Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[eezymunny] 18/3/2020 08:16

Depends on your risk profile zangdook. Your point is understandable but the only thing I'd sell VLE for is gold or perhaps food retailers. If the banks go bust VLE is not much use of course. I guess the banks get bailed again but if not I personally have plenty of gold, toilet roll, canned spam, a dummy and a "told you so" sign.

Be careful out there. This either blows over or the whole world is totally bust (inevitable at some point given central bank idiocy of course).

Owning gold has seemed sensible for a long time to me. Only to be confiscated I expect!

[zangdook] 18/3/2020 05:43

I understand the arguments, but I sold some of my VLE shares to raise cash to buy elsewhere because, even allowing for the potential for appreciation here before the market in general recovers, some stocks have fallen so far that I feel their short- or medium-term potential is greater. For example, what are the odds of each of VLE and RDSB doubling from here within a year or 18 months? I'd like to have some of each. VLE will pick up bargains but it then needs time to turn them around before their value will be reflected in the share price

[deanowls] 18/3/2020 03:06

Can the title of the conversation be changed?

[rivaldo] 17/3/2020 23:32

It does seem crazy that some have been selling today at less than the value of VLE's cash pile alone! Especially when with the entire population eating at home now sales of Shire's pies, sausage rolls etc from the likes of Aldi, Lidl, Morrisons et al are probably benefiting nicely.

To reiterate, the m/cap at 1060p is £19.4m - less than the £19.7m cash at 30/6/19 and which would likely have increased further as at the year end.

I've emailed ADVFN twice about their m/cap for VLE in the Fundamentals section in the thread header post being incorrect, but nothing's happened. Typical.

[papy02] 17/3/2020 15:07

Main risk(*) here is key person risk. I hope the bruvvers are reclusive!

(*) though more a risk to potential upside than risk of downside from current SP!

[eezymunny] 17/3/2020 14:55

You know the market's going to be throwing up opportunities when people are selling VLE for a value less than cash on b/s, and Shire in for free - which is in just about the ONLY sector I can think of that shouldn't be affected Corona :)

I love bear markets...I hope this one absolutely smashes all records..

[boadicea] 06/3/2020 15:45

When the dust clears, which may be some time, there are going to be many 'good' companies that have fallen into administration or similar due to lack of lquid reserves at the start of the crisis. Many may be capable, in sales and trading terms, of a strong bounce back but lack the cash to kick it off. We don't know what the official financing arrangements (government/banks) might be in such cases. Almost certainly there will be many sme's that fall into the finacial cracks in the system and thereby a prospect of a rich hunting ground for VLE to deploy its mainly liquid resources.

The firmness of the VLE share price probably shows that my view is shared by others. The market (=all of us and certainly myself!) with some obvious exceptions (travel companies etc.) is having considerable difficulty in grading the magnitude of the effects as between companies, from the big losers (manufacturers lacking imported components?)to the marginal losers, or possibly marginal or large gainers (on-line education?). How transient will be the effects? Will a rush of investment into circumventory measures prove to be a long term waste of money?

Certainly I see VLE as a firm hold since experience shows that the management is unlikley to make poor decisions in deploying its mountain of cash.

[rivaldo] 06/3/2020 13:55

Worth noting that the cash pile in the above article is understated - the true position re available cash to the Group is £19.7m, since the £2m of loans in Shire Foods are secured against its freehold property.

[rivaldo] 02/3/2020 15:36

Looks like the Shareprophets following are late risers :o))

[spob] 02/3/2020 10:07

yes he knows a lot about spotting fraud

and you can learn a lot from him about how the markets really work

although he does tend to go off on a tangent when doing his podcast (thankfully they are subscription only now)

i'm sure he's insane :)

[spob] 02/3/2020 08:50

Shareprophets doesn't have much of a following then :)

price not moving


tried a dummy buy

couldn't buy any anyway

[rivaldo] 28/2/2020 10:14

Worth remembering that the m/cap here at 1125p is just £20.6m (ADVFN's m/cap in the thread header is incorrect), based on the 1.834m shares in issue.

