China
3. Greasy spoon cafe in Romford

[knighttokingprawn] 09/11/2018 18:43

Anyone notice where DR latest tweet is from?

[owenski] 09/11/2018 16:05

The business model here suddenly changed. Punters were looking for large multi million dollar deals of the type that they had already been announcing, but then the orders seemed to dry up, the reason was revealed at the results - the business model had changed to recurring revenue driven by cloud adoption.

In real terms this means that the market has been disappointed from what was expected and now WAND have a new model that is at yet unproven, so theoretically, they could disappoint yet again

At 12 quid a pop this was predicting stellar growth, that has not happened, the decline is the response.

For a company with such a 'must have' product and with so many 'prime partners', the lack of sales news here is concerning.

152m m.cap may still prove to be expensive.

[asagi] 09/11/2018 15:31

I think that analysis is about right fuji99. However, I've had a good run on the short side and have this afternoon bought back, closing my short.

Asagi (no position)

[fuji99] 09/11/2018 15:23

I am watching this one for a while now.
IMO WAND needs to demonstrate it can do better with decent orders otherwise the share price will continue to drift lower and lower, day by day, until the results to make things clearer.

[knighttokingprawn] 09/11/2018 12:01

Asagi

All fair points:

FWIW .. I think they don’t need to announce anything to hit the forecast .. they do need to convert their bookings, but the bookings numbers are solid and have plenty of head room would be my guess.. I think there is justified concern relating to the backend nature of IBM busienss which likely won’t sign till December .. it’s entirely rational to press wand stock as they did “miss “ the half year and we are relying on a back end H2..

Having said all that , we are fast approaching a single announcement that will make the second half discussion a mute point (imo) ..

This stock has been a story stock , but I would argue the technology has been waiting for the market .. Data recovery is a use case IBM has given some traction to .. Hybrid cloud is only just hitting a tipping point .. my expectation is that MSFT see the value in Fusion for their strategy .. and IBM ( RHT) will double down in their efforts to justify their move into Hybrid .. and I expect in time Fusion to be part of that ..

Arguably Wand went public far too early . And if we’re advising them I’d still suggest they are 12 month from an IPO .. all this dirty washing in public is bad for business..

As for the short .. I could see you making a bit more cash as the clock ticks down, but think the risk reward now is not looking great .. I think 5 x Bookings is a floor and I believe £30-50 looks like a reaslitic expectation for where these guys are ..

Cfo , cto and CEO are buying stock .. interestingly the first time CEO has done that in the open market...

Lastly I have worked with companies who have entered into Co sells and OEM agreements .. and they are always long arduous process.. and never move at stock market pace .. they are hard to ink and patience is required to execute .. it doesn’t surprise that we are annualizing some of these announcements without yet material output .. it’s coming however.

[asagi] 09/11/2018 10:29

that's spot on, bookbroker. WANDisco has hyped and disappointed for years. While I remain short, I am close to closing. But the company seems incredibly able to chuck out +10% RNS whenever they feel like it, only for the excitement to dissipate. I think they need to announce much more than they have to meet forecasts and the clock is ticking away.

Asagi (short WAND)

[bookbroker] 08/11/2018 22:12

Until this company starts to produce real recurring and growing revenues it needs to be at least half this price, for years it has confounded the market by generating a buzz factor, and the chief executive and technical officer have singularly failed to match their hopes with expectations. It is has always extolled this story of its necessary role in compressing and seeemlessly moving large amounts of data from server to server, why is it that the performance has not been matched by those expectations. Is that because their technology has already been superseded! Either this will be taken over for a pittance or they will struggle on with fewer and fewer resources at their disposal.

[tickboo] 08/11/2018 15:14

Looks as if it will be even lower come next week, the trading update in Jan seems a long way away. Hopefully we get some good news before stop the rot.

[tickboo] 07/11/2018 16:36

Im back in the UK next week and if we are still trading down here Im going to get another 5,000 to take me to 67,500 as always happy to lower my average. Interesting in the Edison interview DR said they do not have an OEM with Google yet, interesting he said yet so perhaps they are in negotiations or my rose tinted are on, again!

[knighttokingprawn] 06/11/2018 18:17

Tickboo

I think the next few weeks will sort things out... Msft is transformational .. and takes wand properly to cloud .. IBM is nice , but will seem like small beer .. use cases beyond Data Recovery is what will drive the value for WAND and intensify the competition for a tightly held stock .. this has been candy in a sweatshop .. thank you bears .. and well done Tickboo ...

[tickboo] 05/11/2018 20:20

Hope so, it's been a depressing few months holding here although was glad to add some at 4 and below although I also added at 5.60 and higher. Hopefully turn things around ahead of the Jan update and if that's positive and forecasts are achieved all good again,

[bamboo2] 05/11/2018 18:53

Highest volume in a good while.
Will be interesting to see if the share price can push on upwards.

[tickboo] 05/11/2018 18:43

Decent interviews, I'm sure the major shareholders have told them to firstly hit FY forecasts and get on the offensive to get the share price out of the downtrend. That is a material deal but I doubt we'll hear of any sub $500,000 deals being announced as they are nit deemed material but they are the recurring deals ($100-$200,000) they are now going after. If IBM get one of their bit ticker deals it will likely be announced early Jan which has been the case in the past. Hopefully Wand are closing multiple deals as they need to in order to achieve the oustanding $6m which was needed from June 30 (CFO said they already had circa $10m to be realised in H2). I'd like to buy another 5,000 to take me to 67,500 but I don't have the funds at the moment.

I like KtoKP's post which, being long, I agree with and think worth re-posting.

Wand trade at 4x Bookings( probably actually lower than that)
Ceo CTO and CFO are buying stock
IBM oem relationship is doubling down on JV spend.
IBM have made a huge bet in Hybrid cloud with RHT
MSFT co sell is likley to convert to OEM
MSFT revenues likley to be announced this CY
Core share holder base havnt sold despite the biggest rout in Tech for several years and a huge drain in liquidity in small and mid cap.
Company has cash to execute beyond 2019.

These are the facts as I see them ..

[aishah] 05/11/2018 15:11

WANdisco’s $1m application lifecycle management (ALM) deal with a leading Chinese tech company will add support to our FY18 forecasts, although big data/cloud deals remain key to driving the inflection. The recent retrenchment in the share price appears to be discounting a miss, but we continue to believe that achieving the required inflection in H2 could be a watershed for the perception of this business’s growth fundamentals.

[bamboo2] 05/11/2018 14:29

hb, a test of approx 500 gives us a potential bowl or INVH&S reversal pattern.

Tp's if confirmed, approx 550 and 575

No more potential turns on my chart until 13-14/11/2018

note, post edited for clarity.

[bamboo2] 05/11/2018 12:54

Added last tranche for now at 416