Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 04/10/2018 10:16

I certainly chose the wrong morning to go out and be away from the screen :o))

So £23.1m consideration plus £20.4 existing cash equals £43.5m cash |(including the deferred element) - that's almost 1200p per share in cash alone.

Plus the £2.4m of freehold property, plus the value of Shire Foods and Sira.

So the current share price still looks rather low to say the least.

Is the net £23.1m receivable net of or before any bonus payments to the Landers? From the wording I suspect it's after those bonuses due have been deducted. Also, 83% of the gross £31m is £25.7m, which leaves a lot of leeway down to the net £23.1m.

Anyway, congrats to the Landers are due once again. To turn a net £0.73m into £31m is remarkable in such a short timeframe.

Now let's see if we can dispose of Shire Foods too....

[yamaha865] 04/10/2018 10:09

True Callumross but at least now the value is clearly crystalised so hopefully we'll have a decent chance of getting to a £13-£14 range soonish.

Question is- what to do with the money? I think they really need to be looking at another share buy back or even, dare I say it, a special dividend.

[callumross] 04/10/2018 09:33

Unfortunately in his valuation Simso estimated net worth as £29m when it is actually £23m - so the £15.50 valuation he stated would have to come down by a couple pounds a share.

[hpcg] 04/10/2018 09:31

Bought back in at 1090. Very happy to let the Landers invest the cash, and at a slight discount. I think the sale is excellent timing and clearly has capped downside and avoided a potentially difficult trading period. I'll pick up more should it drop back further.

[caterham88] 04/10/2018 09:23

I'm looking forwards to reading ST's take on this, given it was one of his 2016 Bargain Shares in the Investor's Chronicle.

[dsct] 04/10/2018 09:09

Well ! That's not very helpful !
Simso and I recently shared our calculations, and due to this sale, will have to revise them ! lol

Seriously, not a bad uplift from the £1.25m invested in 2015 to the £23.1m net receipt from the sale !

I'd imagine VLE will now be looking for another turn-around, as Shire and Sira have already been 'worked' upon, so unless they've a major change for either of these two, then they'll be needing something new to keep busy. I hope, and doubt they will, just splash the cash on something less worthy.

Well done all holders :o)

[melf] 04/10/2018 09:07

I calculate that the cash alone per share post disposal will be over £12 yet people are willing to sell this morning for £10.50. Am I missing something?

[modform] 04/10/2018 08:51

What a remarkable share, hats off to the management

[greek islander] 04/10/2018 08:47

Your post was excellently timed Rivaldo.
What a brilliant bit of business. What will be next?

[greenroom78] 04/10/2018 08:36

Nice. £31m for Impetus.

[rivaldo] 04/10/2018 06:31

Impetus are recruiting - this is for their team at the "Jaguar Land Rover site in Coventry". Perhaps JLR are the recently won contract for Impetus:



"Do you pride yourself on your passion for accuracy and strong administration experience? Dedicated and enthusiastic but lacking challenge in your current position? If the answer is YES Impetus Automotive are recruiting and we want to hear from you.

Due to continued success and growth, we are now looking to recruit a Process and Data Coordinator to join our team at the Jaguar Land Rover site in Coventry. This position is offered on a fixed term contract basis until March 2019."

"JLR has committed to become a world leading luxury car manufacturer as one of its strategic aims. The effective management of data plays a critical role in how JLR exercises its ability to exceed customer expectations and drive performance on a global scale.

This role of Process and Data Coordinator is to ensure appropriate and adequate management and maintenance is undertaken throughout the lifecycle of JLR retailer data. The role will encompass activities such as mapping data flows, ensuring data centric processes are followed and standards for data quality are met. Within this role, you will be responsible for...

etc"

[rivaldo] 01/10/2018 11:28

FYI I've now updated the thread header post for Simso's post with his new 1553p per share valuation.

PS : any corrections/improvements welcomed.

[malnu] 01/10/2018 11:01

Looks like a share buy back coming this week...?

[kazoom] 28/9/2018 14:00

FWIW - I was thinking the other day that it might be good to have new thread without the numbers in the title (of course with a link back to all of the excellent content here), but it's not a big issue to be honest.

It's not nearly as annoying as "A stock on a eps of one?"

[rivaldo] 28/9/2018 12:49

No probs - very busy this weekend, but will incorporate simso's post into the thread header asap afterwards.

[zoolook] 28/9/2018 12:15

glaswein

I did mean the title (shame it can’t be changed - maybe worth emailing advf support?) but having simso’s analysis as the summary would bring it up to date

[glawsiain] 28/9/2018 10:24

Hi Riv, I think Zoolook is referring more to the summary, underneath the title. This could be updated with Simso's valuation.

[rivaldo] 28/9/2018 09:59

Hi zoolook. It's impossible to change a thread title I'm afraid.

Is the consensus that I/we should start a new thread just because of the title, or shall we stick with this thread? Next time around I'd start a thread without reference to specific figures and focus on what VLE actually does.

[dsct] 28/9/2018 09:31

Another thanks to simso for the breakdown #2933

I've been playing about with the figures, to try and guestimate the Y/E.

At present we have a share price of 930p based upon the last Y/E EPS of 56.4p and 16.5 P/E.

My assumptions are:
1) 34% uplift between H1/17 and H2/17 being replicated on H1/18 giving a Y/E revenue of £52m
2) 10% PBT margin (perhaps optimistic?). Giving 5.2m OP.
3) 20% tax - £4.2m PAT
4) 15% Non-controlling interest - £3.4m Attributable Profit

Finally giving 92.1p EPS x 16.5 P/E = £15.20 SP

Basically, within a whisker of simso's figure, but worked from a different angle.

[zoolook] 28/9/2018 08:12

Perhaps you could change the thread title to reflect those figures

[rivaldo] 28/9/2018 08:10

Excellent summary Simso, cheers - encouraging to see a 1553p NAV arrived at using reasonably conservative assumptions.

I took the liberty of pasting your summary elsewhere. Hope that's OK.

[eezymunny] 27/9/2018 15:51

Someone who needs 45 quid to buy lollipops?

[melf] 27/9/2018 15:09

Trade reported - 5 shares sold!.....I'm lost. Has anyone got an explanation? Who would sell 5 shares?

[rhomboid] 27/9/2018 12:50

Thx Simso ...I’ve taken the diabolical liberty of sharing your post on Twitter as I wasn’t sure you were on Twitter.

The chief Q for me reamains how long will they retain Impetus..& just how big a beast it becomes before they dispose of it..this could be a source of considerable upside over & above your valuation

[eezymunny] 27/9/2018 12:37

That's quite a good assessment IMO simso.

Hardest bit is of course the Impetus valuation. I'd say a wide range of possibilities could be considered reasonable. Anything from 5-15 x taxed profits? Even at the very miserly bottom of that range Impetus would net to VLE about £12m, giving a VLE valuation of c. £40m. It looks quite hard to lose money here unless business collapses completely. Not likely IMO but you never know...