I assume VLE's net cash position after the latest acquisition will be around £19m-£20m given Shire Food's H2 seasonal bias.

Which values Shire Foods, including its freehold property, at...not a lot.

As an aside, I'd have thought more people will be eating in, some with Shire Foods' meals, rather than going out to restaurants in the current virus panic (and given the recent rotten weather too!).

[zoolook] 25/2/2020 13:40

Good port to be in currently

[rivaldo] 25/2/2020 11:34

Shire client Lidl has opened its 800th UK store and is investing £1.3bn in its store expansion over 2021 and 2022 to reach 1000 stores:



"Lidl’s expansion is matched by continued strong sales growth. The most recent set of Kantar data shows that the supermarket is the fastest-growing supermarket in the UK, with gross sales growing 11.1% year-on-year."

[yamaha865] 20/2/2020 15:29

Nice little jump today

[eezymunny] 12/2/2020 08:15

FYI. Launching a food brand always seemed a reasonable idea to me. Will be interesting to see if it does well...

[yamaha865] 11/2/2020 19:43

Indulgence had FH property of £1.35m held at cost, looking back in the accounts this was purchased before 2013 and so should be worth significantly more. Also £1.4m of FH 'adaptations' which should enhance the FH value, and £0.5m of plant and equipment. According to the RNS the property assets will be held in a separate entity which i think bodes well for Volvere rationalising these assets and realising value if their is excess capacity.

Indulgences revenues have declined quite a bit over the last few years from £8m in 2016 to currently circa £5m. This would indicate that it has quite a bit of manufacturing spare capacity, and so possibly surplus manufacturing property assets. However, there could also be great sales synergies with customers of Shire which is a much bigger business, and so this could help utilise Indulgence's manufacturing capacity.

For Shire, based on its H1 turnaround and assuming a similar rate of revenue/profit growth as per H1, I think it could get close to £2m pbt.

So a year or two down the line, based on Indulgence's historic profitability and Shire's growth, we could be seeing combined £3m- £3.5m pbt. That's with £20m or so cash and a market cap of £22m.

All very speculative of course, but that is essentially the reason Volvere comprises about 30% of my portfolio!

DYOR

[simso] 11/2/2020 14:01

Yes there is lots of information in the IPL Accounts. The last Balance Sheet we can see from May 18 looked pretty strong, with Net Assets of £4m.

Fixed Assets £3.5m (mostly the Freehold and "Freehold Adaptation" , but also including £0.7m of plant and machinery which would appear to be an average 4 years old, given original cost of £1.4m and Depreciation policy is 8 years). There was £3m of Current Assets comprising £0.6m of cash, £1.4m Debtors and £0.9m of stock. There was >£2m of Creditors, so Net Assets £4m.

It is 20 months since that Balance Sheet of May 18, and could easily imagine £1m of those £4m Net Assets have been reduced by losses since. Probably mininal cash left, and Creditors further stretched and increased, I would guess. However, give that IPL was bought from Administration, it in unlikely that those Creditors will be paid in full...or anything like it.

One could still imagine the Landers have bought £20 notes for a fiver apiece again, and would back their turnaround abilities to return this to profit and cash generation.

[rivaldo] 10/2/2020 12:23

Good to see from IPL's accounts that they were moving into "free from" recipes. These are not only very popular but command high margins (those with coeliac disease particularly are forced to pay whatever is charged).

With scope to rationalise the freeholds (and maybe sell some or all of them) plus other synergies this purchase could be terrific value for £1.25m given a prior £7.6m turnover (currently £5m annualised).

[piedro] 08/2/2020 13:53

Thank you zoolook

[zoolook] 08/2/2020 11:22

Here Piedro

[piedro] 08/2/2020 11:18

yamaha8657 Feb '20 - 16:48 - 3245 of 3251
"Just looking at IPL's 2018 accounts"

yamaha, please excuse my ignorance, but where can the 2018 accounts be found?

TIA.